Defying expectations, Iran-backed Iraqi militia groups refrained from carrying out attacks on US military facilities inside Iraq after Israel’s 13 June strikes on Iran. Yet, in the weeks following the war, a series of militia drone and rocket attacks targeted vital infrastructure and oil facilities in central and northern Iraq. Why did Iraq’s Iran-aligned paramilitary groups abstain from joining Tehran’s counter-attack on US military bases, despite earlier pledges to retaliate if Washington intervened during the Israel–Iran war, and yet unleashed violence across the country only a month later? We argue that Iran-backed Iraqi militias chose to remain uninvolved in the Iran–Israel war because their aims are more strategic: to simultaneously redefine Iranian influence within the Iraqi state and maximise their own interests. Escalating against US or Israeli targets would have risked derailing this trajectory, diverting resources, and inviting disproportionate reprisals, including targeted leadership decapitation. Rather than becoming embroiled in open conflict, Iran-linked paramilitary factions in Iraq are intensifying their focus on contesting the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2025. However, this restraint does not signal a rejection of violence, but rather its selective deployment – reserving violence for consolidating domestic authority, while avoiding actions that could trigger costly external retaliation.
Why Did Iraq’s Militias Sit Out the Iran–Israel War and Why it Matters (Burcu Ozcelik and Tamer Badawi – RUSI)
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