Iraq’s fragile stability is threatened by a shifting Middle Eastern order. The region’s balance of power is being violently upended. It will be difficult for Iraq to avoid being drawn into the upheaval (Renad Mansour – Chatham House)

For the first time in recent memory, Iraq has found itself on the margins of a major Middle Eastern conflict rather than at its epicentre. Open conflict between Iran and Israel arrived during a rare window of relative stability and developmental progress. Yet, this moment of fragile calm is unlikely to endure. Iraq is on the brink of being drawn into what appears to be a transformative upheaval in the regional order. The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq reshaped the geopolitical landscape and ushered in a new era – one in which Iran rose as a dominant regional power. The foundations of that order are now being disturbed in the wake of the 7 October Hamas attacks, Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, and the regional conflict that has followed. The full trajectory of this transition remains unclear. But it is almost certain to be tumultuous and violent.

Iraq’s fragile stability is threatened by a shifting Middle Eastern order | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank