In Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel “The Sun Also Rises”, the Scottish war veteran Mike Campbell is asked how he slid into bankruptcy. “Gradually, then suddenly”, he replies. A century later, it is the leaders of Europe who might be muttering the phrase under their breath—not because their countries are facing insolvency but because the geopolitical vise they have been caught up in for nearly a decade has suddenly tightened, presenting them with seemingly impossible policy choices. On one side of the vise is Donald Trump’s America. On the other, Xi Jinping’s China. It has been clear since at least 2018, when the first Trump administration began ratcheting up pressure on European countries to exclude Huawei from their 5G networks and to stop selling advanced chip equipment to China, that Europe risked being squeezed between the world’s two superpowers. Under Trump’s successor and predecessor Joe Biden, the vise tightened further, as the United States toughened up export controls and unveiled restrictions on outbound investments and connected vehicles. But in recent weeks, the pressure has shot up to unprecedented levels, as Beijing has hit back with blunt force.
Watching China in Europe—June 2025 | German Marshall Fund of the United States
