From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Argentina-USA, Australia, Australia-India, China, Germany, India-Mauritius-Western Indian Ocean Region, Indo-Pacific, Pakistan-Balochistan, Russia, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), Syria, Thailand, US, US-Russia-China
Argentina – USA
(Hector Torres – Centre for International Governance Innovation) South of the Rio Bravo, US President Donald Trump is feared, except when it comes to Javier Milei, Argentina’s libertarian president. Milei is counting on Trump to sway the International Monetary Fund (IMF) into lending fresh money to its largest debtor, Argentina, which owes it US$44 billion. Trump and Milei share common ground: both champion dreams of making their countries “great again,” disdain climate policies and present themselves as political outsiders. Yet their approaches diverge sharply. Milei is a firebrand free-market libertarian determined to dismantle the state, while Trump reveres tariffs — “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” — and wields them to pursue his “two sacred rules: buy American and hire American.”. Despite their stark differences, Milei and Trump get along remarkably well. During his campaign, Milei pledged to replace the Argentine peso with the US dollar. He hasn’t (yet) followed through, but once in office, he lost no time aligning Argentina fully with the United States (and Israel), even becoming the first head of state to visit Mar-a-Lago to personally congratulate Trump on his victory. – Milei’s Tango with Trump – Centre for International Governance Innovation
Australia
(Anna Sergi – The Strategist) The ’ndrangheta, the Calabrian mafia, plays a significant role in the global cocaine trade and is deeply entrenched in Australia, influencing the cocaine trade and engaging in a variety of illicit activities. A range of ethno-geographic criminal groups facilitate the production, supply and distribution of cocaine to Australia’s highly lucrative consumer market. ASPI’s recent report highlighted the emerging threat posed by Brazilian crime groups. But such new players must be considered alongside the threat posed by multi-generational groups that have become well entrenched in Australia. – Understanding ’ndrangheta operations in Australia | The Strategist
Australia – India
(Nidhi Priya – The Interpreter) The maritime relationship between Australia and India has developed considerably over recent years, but it has yet to reach its full potential. As both countries face mounting challenges in the Indo-Pacific, such as China’s growing assertiveness and the increasing competition for strategic maritime routes, there is a pressing need for deeper cooperation between them. This matters because a stronger Indo-Australian maritime alliance would not only benefit both nations but also contribute to a balanced, rules-based regional order that works towards peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific. – Why Australia–India maritime ties matter | Lowy Institute
China
(Ying Yu Lin, Thomas He – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted two live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea in February without providing customary notification to Australia or New Zealand and causing at least 49 civilian aircraft to divert course. The Tasman Sea drill was designed to demonstrate the PLA’s long-range power projection capability and to prove that the People’s Republic of China can break through the second island chain. The Tasman Sea drill also was timed to coincide with several high-level diplomatic meetings and likely was designed to deter the trilateral security partnership AUKUS from deeper alignment. – The PLAN’s Tasman Sea Drill: A Military Response to AUKUS – Jamestown
(Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs – Center for Strategic & International Studies) China has rapidly established itself as the world’s dominant shipbuilding power, marginalizing the United States and its allies in a strategically important industry. In addition to building massive numbers of commercial ships, many Chinese shipyards also produce warships for the country’s rapidly growing navy. As part of its “military-civil fusion” strategy, China is tapping into the dual-use resources of its commercial shipbuilding empire to support its ongoing naval modernization. Foreign companies are inadvertently helping to propel China’s naval buildup by buying Chinese-made ships and sharing dual-use technologies with Chinese shipyards. U.S. policymakers need to act quickly in coordination with allies and partners to address the economic and national security threats posed by China’s shipbuilding industry. This report offers a detailed policy roadmap for how Washington can disrupt China’s military-civil fusion strategy, erode China’s market dominance, and increase shipbuilding capacity within the United States and key partner countries. – Ship Wars: Confronting China’s Dual-Use Shipbuilding Empire
Germany
(Andrew G. Bonnell – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The results of the German federal elections held on 28 February 2025 were quickly clear to everyone; now the traditionally major parties of the centre right (Christian Democratic Union and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union: CDU/CSU) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) are hard at work in the negotiations for a new, so-called “Great Coalition” between the two. These negotiations are being conducted with an unaccustomed sense of urgency. – Germany moves to the right, but left gets a second win – Australian Institute of International Affairs
India – Mauritius – Western Indian Ocean Region
(Harsh V. Pant, Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Mauritius on 11 and 12 March marks a crucial continuity in the India-Mauritius bilateral relations. Additionally, it gives further impetus to India’s Mission SAGAR—Security and Growth for All in the Region—an important pillar of Modi’s vision for the Western Indian Ocean Region. The newly elected Prime Minister of Mauritius, Navinchandra Ramgoolam, has invited Modi as the Chief Guest for the Mauritius National Day celebrations on 12 March. While the focus of the visit is clearly maritime security, other issues—particularly health and education—will feature on the agenda. In recent years, maritime security on the coasts of the Western Indian Ocean Region has emerged as India’s strategic priority. In February 2024, India inaugurated a new airstrip and jetty at Agalega Island in Mauritius, reflecting its interest in playing the role of a net security provider in the region. – Modi in Mauritius: China and western Indian Ocean in focus
Indo – Pacific
(Daisuke Kageyama, Marcolino Goncalves – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Sharing disaster lessons plays a crucial role in strengthening resilience across Indo-Pacific countries. It fosters unity and collaboration, promoting international cooperation to enhance regional preparedness and prosperity by investing in human capacity, scaling up traditional knowledge, and leveraging technology. – Disaster Lesson Sharing: A Path to a More Disaster-Resilient Indo-Pacific – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Pakistan – Balochistan
(Sushant Sareen – Observer Research Foundation) The insurgency in Balochistan is becoming ominous and has been palpable for a couple of years. But the gravity of the situation in Pakistan’s biggest province failed to register in the Byzantine corridors of power in Islamabad. In Pakistan’s capital city, the only thing that mattered was controlling and manipulating the state’s institutions to ensure the survival of the hybrid regime controlled by the military junta of General Syed Asim Munir and fronted by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The fires in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) received cursory coverage in the media. The public discourse has predominantly revolved around Imran Khan and his trials and tribulations in prison, and the regime’s machinations in countering his narrative, and his popularity. Balochistan was too distant from Islamabad and even Lahore for anyone to bother about what was happening in the restive province. – Pakistan bogged by growing ferocity of Balochistan insurgency
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin faces a serious shortage of police officers amid rising, increasingly violent crimes that are predicted to only worsen with the return of veterans of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Many Russians are taking things into their own hands as well as forming self-defense units, many of which are well-armed. The Vladimir Putin regime views such groups as potential threats to itself but has no choice due to the lack of law enforcement. Putin has failed to take any meaningful steps to address the police shortage as doing so would take both money and men away from his military action against Ukraine despite the risks to public order and political stability. – Putin’s Police State Increasingly a State Without Enough Police – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is ramping up its military efforts—despite discussions of a ceasefire—with speculation about a second wave of mobilization. New Cossack battalions and expanded funding suggest a growing paramilitary force, indirectly increasing Russia’s mobilization potential. Several recent developments indicate that Moscow is preparing for a prolonged conflict. Among these are an increase in reservist training, difficulties in ending military contracts, and discussions about converting drone units into a separate branch of the Russian military. Moscow’s military buildup suggests that Putin’s goals of the complete destruction of Ukraine as a viable democratic and independent country have not changed. Russia’s expressed willingness to participate in talks—as opposed to requesting talks themselves—probably is not a genuine peace signal. – Russia Increasing Military Buildup Ahead of Negotiations – Jamestown
(Olga Tokariuk – Chatham House) Mariia Brusova has been displaced twice. First, in 2014, when Russian proxy forces invaded and occupied her home city of Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. Then in 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion, targeting her new home, Kharkiv. Like the majority of six million Ukrainians, who have become refugees since February 2022, Mariia fled Russian missiles without knowing where she would end up. Eventually, she settled in Germany, where she has been living with her teenage son ever since. She was able to get her Ukrainian degree recognized and now works as a nurse in Germany. ‘Even if I wanted to return, I wouldn’t be able to have a decent life in Ukraine,’ she said. ‘Even if Luhansk is liberated, it will still be unlivable in for at least 10 years.’ – The Ukrainian refugees being called home | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Syria
(Rahaf Aldoughli, Chatham House) The surprise toppling of the murderous Assad regime in December by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its coalition of armed rebels was met with a mixture of joy, disbelief and anxiety by ordinary Syrians. Since then, the new interim government, led by HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, has promised to unite a divided country and steer Syria towards an inclusive political future. In February, hundreds of Syrians gathered at a hastily organized two-day national dialogue conference in Damascus to set out a roadmap for this historic transition. – Syria needs security – can Al-Sharaa build a united army to provide it? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Philip Eliason – The Interpreter) It was only a matter of time until the Haya’t Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) gunmen of Syria’s post-Assad interim government resorted to violence against non-Sunni Muslims. Reports emerged early on 9 March about large-scale round-ups, home invasions and subsequent street executions of Alawite Syrians. On 6 and 7 March, more than 800 members of the former ruling Alawite sect (a schismatic branch of Shia Islam) were, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, executed by HTS fighters and associated Sunni Muslim gunmen including foreign fighters. This took place in the Alawi heartland of Syria’s Latakia and Tartous governorates. The International Committee of the Red Cross has called for access to allow medical and humanitarian relief to be given to the survivors. The United Nations has decried the wave of attacks. – Syria’s de facto leader faces home truths | Lowy Institute
Thailand
(Craig Keating – The Interpreter) Thailand’s National Anti-Corruption Commission announced recently it will indict 44 former MPs of the now-dissolved progressive Move Forward Party for seeking to amend Section 112 of Thailand’s criminal code, better known as the lèse majesté law. Twenty-five of the MPs are now with Move Forward’s successor, the People’s Party. If convicted, they face being barred for life from political office. Formally, the law protects only the king, the queen, the heir apparent and regent from defamation or insults. However, courts have also punished people for comments about other royal family members, even long-dead kings from generations past. The law is by far the world’s harshest with up to 15 years’ jail per offence. Sentences are consecutive: people can face terms exceeding 50 years. And anyone can file a complaint, on which police usually feel obliged to act. – Royal defamation law reform in Thailand: Lost in the echo | Lowy Institute
US
(Chatham House) Trump’s first term saw chaos in his cabinet, a wall on the southern border that was never built, and an ‘infrastructure week’ that never arrived. This time, Trump’s administration is loyal, prepared and executing. The momentum behind Trump’s policy agenda has taken almost everyone by surprise. – The world upended: Trump’s first 50 days in power | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Russia – China
(Glenn Chafetz – The Strategist) The Trump administration’s effort to divide Russia from China is doomed to fail. This means that the United States is destroying security relationships based on a delusion. To succeed, Russia would need to overcome more than a century of hostility and distrust. Both Russia and the US would have to reorient their relationships with allies and adversaries; and the US would need to replace China’s economic support to Russia. Russia would also have to be sure that the US would fully abandon its commitment to democracy and human rights for the long term. None of this will happen. – The US dividing Russia from China? Forget about it | The Strategist
