From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Afghanistan, Argentina-US, Australia, China, China-Tasman Sea, Europe, Europe-US, Germany-Europe, Haiti, Humanitarian Aid, Japan-US, Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Lebanon, Middle East, Myanmar, Nuclear, Russia-ASEAN, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), Somalia-Islamic State, Strategic Metals, Sudan, Syria, UK-France-Germany, Ukraine, US, US-China-Europe
Afghanistan
(Marvin G. Weinbaum, Naade Ali – Middle East Institute) Afghanistan’s neighborhood is in the midst of a consequential restructuring of its security architecture. Perhaps unsurprisingly, key regional actors Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and China have been continuing to adjust their defense plans and security partnerships to meet the growing threats posed by domestic and cross-border terrorism. But at the same time, these four countries have also been looking for new ways to fill the vacuum in southern Asia left by the United States military’s departure from Afghanistan and the sharply scaled-back American political influence throughout the region. These considerations have prompted Islamabad, Kabul, Tehran, and Beijing to reassess their mutual relations as well as their ties with external powers. Evidence of this emerging regional dynamic can be seen in Chinese efforts to draw the area’s countries into its security and economic orbit as well as in Iran’s search for strategic partners to the east to help it weather its multifaceted challenges. The shifts in the regional landscape are also being shaped around an ideologically driven, insecure, and terrorist-hosting Afghanistan that covets international respectability, and a politically embattled Pakistan beset with militant Islamic extremists it knows it cannot quell alone. Meanwhile, the US, with its geostrategic priorities elsewhere, has largely acted as a bystander to these consequential regional developments. By withdrawing from Afghanistan, the US had hoped to put behind it two decades of deep, ultimately failed engagement with the region; yet it may find that by continuing this policy of benign neglect it is placing American security increasingly at risk. – US disengagement and new regional security dynamics in Afghanistan’s neighborhood | Middle East Institute
Argentina – US
(Ignacio Albe, Valentina Sader – Atlantic Council) Earlier this month, President Donald Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the United States that will go into effect in March. He has also ordered the preparation of reciprocal tariffs based on the import duties charged by other countries on US goods. Although there is still much uncertainty over what the implementation of these trade measures will look like, many countries, and especially historically protectionist ones such as Argentina, could feel the hit. Argentina is at a critical moment for the country’s economic stabilization, as Argentine President Javier Milei pushes forward his reform agenda seeking to grow the country’s economy while bringing down inflation. This is a goal that Argentina cannot accomplish on its own. It was no surprise, then, that when Milei visited Washington last week to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), he also held meetings at the International Monetary Fund and with Trump. – Milei came to Washington wanting freer trade. What would that mean for the US and Argentina? – Atlantic Council
Australia
(Eric Lies – The Strategist) Japan’s Mogami class is clearly the best choice for Australia’s general-purpose frigate program. Compared with its very capable competitor, the Meko A-200 from Germany, the Mogami design needs a smaller crew, offers deeper magazines and has a newer system for combat control. The project, Sea 3000, is intended to replace the Anzac-class general-purpose frigates with as many as 11 ships, part of a larger program to expand the Royal Australian Navy’s surface fleet. TKMS’s Meko A-200 and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ Mogami class are the shortlisted contenders. Australia plans to order three ships of the chosen design from the winning contractor’s shipyard, taking first delivery in 2029, and build the rest locally. A decision is expected this year. – Mogami class offers strong technical advantages in Australia’s frigate competition | The Strategist
China
(Jacob Mardell – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing’s economic control of port operations at strategic chokepoints across the world, many of which are part of the Maritime Silk Road initiative, pose a threat to the United States and its allies. Two Chinese state-owned firms, COSCO and China Merchant Ports, control 12.6 percent of global throughput. Beijing could also exert significant influence on the third-largest Chinese player, privately-owned Hutchison Port Holdings, which works extensively with PRC state-owned enterprises and has participated in strategically significant projects. Hutchison also controls two ports on the Panama Canal. Under pressure from the United States, Panama’s President Murillo announced his government will not renew the memorandum of understanding on the Maritime Silk Road signed with Beijing in 2017. Leveraging the economic power of state-owned shipping firms is part of Beijing’s strategy to become a strong maritime power. – PRC Dominance Over Global Port Infrastructure – Jamestown
(Willy Wo-Lap Lam – The Jamestown Foundation) President Xi Jinping unveiled the “2025 Action Plan to Stabilize Foreign Investment” and met with leading entrepreneurs for the first time in seven years, in an effort to reinvigorate the private sector and court foreign investment. The plan seeks foreign investment in sectors Beijing sees as strategic, such as biotechnology, telecommunications, education, and healthcare. Xi’s photo opportunity with industry leaders seems intended to show that the country’s industrial policies are bearing fruit for favored firms who, while nominally private, have deep ties to the party-state. – Xi Seeks to Woo Foreign and Domestic Business – Jamestown
(Johanna M. Costigan – The Jamestown Foundation) The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War to promote a distorted version of history in order to stoke patriotism among the Chinese people. Official remembering of the war has changed over the last 80 years, with the contributions of the Nationalist and American forces highlighted only when the Party seeks warmer relations with Taiwan and the United States. The Party relies on places such as the Songhu Memorial in Shanghai to weave local history into its preferred national war narrative. This year’s commemorations will be promoted as part of a “red tourism” agenda, under which the CCP has poured resources into tourist locations to integrate them with sites related to Party history. – War Memorials put the Party Front and Center for 80th Anniversary – Jamestown
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing believes that the multipolar world it has spent decades calling for is within reach, judging by recent high-level speeches in Europe, Russia, and elsewhere. Beijing’s conception of multipolarity diverges in important ways from that of the West. Moscow has been central to Beijing’s approach to advancing multipolarity, and President Xi Jinping has tended to discuss key foreign policy strategies during visits to Moscow. While the United States attempts to peel Russia away from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the PRC is attempting the same with Europe, where it is pitching itself as a stabilizing force in a turbulent world. According to Foreign Minister Wang Yi, “support for China’s complete reunification” is fundamental to an “equal and orderly multipolar world.” – Multiple Multipoles: Distinguishing Definitions Between Beijing and the West – Jamestown
China – Tasman Sea
(Guangyi Pan – Australian Institute of International Affairs) China’s unprecedented naval drills in the Tasman Sea signal a bold shift in its military strategy. Timed with US Indo-Pacific Commander Samuel J. Paparo’s visit to Canberra, this move tests regional security dynamics amid the Trump-Putin deal, challenging strategic stability. – Testing the Limits: China’s Military Actions in the Tasman Sea and Strategic Implications – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Europe
(Max Bergmann – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The idea of a common European army has been discussed continuously since the European project began in the early days of the Cold War. The Eisenhower administration even successfully cajoled European leaders to agree to create a common European army only to be thwarted by the French parliament. The European project was a few votes from launching as a military project rather than an economic one. The idea of a common European force was revived in the 1990s as the European Union was formed, but the concept lost favor due to U.S. opposition and commitment to NATO. – Why It’s Time to Reconsider a European Army
(Jarrah Turner – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Europe faces an undeniable shift in its security landscape. The Trump administration’s ambiguity around NATO and Article 5 has exposed the risks of over-reliance on the US. While NATO remains crucial, increasing European defence spending and calls for greater autonomy from significant EU leaders signal a shift toward a more self-sufficient security framework. The EU, originally an economic organisation, has since developed into a political entity. With the right leadership and careful planning, it could further evolve to incorporate a military dimension. – Waking a Sleeping Giant: The Case for the Rearmament and Independence of Europe – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Europe – US
(Richard Youngs – Carnegie Europe) The early weeks of Donald Trump’s second presidency have sent shock waves through the democracy-support community. With the United States sliding toward semi-authoritarianism, Trump and his team eulogizing illiberal leaders, the administration’s leading figures attacking European democracies, and most U.S. external democracy funding having been frozen, the whole international democracy agenda is being shaken to its core. While the situation is still highly fluid and U.S. policies are likely to fluctuate uncertainly over time, it is clear that the ill winds of this new era present unenviably thorny challenges for the EU and European governments. – European Reactions to the U.S. Retreat From Democracy | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Germany – Europe
(Judy Dempsey – Carnegie Europe) Friedrich Merz finally has the job he has long craved. Once sworn in as Germany’s new chancellor, probably before Easter, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) wants to move quickly to deal with the plethora of problems facing his country and Europe. Chief among them is the current U.S. administration, led by President Donald Trump, which is undermining the democratic institutions that underpin the West and the transatlantic alliance. – Germany’s Chance to Lead Europe Strategically | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Haiti
(UN News) The ongoing emergency in Haiti is crushing children’s chances of an education and a better future as scores of youngsters are recruited by heavily armed and violent gangs, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned on Friday. – Haiti: Massive surge in child armed group recruitment, warns UNICEF | UN News
Humanitarian Aid
(UN News) UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Friday that severe cuts to humanitarian and development funding by the United States will have devastating consequences for millions of vulnerable people worldwide. – US aid cuts will make world ‘less healthy, less safe and less prosperous’: Guterres | UN News
Japan – US
(Dalbir Ahlawat, Satoru Nagao – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s meeting with President Donald Trump on 7 February proved to be a historic event, highlighting the deepening ties between Japan and the United States. The summit was the second bilateral meeting of Trump’s current presidency, following his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The sequence of these meetings sends a clear message: Japan remains a key strategic partner for the US. – Ishiba-Trump Summit: A Cornerstone of Stability in the Indo-Pacific Region – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
(Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı – German Marshall Fund of the United States) In a February 27, 2025 statement that could have far-reaching implications for Türkiye, the Levant, and beyond, Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK—a designated terrorist organization that has waged a separatist insurgency against Türkiye for over four decades—called for his party to be dissolved. – A Turning Point for Türkiye and the Region? Öcalan Calls for the PKK’s Dissolution | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(Defne Arslan, Rich Outzen – Atlantic Council) A (possible) farewell to arms. On Thursday, Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), called on the group to disband and disarm. The militant group—designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and others—has fought the Turkish state for decades, and its affiliate groups are also active in Syria and Iraq. The stunning turn from Öcalan prompts all sorts of questions. So we turned to our experts for answers. – Is this the end of the PKK and its conflict with Turkey? – Atlantic Council
Lebanon
(Emirates Policy Center) The election of Joseph Aoun as president and Nawaf Salam’s success in forming a government reflects a radical shift in Lebanon’s political balance, marking a decline in Hezbollah’s dominance over national decision-making. Lebanon’s internal power struggle is now focused on restructuring state institutions and redistributing security and administrative positions, especially as President Aoun seeks to regain control over security agencies and curb Hezbollah’s influence. President Aoun’s security strategy is centered on three key pillars: establishing a state monopoly over internal security through the military; appointing security officials loyal to his administration; and strengthening foreign security partnerships to gain international legitimacy, particularly in his efforts to contain Hezbollah. Both Aoun and Salam have pledged to rebuild war-affected areas. Notably, Salam has tied reconstruction to the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the ceasefire agreement. This presents a major challenge for Hezbollah, as the reconstruction process depends on foreign assistance. Hezbollah realizes that its continued financial crisis and the deterioration of Lebanon’s economic situation will erode its popular support base and influence inside the country. These challenges may force the group to adapt to the evolving political landscape. – Emirates Policy Center | From Security to Reconstruction: Perspective of the New Lebanese Era on Key Domestic Issues
Middle East
(Ameer al-Kaabi, Hamdi Malik, Michael Knights – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On February 23, Lebanese Hezbollah held its official funeral for deceased leader Hassan Nasrallah. The Beirut event garnered significant attention from Iraqi militias, who placed great emphasis on the proceedings. Several high-profile Iraqi figures and factions were present, reflecting the strong ideological ties between Hezbollah, Iraq’s muqawama (resistance) groups, and their political supporters. – Hassan Nasrallah’s Funeral: Iraqi Militia Response and Attendance | The Washington Institute
(UN News) UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Friday stressed that the fragile ceasefire in Gaza must hold, urging all parties to honour their commitments and prevent a breakdown of the agreement. – Gaza: Unified Arab position will ‘help guide the way forward’ | UN News
Myanmar
(UN News) Myanmar is mired in one of the world’s worst human rights crises, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said on Friday, describing conditions there as “a litany of human suffering.” – ‘A litany of human suffering’ in Myanmar, warns UN rights chief | UN News
Nuclear
(UN News) There were just under 150 incidents of illegal or unauthorised activity involving nuclear and other radioactive material reported last year, according to the international nuclear energy watchdog’s monitoring database tracking these incidents. – Alarming trends in nuclear material trafficking highlight urgent security gaps | UN News
Russia – ASEAN
(Emil Avdaliani – The Interpreter) Russia cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expanding – the incentive for the new-found cosy relations largely stemming from Moscow’s confrontation with the European Union and the United States over Ukraine. Moscow has looked to Asia to mitigate the economic pressure from the imposition of Western sanctions that followed its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s growing partnerships with China, North Korea and Iran have been central to its pivot, but cooperation with ASEAN has been little discussed. – Russia’s ASEAN embrace | Lowy Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(James M. Lindsay – Council on Foreign Relations) What a difference twenty-four hours makes. Yesterday, President Donald Trump was walking back his recent criticisms of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, going as far as to say he could not believe that he had called Zelensky a “dictator.” Today, Trump held an acrimonious meeting with Zelensky that culminated in Ukrainian president being asked to leave the White House and a joint press conference being canceled. – Trump and Zelensky Clash in the Oval Office | Council on Foreign Relations
(Atlantic Council) They squared off in the Oval Office. After a heated exchange with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance in front of the press corps, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left the White House on Friday without signing a promised minerals deal and with the future of negotiations to end Russia’s war against his country in doubt. Zelenskyy “can come back when he is ready for Peace,” Trump wrote in a social media post. Where does the blow-up leave US-Ukraine relations? What does Moscow make of all this? What’s the way forward for Europe? – The Trump-Zelenskyy meeting just blew up. What now? – Atlantic Council
Somalia – Islamic State
(Mustafa Hasan – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) In its latest propaganda campaign, the Islamic State is underscoring the strategic significance of Somalia in its expansionist agenda. – Somalia: The New Frontline in the Islamic State’s Global Expansion | The Washington Institute
Strategic Metals
(Huw McKay – The Interpreter) It is increasingly clear that stockpiling of strategic metals (defined as metals essential to military applications and/or high-end mixed-use technology) needs to become a major plank of national strategies for military preparedness and mobilisation. China’s dominant position in the processing segment of the value chain of strategic metals is well documented, and its conduct with respect to export controls increases the urgency. Here, the West suffers from an inability to provide the right incentive structures to motivate the required investments to make this current point of weakness a future point of strength. But there is a way through. – How the West can shore up its strategic metals supply chain | Lowy Institute
Sudan
(UN News) UN humanitarians on Friday warned again that thousands of families could starve in the coming weeks inside the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur. – Children already dying in Sudan’s stricken Zamzam camp: WFP | UN News
Syria
(Devorah Margolin, Aaron Y. Zelin – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) With the clock ticking on the post-Assad honeymoon period, Washington still has time to acknowledge the realities on the ground by providing crucial U.S. know-how and strategic support to the international aid, recovery, and counterterrorism missions. – Post-Paris Steps in Syria Could Be Decisive | The Washington Institute
UK – France – Germany
(Chatham House) As Donald Trump moves to reshape America’s foreign policy, we discuss what this means for the allies in Europe. Can the the United Kingdom, France and Germany forge a new path or is transatlantic unity fading fast? Bronwen Maddox is joined by the chair of Chatham House Sir Simon Fraser, former Wall Street Journal editor-in-chief Gerard Baker, Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow with our International Security Programme and Sebastien Maillard, an associate fellow with our Europe Programme. – Independent Thinking: Can the UK, France and Germany forge a new transatlantic path? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Ukraine
(Henry Sanderson – RUSI) The US appears to have secured a stake in future revenues from Ukraine’s mineral resources, with an agreement between the two countries expected to be signed imminently. After details have been finalised, Ukraine could provide 50% of future revenues from its natural resources into a jointly managed US–Ukraine fund, according to the agreement published this week. Both parties will see strategic benefits from the arrangement. Ukraine may see a hastened development of its minerals industry, while the US will ensure that China does not become a mineral beneficiary of any Russo-Ukrainian peace deal. A future Ukraine that is integrated into Western rather than Chinese supply chains has a high strategic value to Western thinkers. Indeed, one Republican insider from Trump’s first term argues that securing resources simply to prevent China gaining control of them, regardless of whether the resource is ultimately developed, may be part of the US administration’s strategy. Negotiation of the agreement has been fraught, with reports of aggressive tactics from multiple teams with unclear mandates pushing sometimes outrageous demands – Unlocking Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth Requires More Than a Trump Deal | Royal United Services Institute
US
(Clayton Seigle – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Since his second term began on January 20, 2025, President Trump has clearly signaled a desire for lower oil prices. Executive orders, including “Unleashing American Energy,” as well as his remarks to the Davos World Economic Forum audience on January 23, outline Trump’s case for bringing down the price of oil. Apart from the obvious direct advantage of reducing costs for consumers and businesses, Trump has associated the benefits of lower energy prices with two strategic priorities: first, as an instrument for taming inflation. Trump believes that a lower energy price environment will pave the way for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates and stimulate economic activity. Second, Trump has asserted that lower oil prices will hasten an end to the war in Ukraine, ostensibly because Moscow would be deprived of oil export revenues sufficient to sustain its war effort. This reason, however, may have been superseded by recent events, including a February 12 phone call between Trump and Putin, a bilateral meeting of advisors in Riyadh on February 18, and Trump’s February 24 prediction that the war could end within a few weeks. – Carrots, Sticks, and Sledgehammers
(Anna Singer, Joseph W. Kane – Brookings) American households are facing higher expenses on a variety of fronts: homes, cars, groceries, and more. But bills for one of the most basic and essential services—water—are hitting many households especially hard. From drinking water to wastewater, these bills vary depending on the exact customer type, geography, and other factors, but all told, millions of households lack access to “affordable” water—paying at least 3% of their income on these services, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This burden can be even higher for lower-income households; in some cases, they can pay up to 40% or more of their income on water bills. – Millions of Americans lack affordable water access. Here’s how local utilities can help.
(Milo McBride, Daniel Helmeci – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Revolutionary shifts are underway in energy and mineral geopolitics. Renewables are now the cheapest energy systems on most of the planet and the fastest growing sources of electricity in human history. Cost improvements for battery storage are making renewables reliable and putting electric vehicles (EVs) at imminent-cost parity with gas cars. Clean tech has become a central demand driver of critical minerals, which have dual use applications in the defense sector. These technological transformations will influence the future of industrial power—and the United States is behind China in almost every sense. Bipartisan goals of mineral autonomy and technological superiority can only be realized through collaboration with allies and partners given a lack of unilateral resources, know-how, and intellectual property. Under the past two administrations, the United States accelerated a foreign policy to advance its interests in energy technology and related minerals—with mixed results. – Minerals, Manufacturing, and Markets: Foreign Policy for U.S. Energy Technology and Minerals | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Bentley Allan, Milo McBride, Noah Gordon, Daniel Helmeci, Jonas Goldman, Daevan Mangalmurti, Debbra Goh, Leonardo Martinez-Diaz – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The rise of clean energy creates enormous economic and diplomatic opportunities for the United States, but also presents significant strategic and geopolitical challenges. We highlight three aspects of the problem: clean energy technologies are essential to America’s economic future, but competition is heating up, and the United States is losing the race to lead in new technologies. In this paper, we argue that a focused industrial strategy supported by international partnerships can help the United States compete for technological leadership in a new age. – How the U.S. Can Stop Losing the Race for Clean Energy | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Michael Pezzullo – The Strategist) The United States is a secure power. Situated in a hemispheric citadel, and protected by wide oceans, the US could comfortably withdraw from being the arbiter of the geopolitical fate of Eurasia and still enjoy a significant margin of security. Such a US could still project power around the globe. However, it would do so selectively, in the pursuit of narrowly defined interests and objectives. It would need few, if any, allies. It would remain a powerful global economic actor—fuelled by a massive domestic market, deep private wealth, leading edge innovation, and high population growth. – The geography of American power | The Strategist
US – China – Europe
(Katja Bego – Chatham House) As Europeans have been left reeling by the events of recent weeks which appear to spell the end of the transatlantic alliance as we know it, China sees an opportunity. Indeed, when China’s foreign minister Wang Yi took the stage at the Munich Security Conference, he not only called for Europe to take part in the negotiations for peace in Ukraine, but also proposed a wider rethink in Sino-European relations. Although Wang Yi endorsed the bilateral Russia–US negotiations mere days later (and China’s role in the Ukraine war has been far from benign), some European leaders, such as Spain’s foreign minister José Manuel Albares, have expressed willingness to take Beijing up on the offer. Resetting the relationship with Beijing may indeed offer some opportunities – not in the least the ability to hedge between China and the US – but it also comes with significant risks. – Trump is pushing Europe and China closer together. Europe should tread carefully | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
