From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Australia
(Miah Hammond-Errey – Lowy The Interpreter) Artificial Intelligence is already here, diffused through the economy in different ways. So, Australia needs to accept a few conflicted realities. We have a deeply worried population, with what are – let’s face it – some pretty legitimate concerns about AI and big tech companies. We also have an economy that will be left behind if we don’t enable Australian companies and entrepreneurs to create and adopt AI. We have people that need to be prepared with AI (and other) skills for future jobs and contributions to society. – Byte-sized diplomacy: The search for safe AI | Lowy Institute
Australia – Indonesia
(Yohanes Sulaiman – Lowy The Interpreter) Australia and Indonesia signed a defence agreement last month, declared by both sides to be a significant upgrade to their military relationship. The question, however, centres on what is really significant about this new agreement? – A step, not a leap: Assessing the Indonesia-Australia Defence Cooperation Agreement | Lowy Institute
China
(Matthew Johnson – The Jamestown Foundation) New Network Data Security Management Regulations approved by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Council will serve as a national-level framework to clarify and enhance the implementation of existing laws, including the Cybersecurity Law (CSL), Data Security Law (DSL), and Personal Information Security Law (PIPL), while also superseding subordinate measures from local and ministerial authorities. The Regulations aim to routinize audits of all data stored in the PRC, applying broader and stricter data security controls, particularly over “important data,” which includes categories affecting national security and economic information—including intellectual property. Companies handling such data will need to voluntarily disclose and submit to audits by the Cyberspace Administration of China. The Regulations will extend the PRC’s data security laws to cover both domestic and international data processing and ensure compliance with PRC security requirements for cross-border data flows, which will likely accelerate foreign entities’ compartmentalization and localization of data storage related to the PRC. – Beijing Strengthens Data Security with New Regulations, Expanding Control Over Domestic and Cross-Border Data – Jamestown
China – Russia’s War of Aggression in Ukraine
(Taras Kuzio – The Jamestown Foundation) Since the Kremlin began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the West imposed its sanctions against Moscow, Russia has been relying on China to supply materials to maintain its military-industrial complex. China does not wish to see Russia defeated as this would set back its common ideological goal of building a new global order with itself as a major center of influence. China is not a neutral actor in Russia’s illegal war of aggression and is duplicitous on Ukraine’s territorial integrity and, as the “decisive enabler,” has no moral right to be involved in peace talks. – China Enables Russia’s War of Aggression Against Ukraine – Jamestown
Climate Action, Energy Transition, and Sustainable Development
(Lydia Powell, Akhilesh Sati, Vinod Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) Since the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997, CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions have grown by an annual average of 1.7 percent. This is faster than the 0.9 percent annual average growth of CO2 emissions in the seven-year period (1990-97) prior to the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. The failure of the Kyoto Agreement is attributed mostly to the fact that the largest emitters were not included. The United States of America(US), top emitter at that time, was not part of the agreement by choice, and China and India, the second and third largest emitters, were not included by design. In 2015, the Paris Agreement introduced the concept of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), to eliminate differences between countries in terms of historic contribution to climate change and capability to address it. The result was that countries offered CO2 reductions close to what they would have achieved without the agreement. The Conference of Parties (COP) sessions that followed the Paris Agreement have ended with similar agreements, but CO2 emissions continue to increase. – Carbon emission reduction: negotiating guilt (orfonline.org)
European Union
(Louis Bearn, Jonathan Bentham – IISS) With the new focus on protecting critical maritime infrastructure, Europe’s overstretched navies are grappling with introducing new capabilities for monitoring and surveillance to replace legacy systems which have already gone out of service. – Europe’s critical-maritime-infrastructure protection: still in the pipeline? (iiss.org)
(Atlantic Council) “This is an existential challenge.” In his long-awaited report on European competitiveness published on Monday, former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi issued a clarion call about the dangers of lagging growth and productivity in the European Union (EU). The lack of both, he explained, poses a direct threat to Europe’s ambitions, independence, and social model. “Never in the past has the scale of our countries appeared so small and inadequate relative to the size of the challenges,” he warned. Draghi’s solution? A continent-sized increase in investment of more than $880 billion per year. (As a share of gross domestic product, that’s more than double the investment during the Marshall Plan after World War II.) – Five questions (and expert answers) about Draghi’s new report on European competitiveness – Atlantic Council
India
(Sayantan Haldar – Observer Research Foundation) Rapid transformations are underway in India’s security preparedness. The commissioning of the INS Arighaat, a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), into the Indian Navy on August 29 has further bolstered India’s national security preparedness. Importantly, INS Arighaat joins INS Arihant, fully operational since 2018, as India’s second SSBN. This has further enhanced India’s nuclear triad, which alludes to a nation’s ability to launch strategic nuclear delivery systems from land, air, and sea. The commissioning of the INS Arighaat is poised to add to India’s evolving deterrence capabilities against potential adversaries at sea. In light of the rapidly intensifying security dynamics in the Indian Ocean and China’s steady inroads into the region, New Delhi has sought to prioritise deterrence capabilities to secure its national interests. – Prioritising deterrence in India’s national security plans (orfonline.org)
Iran – Russia
(Mark N. Katz – Atlantic Council) Today, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that Iran has delivered close range ballistic missiles (CRBMs) to Russia, which he expects Russian forces will use against Ukraine within a matter of weeks. At the same time, the US Department of the Treasury announced the imposition of additional sanctions on Iranian and Russian individuals and entities, including Iran Air. These moves can hardly come as a surprise to Moscow and Tehran and will not serve to get either to change course. The real question is how the Iranian transfer of CRBMs to Russia will affect the Russia-Iran relationship. Specifically: Does Russia’s dependence on Iran, first for armed drones and now for CRBMs, give Tehran a degree of leverage over Moscow? And what would Tehran want to get from Moscow with that leverage? – What does Iran get for sending ballistic missiles to Russia? – Atlantic Council
Mexico
(Magdalena Rodríguez Romero – Brookings) Despite improvements in educational attainment, women globally still face significant barriers to economic, social, and cultural rights due to structural issues like harmful social norms and unpaid care work. In Mexico, young women have surpassed men in education but still face unequal economic and social rewards, highlighting the need for a deeper understanding of gender inequalities. Initiatives like Co-meta and GT-SCE aim to address these inequalities by providing marginalized women with education and skills, promoting gender equality through collaborative and systemic approaches. – Education is failing young women in Mexico. But what can we do about it? (brookings.edu)
(Jason Marczak and María Fernanda Bozmoski – Atlantic Council) All eyes will be on Mexico’s Senate as it prepares to vote on Wednesday on an eighteen-point judicial reform package. A two-thirds majority of the 128-seat Senate is required for passage. According to pre-vote tallies, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s reforms remain one vote short of the eighty-six votes needed. But if the reform does pass, its constitutional changes will likely be front and center for US legislators, who will soon begin their review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) ahead of the trade deal’s six-year mark on July 1, 2026. – Mexico’s proposed judicial reforms could put the USMCA on shaky ground – Atlantic Council
Middle East
(Rajeev Agarwal – Obser Research Foundation) The war in Gaza, unleashed on the region as a result of a brutal terror attack by Hamas on Israel on 7 October 2023, is completing 11 months of high intensity war, unprecedented human casualties, and mass displacement. The Gaza Strip, bombarded endlessly, has been reduced to rubble and rendered completely uninhabitable. With no ceasefire in sight, this war may well cross the threshold of one year soon. – Prospects of a ceasefire and the question of the West Bank (orfonline.org)
Russia
(Vadim Shtepa – The Jamestown Foundation) Despite fear of punishment for voicing opposition and the Kremlin’s aggressive propaganda, public support for its war in Ukraine has waned, especially as those returning from the front expose the reality of the conflict. Research indicates that Russians increasingly prioritize regional issues over the war. A “gray zone” of apathetic citizens could potentially shift their views as personal and regional challenges outweigh nationalistic propaganda. This shift in focus could lead to a future de-imperialization of Russia, as more people focus on how their personal lives have been affected by the Kremlin’s actions. – Public Opinion in Russia Falls as Citizens Experience Reality of War – Jamestown
Taiwan – China
(Scott Kennedy and Andrea Leonard Palazzi – Center for Strategic & International Studies) A new report by the CSIS Trustee Chair analyzes a formal survey of over 600 Taiwanese companies, finding that although worries about the risks of doing business with China remain high, Taiwanese companies are engaging in a variety of diversification strategies rather than decoupling from China. – Diversifying, Not Decoupling (csis.org)
UK
(Shairee Malhotra, Aaran Pilot – Observer Research Foundation) The United Kingdom (UK) has consistently ranked high in soft power indices. A British Council soft power study from 2020 finds Britain as the most attractive nation amongst the G20 nations for young people. However, other countries such as Canada and Italy followed close behind, with barely a percentage of difference from the UK. Consultancy Brand Finance’s annual Global Soft Power Index 2024 ranks Britain second in terms of soft power, just behind the United States (US). The term ‘soft power’ coined by Joseph Nye, refers to “a nation’s ability to achieve its objectives through attraction and persuasion rather than coercion”. – The UK: Still a soft power superpower? (orfonline.org)
Ukraine
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Kyiv has been working to counter Russian influence in Africa and expand its own by doubling its embassies on the continent and increasing aid. Most African countries remain neutral because Ukraine is a major grain supplier. However, Ukraine has lost ground in others due to what some in Africa believe and what Russian propaganda insists are its ties to former imperial powers. The outcome of this struggle remains uncertain, but Africa has become an important front in the war, which Moscow and Kyiv have decided is critical despite few in the West recognizing its significance. – To Counter Russian Invasion, Kyiv Seeking to Expand Influence in Africa – Jamestown
(Andrew D’Anieri – Atlantic Council) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presided over his government’s largest wartime reshuffle in early September, with nine ministries getting new permanent leadership. As the news filtered into Western capitals, media and experts alike scrambled to make sense of the changes. Back in Kyiv, many lawmakers and analysts appeared relatively unmoved by the announcements, in contrast to the cheers and jeers that have come with previous shifts in Zelenskyy’s government. – Ukraine’s biggest wartime government shakeup prompts muted reaction in Kyiv – Atlantic Council
USA
(Kyleanne M. Hunter, Joslyn Fleming, Jackie L. Burns, Grace Falgoust – RAND Corporation) The authors highlight how the U.S. Space Force’s (USSF’s) capabilities can be used to address human security challenges, such as climate change, food insecurity, and communicable diseases while also addressing national security challenges and ensuring secure and stable allies. – Enabling Human Security from Space: Using Space Force Capabilities to Better Humanity | RAND
USA – Russia
(RAND Corporation) Among the many international issues confronting the candidates for U.S. president and the American electorate in this fall’s election is the U.S. strategic posture with regard to Russia, its aggression against Ukraine, and the policies of its leader, Vladimir Putin. We asked RAND experts John F. Tefft and William Courtney to answer a series of questions to frame the issues that will confront the next president regarding Russia. Together, they explore a range of critical issues, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, cybersecurity threats, economic sanctions, and the future of arms control agreements. They provide nuanced perspectives on how the United States can navigate these complex challenges while maintaining strong alliances and promoting global stability. – Russia Explained: What Americans Need to Know | RAND
Venezuela
(Atlantic Council) He’s in no mood to bargain. After falsely declaring victory in July’s presidential election, Venezuela’s autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro, has continued to tighten his grip on the country rather than engage in talks with the democratic opposition. Over the weekend, Edmundo González, who independent observers say won the election by a large margin, fled to Spain after a court issued a warrant for his arrest. “I trust that soon we will continue the struggle to achieve freedom and the recovery of democracy in Venezuela,” González said from Madrid. But how? And how can the United States and regional countries help? – Experts react: Maduro has forced Venezuela’s opposition leader into exile. What should the world do now? – Atlantic Council
