Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Africa
(Stephen Karingi, Jason McCormack – Brookings) The idea of globalization brought with it the idea of prosperity. Yet ever since globalization has been discussed questions have been raised around its effectiveness and ability to bring prosperity to all. In recent years this has been especially true considering global challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, conflict in Ukraine, and supply chain difficulties that arose from them. In Africa, we know that despite its promise many Africans have not seen globalization’s benefits and many African countries have struggled to move up along global value chains. In fact, as recently as 2022, 46 African economies were considered dependent on the export of primary commodities, a situation associated with lower levels of development, economic instability, and fiscal unpredictability.
Re-globalization and Africa’s integral role in a sustainable future | Brookings
ASEAN – BIMSTEC
(Promit Mookherjee, Adnan Ahmad Ansari, and Anoushka Khatri – Observer Research Foundation) This report explores strategies to strengthen the relationships among Global South countries, with a focus on enhancing regional synergy between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation BIMSTEC. The report provides an overview of BIMSTEC’s rising significance as a link between South Asia and Southeast Asia, provides insights into the growing need for such integration between ASEAN and BIMSTEC, and makes recommendations to strengthen this cooperation.
ASEAN-BIMSTEC Synergy: Bringing Together Global South Forces (orfonline.org)
Australia
(Cynthia Mehboob – Lowy The Interpreter) In a world where digital infrastructure underpins modern military capabilities, the Australian Signals Directorate’s (ASD) recent partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to build a sovereign Top-Secret (TS) Cloud infrastructure for defence raises both hopes and alarms. Announcement of the partnership earlier this month came just a fortnight before the global outage of CrowdStrike cybersecurity services, which crippled computers around the world and demonstrated the danger of relying on a single digital system.
Australia’s big tech defence cloud: Too big to fail? | Lowy Institute
(Raelene Lockhorst, Glen Billington – ASPI The Strategist) Capacity constraints in the construction industry and its reluctance to take on defence contracts are threatening the building up of northern and western defence bases, a key element of the 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS). Defence is facing a risk of overshooting project budgets. One problem is the shortage, or high cost, of labour. The other is the industry’s perception that defence work is more troublesome and less profitable than contracting for other sectors.
Australia – New Caledonia
(Blake Johnson, Adam Ziogas – ASPI The Strategist) A member of the Pacific family is in crisis, and how Australia responds next will shape its partnerships for years to come. Following unrest among pro-independence Kanaks in New Caledonia, Australia needs to back the diplomatic intervention of other members of the Blue Pacific. And it should tell France, for France’s own good, to hold a replacement for a discredited referendum that overwhelmingly rejected independence in 2021.
China
(Danielle Ireland-Piper – Lowy The Interpreter) Holding citizens legally accountable for their actions while overseas has been a source of diplomatic tension since ancient times. This is perhaps no more true than in today’s highly connected, globalised world. In 2020, China introduced legislation in Hong Kong, commonly referred to as the “National Security Law”, that establishes a range of criminal offences, including inciting or supporting the “undermining” of the “basic system” of China. Some of these offences apply (extraterritorially) outside Hong Kong and China – in most instances, for citizens or Hong Kong residents. In 2023, for example, Hong Kong police issued arrest warrants for eight overseas activists under the National Security Law.
Long arm of the law: China’s extraterritorial reach | Lowy Institute
(Mohan Singh Dhangar – Manohar Parrikar Institute) As China has emerged as a great power, it has sought to augment its overseas presence in the international arena through measures like the establishment of Confucius Institutes and military bases and access points worldwide. The setting up of overseas police stations is a recent development that has invited international scrutiny, sparking serious concerns regarding the breach of international norms and the erosion of host countries’ sovereignty.
China – Russia – USA
(Heather Williams, Kari A. Bingen, and Lachlan MacKenzie – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On July 24, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) intercepted two Chinese Xian H-6K bombers and two Russian Tu-95MS Bear bombers flying near Alaska. Both types of bombers are nuclear capable. The bombers were intercepted by American F-16s and F-35s and Canadian CF-18 fighter jets. While the aircraft remained in international airspace and did not fly into Canadian or U.S. sovereign airspace, they were operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). These joint flights come at a time of growing great power competition and solidifying the Chinese-Russian “no limits” partnership. This incident was the first of its kind for the two countries, showing a willingness of Beijing and Moscow to extend cooperation to their strategic nuclear forces and signaling their continued testing of U.S. resolve, including through actions in proximity to the U.S. homeland.
Why Did China and Russia Stage a Joint Bomber Exercise near Alaska? (csis.org)
European Union – China
(Alicia Garcia-Herrero – East Asia Forum) President Xi Jinping’s May 2024 European tour prompted the continent to confront China’s economic influence and its strategic partnership with Russia. Amid China’s massive industrial policy and rapidly increasing green tech exports, the European Union is seeking to protect its own internal market. The European Union has already issued warnings of sanctions against Chinese exporters and has implemented countervailing duties on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). Xi’s trip highlighted the complex geopolitical environment that shapes EU–China relations, reaffirming Europe’s shift towards protective measures and cautious engagement with China.
China sees mixed results wooing Europe | East Asia Forum
European Union – Serbia
(Nina Marković Khaze – Lowy The Interpreter) Last week saw another step-change in the global lithium market. The ultimate destination is more independence from China in the production of this critical mineral, the “white gold” that underpins the ever-evolving digital economy. The deal happened with a stroke of a pen in Belgrade but will have far-reaching ramifications. Serbia and the European Union signed a new partnership deal on lithium following talks on critical raw minerals and metals. With the EU-Serbia memorandum of understanding on the production of sustainable raw materials, battery manufacturing and electric vehicles, Serbia became the 12th country to strike a deal on critical supply chains with the European single market.
Charging up: Europe’s bid for renewable energy independence | Lowy Institute
Germany – USA
(Jonas Schneider, Torben Arnold – German Institute for International and Security Affairs) At the NATO summit in July 2024, the United States and Germany announced that, in 2026, the United States would be deploying ground-launched medium-range missiles in Germany that can reach targets in Russia’s heartland. This deployment is a critical step because it gives NATO new capabilities in an area that has become more important as a result of Russia’s missile war against Ukraine. Moscow has threatened to respond with military countermeasures. A close analysis reveals, however, that the associated risks for Germany are less severe than many assume. The plan even has the potential to contribute to future arms control agreements with Russia.
Global Governance
(Harrison Lung – World Economic Forum) Globally there are 1.4 billion unbanked people who lack access to financial resources, exposing a significant gap in financial inclusion in developing economies. Fintech can foster economic growth and reduce poverty by providing affordable and accessible digital services, such as mobile money transfers and microloans. Investing in network infrastructure, providing affordable connectivity and developing innovative financial products and services can bridge the digital divide and promote financial inclusion in emerging markets.
Why financial inclusion is the key to a thriving economy | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
(David Lubin – Chatham House) One remarkable phenomenon these days is the sheer number of governments in economically fragile countries that are implementing tough economic reforms. Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, Ecuador, Nigeria, and Pakistan for example are all adopting, in differing degrees, painful economic policies. The intention is to live more within their means, kill inflation, attract foreign investment and engage with the global economy in a more effective way.
Global South – Russia
(Center for Strategic & International Studies) Heather Williams is the director of the Project on Nuclear Issues and senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS. She recently wrote a piece arguing that the Global South should more forcefully and publicly condemn Russia’s nuclear threats, such as nuclear drills. J. Luis Rodriguez is an assistant professor of international security and law at George Mason University’s Schar School for Policy and Government, who studies the interests and lawmaking strategies of the Global South in global security governance. In the following, Heather and Luis debate whether Russia has suffered any costs in the Global South for its nuclear saber-rattling and how the United States might more actively engage the Global South.
Debating Global South Reactions to Russian Nuclear Threats (csis.org)
G20 – Brazil
(Ananya Kumar, Mrugank Bhusari – Atlantic Council) As the Group of Twenty (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors gathered here last week, they were met with a dense haze rolling off the mountains that morphed into bright winter sunshine by day’s end. It was a fitting metaphor for the struggle, and for some of the success, of the Brazilian G20 presidency in trying to work through the complex geopolitical morass—especially the one caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—that has hung over these ministers’ meetings for the past three years.
Dispatch from Rio: Can Brazil set the G20 leaders’ summit up for success? – Atlantic Council
Intelligence
(J. Hazarika – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The act of merging data from various sensors into a single, more accurate representation of the situation (user-friendly output like monitor/screen) is widely known as sensor fusion. Operation Neptune Spear, the CIA operation that eventually led to the death of Osama bin Laden, showcased the power of sensors and its integration in precision operations in a contemporary scenario. This operation involved multiple intelligence agencies combining inputs received from satellite technology, signals intelligence (SIGINT), human intelligence operators (HUMINT) and other sophisticated ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance) techniques. The integration of these various surveillance systems and methods into a tight cohesive intelligence-gathering operation, directly monitored by the White House, enabled the analysts to build a single picture of the entire compound and its adjoining areas. Due to the exploitation of technology, CIA could also monitor any changes or developments in real-time and ultimately analyse the necessary synthesised inputs to plan and execute the successful operation that led to Osama bin Laden’s neutralisation. This multi-layered approach underlined the importance of leveraging diverse assets across multiple domains and capabilities in modern ISR operations, thus highlighting the effectiveness of integrating technology to achieve sensor fusion. All these capabilities were also superimposed with traditional HUMINT techniques and human interpretation to achieve strategic objectives.
Myanmar
(Alison McCook – East Asia Forum) In the wake of ICC-issued warrants for leaders of Israel and Hamas, the prospects of comparable international legal action in Myanmar remain slim. Complexities in the legal situation have combined with geo-political challenges – including regional ambivalence towards international law, and China and Russia’s continued engagement with the junta – to prevent international courts from playing a role in the situation. Accountability for ongoing war crimes and crimes against humanity is likely to be delayed until the situation is resolved, a prospect which remains out of sight for the foreseeable future.
Myanmar remains off the international legal agenda | East Asia Forum
NATO
(Michael John Williams – Atlantic Council) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Kremlin’s frequent nuclear saber-rattling to deter allied assistance to Kyiv have revived discussions about NATO’s nuclear deterrence to a degree not seen in four decades. “Nuclear deterrence is the cornerstone of Alliance security,” NATO allies reaffirmed earlier this month in their Washington summit communiqué. But the Alliance’s nuclear deterrence posture, especially in Eastern Europe, remains inadequate.
To deter Russia, NATO must adapt its nuclear sharing program – Atlantic Council
QUAD
(Govind Nelika – Centre for Land Warfare Studies) The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) has evolved into a strategic partnership addressing Indo-Pacific security challenges. The Quad Leaders’ Summit in May 2023 reaffirmed the commitment of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia to regional resilience and prosperity, focusing on critical areas, including sustainable energy, infrastructure, telecommunications, and cybersecurity. This paper thoroughly examines the cyber threats confronting Quad member states, providing a detailed analysis of notable state-sponsored attacks and their ramifications. It further explores the dynamics of resource sharing and collaborative agreements within the Quad framework, highlighting its potential to emerge as a robust platform for security dialogue. The paper focuses on the collective security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific, offering insights into the intersection of cybersecurity, geopolitics, and international relations in an increasingly digital world.
Russia
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Kremlin propaganda maintains that the Russian population overwhelmingly supports the war against Ukraine in the face of an “external enemy.” The potential for protest, however, is growing due to how the war has increasingly disrupted Russians’ everyday lives. Regional protests have yet to reach the federal level. The Kremlin, nevertheless, carefully follows the public mood in the various regions and does its best to control regional officials by advising them to minimize discontent. The real threats to the Kremlin are the increasing anti-Moscow sentiments of local elites, growing popular discontent, and expanding disloyalty of big business as the war effort continues to plague the Russian economy.
Growing Potential for Regional Protests Threatens Kremlin Authority – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow has declared two movements in the ethnic Ukrainian regions of the Russian Federation as “extremist,” one in the Kuban and another in the Far East. The move reflects growing Russian concern about Ukrainian activism within Russia and outside support for it. These are only two of many historically Ukrainian regions within the Russian Federation, areas where, despite Moscow’s efforts, many people retain a Ukrainian identity and language even if compelled to officially list as or otherwise declare themselves Russians. Kyiv has given some rhetorical support to these areas, but activists from them say that Ukraine and others must do more to help ethnic Ukrainians within Russia. They argue and Moscow fears that these Ukrainians could become important allies against the Russian invasion.
Moscow Worried About Ukrainian ‘Wedges’ in Russia and Their Growing Support From Abroad – Jamestown
Türkiye – Central Asia
(Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation) Türkiye is capitalizing on the geopolitical crisis in Eurasia and some post-Soviet states to expand influence through cooperation with Central Asian governments in the form of increased diplomatic involvement and cultural integration. Ankara is also expanding its integration with Central Asian military economies, as, due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Türkiye is unable to fill needs traditionally met by Moscow. The Diyanet, Türkiye’s Ministry of Religious Affairs, is increasingly involved in cultural influence in the region, building mosques and providing humanitarian relief, religious instruction, educational initiatives, broadcasting, and scholarships for students.
Türkiye Expands Military and Cultural Influence in Central Asia – Jamestown
Ukraine
(Mark F. Cancian – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Ukraine has faded from the news, but the war hasn’t stopped and continues to inflict thousands of casualties even as it burns through billions of dollars of military aid. The good news is that U.S. aid to Ukraine is sustainable. The $61 billion aid package approved by Congress in April will last at least through January and possibly into the summer. The bad news is that limits on U.S. inventories and production have constrained what can be sent every month. Deliveries may be enough to stabilize the front but will not be enough for victory.
Will U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine Bring Victory? (csis.org)
(Lesia Ogryzko – European Council on Foreign Relations) “The best reconstruction is when it is not needed in the first place.” So remarked German chancellor Olaf Scholz to the Ukraine Recovery Conference earlier this summer. He was correct in his assessment – but large gaps remain between actions and words. Western allies of Ukraine are not yet truly accounting for recovery and reconstruction costs in their thinking around the war. Yet a ‘prevention first’ approach would lead to different decisions. Providing enhanced defences to Ukraine would be cheaper in the long run, not just through preventing physical destruction but by allowing something resembling normal life to resume. It would also help demonstrate to voters in Europe that leaders are investing now to save later.
Rebuilding Ukraine: How a ‘prevention first’ approach can avert destruction and save costs | ECFR
USA
(Dan Lashof – World Resources Institute) In 2020, Joe Biden ran for president on the most ambitious climate action platform of any major presidential candidate in U.S. history. As President Biden finishes his term, it’s time to take stock of what his administration accomplished, what is still a work in progress, and what is off track.
(Samantha Gross, Louison Sall – Brookings) Donald Trump has made clear in his campaign that he supports a significant shift in U.S. energy policy, characterized by a robust emphasis on fossil fuels, extensive regulatory rollbacks, and a scaling back of renewable energy policies. He justifies these changes as necessary to reduce energy costs, achieve “energy dominance,” and boost the competitiveness of U.S. industries by removing the United States from the Paris Agreement on climate change and removing regulations on drilling for oil and gas.
Trump has big plans for climate and energy policy, but can he implement them? | Brookings
(William G. Gale – Brookings) Many parts of former President Trump’s signature tax cuts will expire in 2025. This leaves limited time for policymakers to decide what to keep, what to let lapse, and how to deal with the other provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). Whatever course of action they take will affect the federal deficit and how millions of households and businesses do their taxes.
Next year, Congress will have to deal with the TCJA | Brookings
(Elaine C. Kamarck, Darrell M. West – Brookings) It wasn’t long after President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential campaign and endorsed Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination that race-and gender-based innuendo cascaded over social media and digital platforms. Among the first attacks to appear was GOP nominee Donald Trump’s nickname for Harris as “Laffin’ Kamala,” later altered to “Lyin’ Kamala.” In short videos and memes, he and his conservative supporters also ridiculed her laugh and argued that it demonstrated she was not a serious or knowledgeable person. Critics derided what they called a “cackling” laugh, similar to what Trump did to Hillary Clinton during the 2016 race.
Race remains the ugly underbelly of American politics | Brookings
Venezuela
(Carlos Solar – RUSI) Although the self-declared winner of a bogus election, Nicolás Maduro remains cornered in his own country. However, he can still play the card of providing cheap oil to China, Russia and Iran to feed their counter-West ambitions.
2024 Olimpyc Games
(Stephanie Carvin – Centre for International Governance Innovation) In the hours before the 2024 Olympic Games’ opening ceremonies, news broke of a series of coordinated arson attacks on the French high-speed rail system. While this was shocking, it was also not entirely unexpected.
