COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
Afghanistan
(Andrew Watkins – United States Institute of Peace) At the end of June, envoys and representatives from more than 25 countries and international organizations gathered in Doha, Qatar, along with representatives from the Taliban under an U.N.-facilitated framework. This meeting was the third of its kind, widely referred to as “Doha 3,” and part of a process to establish a more coordinated and coherent global approach to Afghanistan’s challenges and the Taliban’s rule.
Africa
(West Africa Network for Peacebuilding) Over the past decade, the African continent has been grappling with complex conflicts with national, regional, and global ramifications. Prominent among them are the violent conflicts in Mali, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo and Libya. Multi-stakeholder approaches have been widely promoted as an important strategy to mediate and transform conflicts to foster sustainable peace and development. However, there is a dearth of literature that systematically and comprehensively analyzes the nature and scope, as well as the challenges, of an evolving multi-stakeholder approach to peace processes on the continent particularly through a case study lens.
(Joseph Sany, Ph.D. – United States Institute of Peace) Three West African coup leaders — a general, a colonel and a captain — gathered last weekend to formally ally their regimes in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. Their meeting dramatized two realities for Americans and allies who hope to see our children live in a world governed by laws rather than brute force. First, any strategy toward that less violent world must elevate Africa to the status of a front-line priority, not unlike Europe. Second, we must calibrate our support realistically, based on the conditions in each country. That realism means avoiding automatic, unilateral disengagements when democracy efforts are set back, as by an armed coup.
Arctic
(Mark Kennedy, Rebecca Pincus, Jason C. Moyer – Wilson Center) Seven of the eight Arctic nations are members of NATO, yet they collectively trail the ice-breaker capacity of Russia. This is even before adding in the icebreakers China has built as it proclaims itself a Near-Arctic nation. With Russia now introducing combat icebreakers, three NATO nations have come together to enhance their collective capacity to build icebreakers. Wilson Center experts share their views on this collaboration and similar efforts to address shipbuilding shortfalls.
(Alberto Rizzi – European Council on Foreign Relations) Icebreaker ships are critical in the competition for Arctic resources. A new initiative aims to strengthen transatlantic capabilities in building and deploying these ships, but more should be done if the pact is to counter Russian and Chinese ambitions.
Cold rush: How a transatlantic ship pact can win the race for the Arctic | ECFR
Belgium
(Wannes Verstraete, Michelle Haas – EGMONT) The voters have dealt the cards. Now it is up to the winning parties from both parts of the country to negotiate a federal government. In 2020, Belgium almost broke its own record again for the longest post-election period without a government.
No Time to Waste in Rebuilding the Belgian Armed Forces – Egmont Institute
(Pierre Verbeeren – EGMONT) The author proposes 3 concepts to underpin the new Belgian migration policy, taking into account the new structure of the State. Belgium needs a robust mechanism for dialogue between federal and federated entities. The Regions and Communities have the essential competences for integration. Until our societies find the key to integration, migration policies will remain painful. Finally, our policies must respond to flows of migrants, not to stocks of migrants. These policies must support trajectories rather than groups. A government agreement based on dialogue, integration and flows is more likely to meet the challenges of migration than an agreement that reinforces the federal state’s sovereign power over a stock of migrants.
Three Key Concepts for a More Successful Migration Policy in Belgium – Egmont Institute
Colombia – Venezuela
(Danish Institute for International Studies) Jorge Mantilla explores state-criminal cooperation in roadblock politics. His study discusses the way in which, between 2015 and 2023, the bilateral tensions and border closure between Colombia and Venezuela created a political economy of smuggling in which state officials delegated basic state functions to organised crime groups to contain foes, domesticate illegal economies, and maintain social control. Mantilla shows that the fundamentals of this political economy are negotiated mobility instances taking place at checkpoints deployed in the multiple informal trails along the borderland where smugglers, organised crime groups, and state officials interact.
State-smuggling cooperation | DIIS
Denmark – China
(Andreas Bøje Forsby, Yang Jiang – Danish Institute for International Studies) In the past couple of years, Denmark’s centrist coalition government has pragmatically re-engaged with China, while increasingly embracing the European Union’s de-risking approach to address vulnerabilities and dependencies. Aiming to reassure both Danish companies and the security policy community amid rising geopolitical risks and the growing demand for supply chain resilience, Denmark’s re-engagement with China takes place within an emerging regulatory framework for addressing China-related risks based on both national and EU laws and guidelines. This new approach follows a five-year period (2018-2022) of heightened tensions when the Danish government changed its perception of China from a strategic partner to a systemic rival, in close coordination with both Washington and Brussels.
Denmark: De-risking paves the way for pragmatic reengagement with China | DIIS
Emerging Technologies and Cybersecurity
(James Andrew Lewis – Center for Strategic and International Studies) The nuclear experience shaped cybersecurity agreements—for example, the 2015 consensus report of the UN Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on Developments in the Field of Information and Telecommunications in the Context of International Security used language on confidence-building measures from Cold War agreements—and still offers lessons. First, opponents must want to negotiate. They are more likely to do so if they perceive serious, even existential, risk. Cyber actions do not create that kind of risk. No one has died from a cyberattack, and economic losses are easily absorbed. Hostile cyber actions, particularly espionage, produce a steady erosion of security, but this has not reached the point where it is unacceptable. There is apparently no desire for serious negotiation (i.e., negotiations leading to concessions by those who possess advanced cyber capabilities).
Why the United Nations Is Chasing Its Tail on Cybersecurity (csis.org)
(Tracey Forrest – Centre for International Governance Innovation) Mitigating the risks and maximizing the rewards of AI will require governmental efforts on a global scale.
Geopolitics, Diplomacy and AI – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
(Nikolina Zivkovic, Reanne Cayenne, Kailee Hilt, Paul Samson – Centre for International Governance Innovation) On May 16–18, 2024, the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) hosted the conference “Knowledge as Power in Today’s World,” in partnership with Harvard University’s Institute for Global Law and Policy (IGLP). This initiative brought together a diverse network of disciplines, including sociology, history, political science and law, to address the challenges posed by rapid technological advancements and their implications for governance. The conference, held under the CIGI Rule, allowed information to be shared freely while protecting individual attribution. This summary highlights some key points from the conversations.
(Jethro Norman – Danish Institute for International Studies) Policymakers and practitioners need to treat the digital as an integrated part of war. Denmark is already leading the way in this regard in relation to diplomacy – or ‘TechPlomacy’. There is an opportunity to further expand this to security and military policy. Collaborative initiatives and programmes between Defence and Foreign Affairs could be developed including dedicated agencies to enforce digital regulations around monitoring crowdfunding and donation drives for military equipment and combat activities, and the use of social media to recruit war volunteers. Policymakers should prioritise the establishment of new legal frameworks to regulate the digital space. This includes gaining a deep understanding of digital environments and potentially intervening when necessary, and promoting ethical and legal frameworks internationally to address this growing phenomenon.
War volunteers in the digital age: How new technologies transform conflict dynamics | DIIS
European Union
(Peter Booms – EGMONT) To counter the increasingly aggressive hybrid campaign raging on their soil, the EU and its members states are grappling with the challenge to develop efficient instruments to counter this elusive type of warfare.
(Gonzalo Escribano, Lara Lázaro Touza – Elcano Royal Institute) This document contributes to the analysis of the energy and climate diplomacy priorities of the EU during the new 2024-29 political cycle, from a Spanish perspective. It contains the following key messages: (a) energy and climate will remain a priority, but in a different context; (b) a significant implementation legacy; (c) greenshoring, a template for open, competitive decarbonisation for the EU; (d) addressing the risks of fossil-fuel geopolitics; (e) applying the CBAM and managing the new geoeconomics of carbon; (f) mitigating the geopolitical risks of decarbonisation; (g) climate diplomacy and social acceptance; and (h) implications of EU foreign policy from a Spanish perspective.
European Union – China
(Salvatore Barillà – Australian Institute for International Affairs) The multilateral trade system is facing increasing challenges, from geopoliticisation to securitisation. EU-China trade relations have been in constant change over the past decade. Recent measures from both the EU and China might suggest possible tensions and the development of new trade disputes.
European Union – South Korea
(Raquel Jorge Ricart, Mario Esteban, Cristina de Esperanza Picardo – Elcano Royal Institute) This paper unravels the economic security strategies between the EU and the Republic of Korea; it assesses the state of cooperation in the field and discusses prospects for further collaboration.
France – Australia
(Marvin Girelli – Australian Institute for International Affairs) Since the First World War, Franco-Australian defence cooperation has been part of a long-term commitment between the two nations. Despite ups and downs, the two countries share a common defence interest in today’s Indo-Pacific region.
Germany
(Henning Hoff – Elcano Royal Institute) About a year ago, Germany’s first-ever National Security Strategy (NSS) was published after 18 months in the making. The lengthy paper is not really a strategy. Rather, it is a collection of all the things Berlin would like to do in an ideal world, describing Germany’s self-image as well as the foreign and security consensus at the time without setting any priorities.
Germany’s closest partner slips further away – Elcano Royal Institute (realinstitutoelcano.org)
Global Economy and Finance
(Abel Gwaindepi, Amin Karimu – Danish Institute for International Studies) Achieving Sustainable Development Goals and climate targets in the face of rising debt levels requires financial resources which the current Global Financial Architecture (GFA) is failing to meet. In this context, calls for reforming the GFA have taken both front and centre stage. These calls are not just for raising more finance, but for making the GFA more equitable, just and responsive to crises by addressing longstanding limitations affecting most countries worldwide.
Reform of the global financial architecture in response to global challenges | DIIS
Global Governance
(Ben Cahill and Adi Imsirovic – Center for Strategic and International Studies) A growing share of global oil consists of sanctioned and discounted volumes traded by dodgy intermediaries in an opaque shipping sector. Energy sanctions are a powerful tool to deny revenue to oil-producing states, and sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela have expanded in the past decade. But the effectiveness of these measures is a matter of debate. Policymakers continue to deploy targeted sanctions, and there is pressure on the Biden administration to ratchet up designations of tanker owners, trading houses, and financial institutions facilitating this trade. However, there are no easy solutions, and sanctions require some retooling.
Oil Market Interventions and Consequences (csis.org)
(Manuel Gracia Santos, Alejandro Álvarez Tobón – Elcano Royal Institute) The 2024 edition of the Elcano Global Presence Index confirms the recovery of the pace of growth of globalisation after the pandemic. However, unlike previous years, post-pandemic globalisation has taken on a harsher character, with greater emphasis on the economic and especially the military dimensions, while the soft power dimension has declined. Compared with the previous year, the global presence of Russia, China and India has increased significantly, whereas that of the US and the major European countries has decreased.
Haiti
(Nicolás Devia-Valbuena, Gabriel Rojas-Andrade – United States Institute of Peace) Haiti’s new interim government faces immense challenges, but none are as urgent as breaking the stranglehold that gangs have over the country’s capital, Port au Prince. Force alone will not bring peace, even with the arrival of the modestly-sized and Kenyan-led multinational security support mission. The country instead requires creative, whole-of-society — not just whole-of-government — mechanisms to divert gang members from crime and violence as part of a comprehensive counter-gang strategy.
India
(Gautam Chikermane – Observer Research Foundation) This forward-looking brief examines India’s economic reforms over the past decade and argues that in his third term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi would need to shift gears. Working to his advantage is the expectation of political and policy continuity. This must now be tempered by the slightly weaker political mandate. In the past 10 years, Modi moved the reforms needle with his dexterous stance; he now needs to work with a new idea—that of consensus.
Consensus: A New Approach in Economic Reforms for Modi 3.0 (orfonline.org)
India – Bangladesh
(Anand Kumar – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit highlighted the consolidation of bilateral ties in traditional areas even as both countries are exploring new frontiers. The agreements signed reflect the extensive and diverse nature of this partnership, encompassing collaboration across all facets of human endeavour—from seas to space, digital to green initiatives, health to military cooperation, and rail to disaster management.
India – Canada
(Rajneesh Kumar – Centre for Air Power Studies) Historically, India and Canada share a relationship marked with a mixed dynamics marked by cooperation as well as tension. The bilateral ties between the two democracies have seen significant vacillations in recent years in the geopolitical, economic and socio-political domains. India and Canada have since long enjoyed cordial relations based on shared democratic values, multiculturalism and cooperation in various multilateral forums such as the United Nations and the Commonwealth besides the residency of a large cross-section of Indian diaspora in Canada. But in 2024, the relationship has been found to be navigating through complex waters shaped by diplomatic disputes arising out of Canada’s open support to Khalistan. The recent trigger for bringing the relationship down has been some undesirable statements made by the Canadian Prime Minister in the Canadian House of Commons, following which an advisory for Indian nationals and Indian students in Canada was issued on September 20, 2023 and the visa services for Canadian nationals were temporarily suspended on September 21, 2023.
Dynamics of India-Canada Relations & Way Ahead – CAPS India
Indonesia
(Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat and Yeta Purnama – Australian Institute for International Affairs) Indonesia has introduced import duties on goods, primarily from China, to protect domestic industries from unfair competition. However, the drastic measure may backfire, particularly in an interconnected global economy.
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Kelly Campa, Kathryn Tyson, Katherine Wells, Siddhant Kishore, Marcus Mildenberger, Johanna Moore and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq – Gaza Strip: Hamas likely retains the institutional knowledge and skilled commanders required to reconstitute despite the loss of several high-ranking Hamas commanders in the Gaza Strip since October 2023. The IDF has killed three of five Hamas Brigade commanders in the Gaza Strip – Hamas Reconstitution: Hamas is deploying poorly trained new recruits in the Gaza Strip, probably due to its inability to effectively train new fighters amid Israeli military pressure. This inability to effectively train fighters will not persist if military pressure—from Israel or a different security force—does not continue – Iran in Africa: Iran is still attempting to establish a permanent naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast following unsuccessful bilateral talks in March 2024. Sudanese Armed Forces officials reportedly rejected these Iranian proposals due to concerns about potential backlash from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Western countries – Lebanon: Nasrallah gave a televised speech on July 17 commemorating the Shia holy Day of Ashura and stated that Hezbollah would hit new Israeli targets if Israel “continues to target civilians” in Lebanon. CTP-ISW has observed that Hezbollah has attacked areas further south in Israel in retaliation for recent Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah leaders.
Iran Update, July 17, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Danish shipping company A.P. Moller-Maersk (Maersk) said on July 17 that the consequences of diverting ships away from the Red Sea to avoid attacks launched by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen will be felt throughout its entire global network. Since November 2023, Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched dozens of attacks against commercial vessels in and around the Red Sea, disrupting global trade. Maersk said that “the cascading impact of these disruptions extends beyond the primary affected routes, causing congestion at alternative routes and transshipment hubs essential for trade with Far East Asia, West Central Asia, and Europe.” The statement highlighted that Asian ports “are experiencing delays as ships reroute and schedules are disrupted, caused by ripple effects from the Red Sea,” adding that “delays in Southeast Asian hubs pose a risk of disruption at Australian ports due to vessel bunching on arrival, resulting in longer waiting times and other delays.”
Top Shipping Company Warns of Global Impact of Houthi Attacks on Vessels in Red Sea (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Israeli Defense Minister Gallant Yoav Gallant highlighted Israel’s successful operations against Hamas terrorists and allied groups in Gaza during a call with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on July 16. Gallant observed that “IDF operations in Gaza have led to the conditions necessary to achieve an agreement for the return of hostages, which is the highest moral imperative at this time,” according to a statement from his office. Gallant also discussed Israel’s attempts to detect and eliminate Hamas leadership in Gaza and pointed to the recent airstrike on Hamas terror commander Mohammed Deif. Israel has not concluded whether Deif was killed in the strike; however, his deputy, Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Younis Brigade, was killed in the attack. Austin, meanwhile, stressed “the importance of increasing the flow of humanitarian assistance through all land crossings and supporting aid deliveries to Ashdod Port in Israel for onward distribution in Gaza.”
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) IAF Strikes Some 25 Terror Targets Throughout Gaza – Hezbollah Launches About 40 Rockets at Kiryat Shmona, Dozens Toward Other Locations in Israel’s North – Since Start of War, IDF Has Arrested or Killed Some 14,000 Terrorists – COGAT: 2,445 Trucks With 25,440 Tons of Medical Supplies Entered Gaza Since War Began.
Israel SitRep: July 17, 2024 (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar is reportedly facing growing pressure from his commanders to agree to a ceasefire deal with Israel, according to comments attributed to CIA director Bill Burns at a closed-door meeting on July 13. A CNN report on July 16 cited an unidentified source who described Burns’ assessment at the meeting that senior Hamas commanders were tired from more than nine months of fighting and were pressuring Sinwar to accept a ceasefire deal. Burns, who has represented the United States at multiple rounds of ceasefire talks in Egypt and Qatar, said that the pressure from the commanders means that the chance of Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire is greater now than in the recent past, although he added that the final stages of negotiations are always difficult.
CIA Director Reports Hamas Military Commanders Pressing Yahya Sinwar to End War (fdd.org)
Mexico
(René Rejón – Australian Institute for International Affairs) Mexico has elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. What does this mean for Mexico and its relationships with the United States and Australia?
NATO
(Shihoko Goto – Wilson Center) In its communique concluding the latest annual summit in Washington, NATO made clear that China was jeopardizing global stability. The acknowledgement by the 32 member countries of the North Atlantic alliance not only has expanded the geographic scope of interest by the organization, but also greater impetus for non-members to continue to support NATO. Yet how greater alignment between NATO and key Indo-Pacific nations in addressing challenges to regional stability outside of NATO’s boundaries translates into action remains in question.
Indo-Pacific Expectations for NATO | Wilson Center
Philippines
(Aaron Jed Rabena – Australian Institute for International Affairs) Tensions in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China have increased, causing Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to adopt a multi-pronged South China Sea (SCS) strategy. It is both a continuation and an expansion of his predecessors’ approaches to the SCS, and require strong external support.
(Temjenmeren Ao – Manohar Parrikar Institute) In the last two decades, China has been pushing its excessive maritime claims through coercive tactics in the South China Sea. China has refused to respect the 2016 arbitral ruling that gave the Philippines sovereignty over its exclusive economic zone. China’s illicit actions have become a major security and foreign policy challenge for Manila. The Philippines has revived its old defence alliances and is building new security partnerships as well as undertaking new maritime strategies to address some of the asymmetries in the maritime space vis-à-vis China.
Russia
(Emily Harding – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Russia has officially made one dystopian prediction about artificial intelligence (AI) come true: it used AI to lie better, faster, and more believably. Last week, the U.S. Department of Justice, along with counterparts in Canada and the Netherlands, disrupted a Russian bot farm that was spreading pro-Russian propaganda. The FBI director and deputy attorney general in a press release highlighted the use of AI to create the bot farm as a disturbing new development. What they did not say, however, is that the West is unprepared to defend itself against this new threat.
A Russian Bot Farm Used AI to Lie to Americans. What Now? (csis.org)
Russia – Korean Peninsula
(Anthony V Rinna – East Asia Forum) Russia has revived a defence treaty with North Korea, seeking to increase its influence in the region and assert a more active and independent role on the Korean peninsula. The resumption of this Cold War-era mutual defence agreement, coupled with increasing acceptance of a nuclear North Korea, provides Russia with potential leverage in arms control talks.
Russia swoops to secure influence in a nuclearised Korean peninsula | East Asia Forum
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War) Russian state news outlets editorialized comments by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and claimed that he said that the Ukrainian state will no longer exist by 2034, likely to support the Kremlin’s efforts to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine while promising that Russia will complete its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade – Russian officials continue to seize on diplomatic meetings with European states to create the impression that Russia is normalizing its relations with the West and claim that there is limited Western support for Russia – Russia and India continue to strengthen their bilateral relationship amid reports of ongoing Russian weapons exports to India – Russia and Ukraine exchanged 95 prisoners of war (POWs) each in a one-to-one POW exchange on July 17 – Kremlin officials continue attempts to curry favor with Russian ultranationalists by appealing to anti-migrant animus despite such appeals generating tensions with the Russian government’s efforts to execute the Kremlin’s wider migration policy – Ukrainian forces regained positions south of Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Kupyansk, Svatove, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar – Russia’s crypto-mobilization campaign continues to generate increasing financial costs for the Russian government.
Sudan
(United States Institute of Peace) More than a year into Sudan’s civil war, the country is facing the “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” as international aid struggles to find its way to those in need, says USIP’s Susan Stigant: “At this point, unfortunately, all of the efforts collectively are not meeting the needs” of Sudanese citizens.
Syria
(Didier Billion – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Plus de treize années après le début de la crise syrienne, où en est le processus de réhabilitation régionale de la Syrie ? Si les points de tensions restent d’actualité entre la Turquie et la Syrie – la guerre civile syrienne mettant au plus mal les relations entre les deux États – Ankara et Damas, par leurs chefs d’État respectifs, semblent dernièrement entamer un changement de posture en appelant à des pourparlers. Derrière ces tentatives de rapprochement, le rôle de puissances régionales comme l’Iran est à souligner, comme celui-là Russie qui appelle de ses vœux un processus de normalisation entre la Syrie et la Turquie depuis plusieurs années. Que peut-on dire des relations entre les deux États voisins ? Dans quelle mesure peut-on parler d’une réhabilitation syrienne dans la région et quels en sont les enjeux ?
Réhabilitation de la Syrie : quels enjeux géopolitiques ? | IRIS (iris-france.org)
Thailand
(Paul Chambers – East Asia Forum) The Move Forward Party in Thailand has seen a surge in popularity due to its advocacy for military reforms, including the abolition of conscription. This position aligns with a broader societal movement against the military’s entrenched role in Thai politics and society. The party’s success in the 2023 election, coupled with the ongoing public debate, has increased pressure on the military to consider reforms. This could eventually lead to the establishment of an all-volunteer force, but conscription is set to stay in place under the current government.
Thailand’s military conscription marches on for now | East Asia Forum
