LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
BRICS+
(Jean-Joseph Boillot – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Avec l’arrimage de l’Égypte, de l’Éthiopie, de l’Arabie saoudite, des Émirats arabes unis et de l’Iran au sein des BRICS début 2024, le groupe incarne aujourd’hui un ensemble d’États influents sur la scène internationale, représentant 46 % de la population mondiale et 29 % du PIB global. Alors que 2024 est synonyme d’année électorale importante pour plusieurs membres des BRICS, de nouveaux élargissements pourraient intervenir dans les prochaines années. Va-t-on vers un ordre international alternatif ? Quels sont les avantages stratégiques des BRICS+ ? Peuvent-ils incarner la voix du Sud global ?
BRICS+ : vers une recomposition de l’ordre international ? | IRIS (iris-france.org)
China – North Korea
(Niklas Swanström – Stimson Center) North Korea presents a useful case study to examine the ways that China’s interests, risk aversion, and process building drive its engagement in mediation.
China as a Mediator in North Korea: Facilitating Dialogues or Mediating Conflicts? • Stimson Center
European Union
(Atlantic Council) Right is up, left is down, and the center remains. European Parliament elections across the European Union’s twenty-seven member states concluded today with gains for far-right parties but the centrist “grand coalition” nevertheless projected to emerge largely intact. Meanwhile, after his centrist party was trounced, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly in a surprise move that will lead to yet more elections in the coming weeks.
As the far right rises in Europe, can the center hold? – Atlantic Council
Honduras
(DCAF – Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance) The process of supporting the use of police force in Honduras by DCAF and COSUDE Police Advisory Programme has been a transformative journey that, in collaboration with the Secretary of State for the Security Office (SEDS) and the National Police of Honduras (PNH) has redefined the practices and policies of the Honduran police institution, marking a milestone in the commitment to national norms, international standards and respect for human rights.
India
(Kapil Sharma – Atlantic Council) India conducted the largest democratic election in world history while suffering from an intense and prolonged heat wave that has brought a significant part of the country to a standstill. On May 29, New Delhi registered an all-time high temperature of 127 degrees Fahrenheit. Public schools and government offices have been forced to close, and Indians have stayed home to avoid the deadly impact of the heat. The extreme heat likely depressed voter turnout in the elections that ended on June 1.
Modi should make India’s energy transition his third-term legacy – Atlantic Council
Mexico
(Wilson Center) In this edition of Wilson Center NOW, we are joined by Lila Abed, Acting Director of Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. She discusses the results of Mexico’s 2024 general election, the landmark victory of Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first female leader, and the domestic and foreign policy implications of the Morena Party’s landslide win.
Breaking Down the Results of Mexico’s 2024 General Election | Wilson Center
Middle East and the Gulf
(Kobi Michaelc- INSS) Operation “Arnon” (originally called “Summer Seeds”) to free the four hostages from a location in Nuseirat on the morning of June 8, 2024, has posed a serious dilemma for Hamas, exposing all its vulnerabilities in terms of intelligence penetration, operational capability, the ability to protect its most important assets, and especially the cynical and cruel use it makes of its people as human shields.
Hamas Following Operation “Arnon”—From Embarrassment to Toughening Its Position | INSS
NATO
(German Marshall Fund of the United States) In the lead-up to the upcoming NATO Summit, this on-the-record briefing explores the issues on NATO’s Eastern flank with the German Marshall Fund’s expert on the ground in Poland Michal Baranowski.
NATO’s Eastern Front – United States Department of State
(Ian Davis – SIPRI) Former United States President and leading 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump made headlines earlier this year by claiming to have told the leader of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member state that the USA would not come to its defence against a Russian attack if the state had not met its NATO military spending targets. This was not a complete surprise, however, since Trump had said similar things in 2020, and the complaint that the USA protects its European allies at the US taxpayers’ expense has been a frequent refrain of most recent US presidents.
NATO’s direct funding arrangements: Who decides and who pays? | SIPRI
Nepal – Belt and Road Initiative
(Shivam Shekhawat – Observer Research Foundation) Nepal signed the framework agreement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with China in May 2017. Of the initial 35 projects that Nepal had proposed, the final number eventually came down to nine. Seven years later, none of the BRI projects have been completed. In 2023, the tenth year of the BRI, controversies surrounding China’s attempt to co-opt even ‘non-BRI’ projects under the framework, and Nepal’s efforts to secure more grants instead of loans for big-ticket infrastructure projects, started clouding the relationship, although there is progress in certain other domains. This paper analyses the status of the BRI projects in Nepal, the impediments to the completion of the projects, and how delays are affecting China’s clout in the country, if at all.
BRI in Nepal: An Appraisal (orfonline.org)
Russia – China
(Callum Fraser – RUSI) Strategic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing has visibly intensified in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, Russia is now firmly the weaker partner in the relationship, with China exploiting the Kremlin’s situation for its own ends.
Russia and China: The True Nature of their Cooperation | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Somalia
(Crisis Group) After a decade-long lull, Somali pirates have hijacked a handful of vessels in recent months. Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood reports on the burning anger over illegal trawling that is driving some local fishermen to sympathise with this dangerous – and profitable – activity.
The Roots of Somalia’s Slow Piracy Resurgence | Crisis Group
Turkey – Iraq
(Abhishek Yadav – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Iraq in April 2024 came after a gap of 13 years. The two countries signed 26 cooperation agreements spanning defence, security, water, and infrastructure development, among others. While Iraq’s designation of the PKK as a banned organisation addresses Türkiye’s security concerns, the Development Road Project involving Türkiye, Iraq, Qatar and the UAE aims to establish a major trade corridor and boost economic integration.
UK – MENA Region
(Tim Eaton – Chatham House) The UK needs to narrow its policy goals to concentrate its resources on stabilizing the region’s unresolved conflicts.
Ukraine
(United States Institute of Peace) Since Russia’s large-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainian women have worked relentlessly to build on their already considerable contributions to civil society. Even though the war continues, women’s civil society organizations maintain that it is not too early to start planning for peace — or discuss women’s meaningful participation in the post-war process. Women will be instrumental to any sustainable peace and recovery in Ukraine. And as the country waits for the day after conflict to finally arrive, it’s important to ensure that women are prepared and knowledgeable about peace processes and negotiations for the day after conflict.
(Orysia Lutsevych – Chatham House) During more than two years of full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia has launched 8,000 missiles and 4,630 drones, targeting densely populated cities, energy-generating facilities, large shopping centres, schools, hospitals, railway stations and high-rise buildings. Failing to make significant progress on land, Putin’s strategy is to make Ukraine uninhabitable by causing a humanitarian disaster, depriving its enterprises of energy supply and thereby push Kyiv’s leadership to accept a false peace deal.
USA
(Romuald Sciora – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Après sa visite en France, qui a lieu ces jours-ci, un sommet crucial de l’OTAN, prévu à Washington du 9 au 11 juillet, attend le président américain, qui, bientôt en fin de mandat, doit faire face au triste bilan de sa politique étrangère.
Joe Biden face au bilan de sa politique étrangère | IRIS (iris-france.org)
USA – Canada – Mexico – China
(Joshua P. Meltzer – Brookings) The U.S. has adopted a range of trade and investment restrictions on China in recent years, while Canada and Mexico have not implemented comparable restrictions. Due to the interconnected nature of USMCA trade, Chinese exports can circumvent U.S. trade restrictions and enter the US through Mexico and Canada. In order to ensure that the USMCA and the open trade and investment regime it enables is supportive of intensifying economic competition and de-risking trade with China, more coordination between the US, Canada, and Mexico on their trade and investment policy setting with respect to China is needed. Failure to collaborate on a more cohesive, North American-wide approach to China risks the U.S. adopting a more go-it-alone approach.
USA – Europe – Russia
(Neil Melvin – RUSI) With President Biden signalling that Ukraine will likely not become a NATO member while the confrontation with Russia continues, the US will need to take the lead at the upcoming Washington NATO Summit in setting out how a new European security architecture beyond NATO can be developed to deter Russia from future aggression and to defend Ukraine in the long term.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
