LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Mark A. Green – Wilson Center) Africa has enormous economic potential. It is the youngest continent in the world, and nearly half of the world’s working-age population will be African in 30 years. With that youth comes not only a vast source of ready labor, but also a potential treasure trove of new ideas and innovations. The continent is also home to a large portion of the world’s most valuable natural resources: 40% of global gold, nearly 90% of chromium and platinum and, overall, about a third of the world’s known critical minerals supply.
Africa’s Natural Resources for Africans? | Wilson Center
Artificial Intelligence
(Aurelia Glass – Center for American Progress) Collective bargaining is a powerful tool workers can use to ensure artificial intelligence and algorithmic technology improve their jobs instead of make working conditions worse, and workers have won several recent contracts that give them power over how AI will affect their working lives.
Unions Give Workers a Voice Over How AI Affects Their Jobs – Center for American Progress
(Alexander “amac” Macgillivray – Lawfare) AI is a hot topic in policy and regulatory discussions. President Biden rolled out an executive order, the Office of Management and Budget has issued guidance, there are more than 20 U.S. congressional legislative proposals, and even more in the states and internationally. Tech CEOs make broad pronouncements about the future of AI. They call AI more important than electricity or fire and say it will be used to “cure all disease,” “radically improve education,” “help us address climate change,” and “massively increase productivity.”
What We Don’t Know About AI and What It Means for Policy | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
(Council on Foreign Relations) World leaders this month have an opportunity to bridge the gap among the many divergent methods of governing artificial intelligence (AI). The International Telecommunication Union, forty other UN agencies, and the government of Switzerland are convening the 2024 AI for Good Global Summit in Geneva on May 30–31 to explore how AI can capitalize on the immense quantities of human-generated data to drive sustainable development. Four Council of Councils experts preview the summit and write on what they think should be the highest priority for leaders on a consensus AI policy.
Global Perspectives on the AI for Good Global Summit | Council of Councils (cfr.org)
China – Indo Pacific
(Lisa Curtis and Nilanthi Samaranayake – Center for a New American Security) The People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) has been engaging in gray zone activity—coercive behavior that is aimed at changing the status quo but that is below a threshold that would prompt a military response—particularly against the Philippines in the South China Sea (SCS), and these actions are raising tensions in the Indo-Pacific. Washington must closely monitor the situation and take steps to help protect the sovereignty of Southeast Asian nations from PRC intimidation and territorial encroachment
Countering Coercion | Center for a New American Security (en-US) (cnas.org)
China – Taiwan
(Manoj Joshi – Observer Research Foundation) The Chinese have been playing some hardball with Taiwan. And, in all fairness, Taipei has been giving as good as it got. However, at what point does hardball actually break the game and result in unforeseen consequences?
China is intensifying pressure on Taiwan (orfonline.org)
European Union
(French Institute of International Relations) Ahead of June 2024 European elections and against the backdrop of growing geopolitical and geoeconomic frictions, if not tensions, between the EU and some of its largest trade partners, not least based on the external impacts of the European Green Deal (EGD), Ifri chose to collect views and analyses from leading experts from China, India, South Africa, Türkiye and the United States of America (US) on how they assess bilateral relations in the field of energy and climate, and what issues and opportunities they envisage going forward.
France
(Sebastien Maillard – Chatham House) France’s President Emmanuel Macron is worried about the upcoming elections to the European Parliament. Votes for his long-time opponent Marine Le Pen’s far-right party are expected to surge at the expense of those for his own centrist party.
France – Taiwan
(Quentin Couvreur – Fondation pour la recherche stratégique) «Taïwan est un partenaire important de l’Europe et de la France, notamment dans les domaines économique, culturel, scientifique et technologique» . Cette déclaration du ministère français de l’Europe et des Affaires étrangères, publiée le 14 janvier 2024 à l’occasion des élections taïwanaises, met en évidence la richesse et le dynamisme des relations bilatérales entre la France et Taïwan.
Georgia
(Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) On 15 May, the members of the Georgian Parliament passed the draft law on transparency of foreign influence or the Foreign Agents Law, intensifying the protests underway since mid-April when the draft was first introduced. This law makes it mandatory for NGOs and media organisations receiving more than 20 percent foreign funding to register as foreign agents. This bill was re-introduced in the Parliament after it was quashed post extensive protests last year. The Opposition believe that the law and its motives are akin to the Russian “Foreign Agents Law’’ passed in 2012. In 2023, Georgia’s bid to join the European Union (EU) was conditionally accepted. The passing of the legislation may complicate matters for the South Caucasian Republic.
Georgian Dream Party has blown up Tbilisi’s track to Europe (orfonline.org)
India
(Harsh V. Pant, Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation) The Modi era which began on the national stage in 2014 and looks set to continue at least for the next five years, if present trends are anything to go by, has witnessed a number of significant changes being ushered in, all of which have generated a lot of debate and discussion. One area where some of the most far-reaching changes have been witnessed, however, has not seen substantive public engagement. The last 10 years have been a decade of some serious defence reforms initiatives with most of them pending for decades due to lack of political will.
Modi’s push on hard power (orfonline.org)
(Chietigj Bajpaee – Chatham House) India’s behemoth seven-stage election is reaching its climax with the results announced on 4 June. While exit polls will not be revealed until the election process is completed on 1 June, the likely outcome remains a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government.
(Gopal Nadadur – Atlantic Council) In May, Narendra Modi marked a decade as India’s prime minister. It is rare for politicians in democracies to surpass ten years in office. Voter familiarity or fatigue, along with other factors, has a way of dampening support and energizing rivals. Modi’s tenure is all the more remarkable, then, in that he remains popular, with 79 percent of Indian adults viewing him very or somewhat favorably, according to an August 2023 report by the Pew Research Center. With the world’s largest democratic exercise nearing its end on June 1—India boasts more than 950 million registered voters, six times larger than the United States’ electorate—Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is widely projected to earn enough support to remain in power for a third term.
What India and the world could expect from a Modi 3.0 – Atlantic Council
India – China – Russia
(Antara Ghosal Singh – Observer Research Foundation) Since the onset of the Ukraine War, a discourse gaining currency both within and outside India is that a burgeoning China-Russia alliance will eventually derail the traditional Russia-India friendship and hurt India’s national interest, making it much more vulnerable to the China threat. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to China has set the alarm bells ringing in New Delhi, where voices are getting louder, demanding India to pivot away from Russia.
The ‘India’ factor in China-Russia ties (orfonline.org)
India – Southeast Asia
(Yanitha Meena Louis, Jaideep Singh – Lowy The Interpreter) This year marks the 10th anniversary of India’s “Act East Policy”. Previously known as the “Look East Policy” when launched in the early 1990s, the redesignation by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014 sought to reinvigorate and accelerate India’s eastward engagement. This put India’s ties to Southeast Asia directly in the frame.
Does India’s Act East Policy matter to Southeast Asia? | Lowy Institute
India – USA
(Sanjay M Pattanshetty, Aniruddha Inamdar, Helmut Brand – Pbserver Research Foundation) 2024 is a prominent year with more than 50 countries are going to the polls, including the oldest (United States) and the largest (India) democracies in the world. The US is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade in goods and services reaching over US$ 191 billion in 2022. It is based on shared purpose, democratic values, and shared prosperity, covering almost all areas of human development, including the healthcare sector. Non-communicable diseases, infectious diseases, strengthening health systems and services, and maternal and child health have been key areas of cooperation as iterated during the launch of the US-India Health Initiative in Geneva during the World Health Assembly in 2010.
India-US diplomacy in health amidst 2024 elections (orfonline.org)
Iran
(Ali Ansari – RUSI) The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and a handful of senior officials including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian in a dramatic helicopter crash in Northwest Iran has rocked the political establishment in Iran, even if it has elicited a mixed reaction among the wider population. Indeed, the general sense of shock has been tinged with elation among his many victims, not least those who suffered from the violent repression of the Woman, Life, Freedom protests in 2022. For them, his demise represents another nail in the coffin of an increasingly despised Islamic Republic.
Islamic State – Russia
(Jason Wahlang – Manohar Parrikat Institute) The March 2024 terrorist attack by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Moscow Oblast brings to attention the Islamic State’s long-standing animosity towards the Russian state. The group also seeks to destabilise the relationship between Russia and Central Asia. Russia can be expected to deal with the ISKP threat more aggressively, including tighter border controls. The Islamic State Vilayat Caucasus, founded in 2015, also exists which operates in the historically conflict-prone Northern Caucasus region.
The Islamic State and Russia | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
Israel
(Yossi Mekelberg – Chatham House) Last week was a difficult one for Israel in the international legal arena. The decision by Karim Khan, the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), to seek arrest warrants for leaders of both Israel and Hamas was quickly followed by an International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling that Israel must halt any military offensive in Rafah that could harm civilians.
(Eado Hecht and Eitan Shamir – BESA Center) What are the lessons for IDF force build-up following the Hamas attack on October 7 and the Iron Swords War? A recent article by Prof. Azar Gat concludes that “there is no need to increase the scope of the forces and the existing force build-up should be continued, the main [element] of which is investments in technologies that are the key to the advantage of the IDF on the battlefield and for the current achievements.” We do not agree with this conclusion and believe it to have negative strategic consequences. The continuing inability of the IDF to realize the goals of the current war is mainly the result of a lack of ready and available maneuvering units, a lack that military technology cannot compensate for no matter how good it is. If the IDF is to be able to fulfill its responsibilities, it needs more well-trained maneuver divisions to resurrect the territorial defense organization as well as maintain technological superiority.
Does Israel Need a Large Army If It Has Advanced Technology? (besacenter.org)
Kyrgyzstan
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) A Kyrgyz mob stormed dormitories housing foreign students in Bishkek, targeting South Asian students and causing hundreds, possibly thousands, of foreign students to evacuate the country. The attack has left the Kyrgyz government concerned about economic losses and the destabilizing effects on the country’s position as a destination for South Asian education and labor migrants. Resentment is growing among the Kyrgyz population over the perception that workers from South Asia are displacing locals in many economic sectors.
Attacks on South Asian Students and Workers Destabilize Kyrgyzstan – Jamestown
NATO
(Richard D. Hooker, Jr. – Atlantic Council) The 2024 US presidential election will be, among other things, a referendum on the United States’ continued role in NATO. With a combined population of more than nine hundred million people and $1.3 trillion dollars in defense spending, NATO is by far the largest, oldest, and most capable defensive alliance in the world. Increasingly, however, some argue that years of “underinvestment” in defense by NATO allies justify US disengagement or even withdrawal from the Alliance. Others see China as the “pacing” threat and argue that a wealthy and populous Europe should be left to provide for its own security. In this context, why does NATO still matter?
Why NATO matters – Atlantic Council
North Korea
(CSIS) The fourth launch attempt of the Malligyong-1 reconnaissance satellite on May 27, 2024, is a clear demonstration of the political importance assigned to satellite launches—particularly reconnaissance satellites—by Kim Jong-un and his desire to meet the goal of launching three satellites in 2024. Despite the possible technical assistance of Russian scientists, as reported by the South Korean press, the launch attempt—presumably using a modified Chollima-1 satellite launch vehicle (SLV) at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station —was not successful, suffering a catastrophic failure of the first stage of the SLV.
Conducting a fourth SLV launch in twelve months, on top of numerous ballistic missile launches, is indicative of the physical and financial resources being dedicated to the SLV and satellite development program. Kim’s compressed timeline for launching SLVs could be the result of his public commitment to have three operating satellites by year-end, which also could be related to his positioning a future deal with Trump that would include a moratorium on long-range rocket launches in exchange for sanctions relief and de facto acceptance of the weapons arsenal.
Russia – Israel
(Georgy Poroskoun – INSS) Within the framework of its struggle against the West and Ukraine, Russia divides the world between “cruel aggressors” and the “defending victims.” The ideological-historic basis for this narrative comes from the Soviet Union’s struggle against Nazi Germany. In recent years, the direct connection between Israel and European Jewry, which is a clear example of a victim, has become blurred, and now Jerusalem is being portrayed as a “cruel aggressor” against a new “defending victim”—the Palestinians. This logic perfectly explains Russia’s hostile policies toward Israel since October 7. The narrative is a propaganda tool used by Russia for political purposes and is particularly designed to justify its aggression against Ukraine and rally the Global South against the West. The role that Israel was given in this story was and remains entirely instrumental, which explains why Russia, a country that once dedicated itself to preserving the memory of the Holocaust, is now cynically using that memory to denigrate Israel.
The Russian Narrative Over the Legacy of the Holocaust and Israel | INSS
Russian War in Ukraine
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin’s preconditions for halting its war in Ukraine are still those from the spring of 2022, never agreed to by Kyiv, plus acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains since then. The terms of the Russian-designed treaty on Ukraine’s neutrality and security, recently exposed, justify Kyiv’s refusal. Moscow sought a right to intrude into Ukraine’s domestic affairs under the guise of denazification and national identity policy.
The Kremlin Spells Out the Terms of Ukraine’s Surrender (Part One) – Jamestown
(Peter Dickinson – Atlantic Council) Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion more than two years ago, most of Ukraine’s international allies have insisted that any weapons they provide be used exclusively within Ukrainian territory. These restrictions were initially imposed to prevent a broadening of the conflict, but a growing chorus of critics now say this approach is preventing Ukraine from defending itself and risks enabling Russian victory.
‘The time has come’: Calls grow to allow Ukrainian strikes inside Russia – Atlantic Council
Sahel
(Ekaterina Golovko, Kars de Bruijne – Clingendael) The international community hasn’t been successful in its efforts to support ‘stabilisation’ in the central Sahel. To learn lessons from recent engagement, this policy brief seeks to make three contributions to an already long list of ‘strategic misfits’. First, that ‘stabilisation responses’ are built on the wrong assumption “to bring back the state” and “expand state presence”, without serious work on how to reform the state that had to be brought back. Second, that external actors – and in particular Western governments – consistently overestimated their ability to influence and effect real change in the region and have to become more modest in their objectives. Third, that there is an urgent need to apply these lessons to the new area of policy attention: coastal countries of West Africa and the fight against violent extremism. This policy brief calls for a stronger reflection on what decades of largely failing Sahelian policy can tell us about how to engage with Coastal West Africa.
Stabilisation and the Central Sahel | Clingendael
Ukraine
(Kateryna Odarchenko – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia has sought to destroy the Ukrainian economy during its war, leading Kyiv to seek significant funding to repair the economy. Ukraine is actively seeking financial aid from international sources and has a long list of reforms to implement to ensure this much-needed financing. By focusing on developing strategic sectors, Ukraine can pave the way for a robust and sustainable economic revival, creating opportunities for both businesses and investors alike.
Ukraine Seeks to Reshape Economy Through Reform Agenda – Jamestown
USA
(Ryan Mulholland, Mike Williams – Center for American Progress) The Biden administration’s recent action to raise tariffs on strategic goods imported from China has raised both praise and sharp critiques. Most critiques fall into two categories, with some lamenting the tariffs as an affront to the supposed free-trade ethos of the past, arguing that tariffs would lead to higher inflation or higher prices, or both. Others have noted the apparent contradiction between the administration’s push to address the climate crisis by accelerating a green transition to cleaner technologies and the potentially slower deployment that comes with higher costs.
(Alan Wm. Wolff – Peterson Institute for International Economics) Former President Donald Trump has promised more tariffs if reelected, 60 percent against Chinese goods, 10 percent against products from the rest of the world. These are in addition to the tariffs he imposed during his time in office and presumably on top of some noteworthy tariffs added to by President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., including the 100 percent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). China was considered a strategic competitor under the former Trump administration’s National Security Strategy; other countries were not. Into this “rest of the world” category fit allies, neighbors, and just innocent bystanders.
Trump’s proposed blanket tariffs would risk a global trade war | PIIE
USA – China
(Joseph S. Nye, Jr. – The Hill) In 2007, President Hu Jintao told the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party that China needed to increase its soft power — the ability to influence others by attraction rather than coercion or payment. The Chinese government has spent tens of billions of dollars to that end, but with mixed results.
America still retains a soft power advantage over China (thehill.com)
USA – Saudi Arabia
(Bilal Y. Saab – Chatham House) US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman on 19 May in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, to put the finishing touches on a major US-Saudi deal, according to reports. The deal proposes enhanced bilateral cooperation on defence, civilian nuclear energy, and future technologies.
Vietnam
(Temjenmeren Ao – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Over the last few years, Vietnam’s political environment has witnessed a major churn in the wake of the ongoing dot lo anti-corruption drive. Since 2016, Nguyen Phu Trong, the general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), has been taking measures to curb corruption as it was seen as essential to ensure the legitimacy of the party.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
