LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met for bilateral negotiations in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in April, following the start of the delimitation of the two countries’ shared interstate border. Both sides emphasized that though they still have their differences, some progress has been made, including agreeing on which maps to reference for the talks. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev believes that an initial agreement on “basic principles” could be reached by the end of the year, but a comprehensive peace treaty will likely take longer.
Armenia and Azerbaijan Step Up Work on Peace Deal – Jamestown
Armenia – Russia
(Areg Kochinyan – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Yerevan should not delay if it wants to integrate with the West, diversify its foreign policy, and build a new model of bilateral relations with Moscow.
Artificial Intelligence
(Matthew Schoemaker – CSET) President Biden’s October 2023 executive order prioritizes the governance of artificial intelligence in the federal government, prompting the urgent creation of AI risk management standards and procurement guidelines. Soon after the order’s signing, the Office of Management and Budget issued guidance for federal departments and agencies, including minimum risk standards for AI in federal contracts. Similar to cybersecurity, procurement rules will be used to enforce AI development best practices for federal suppliers. This report offers recommendations for implementing AI risk management procurement rules.
Putting Teeth into AI Risk Management | Center for Security and Emerging Technology (georgetown.edu)
(Jacob Taylor – Brookings) Generative AI has significant potential to benefit humanity. But to do so AI systems need to be designed in ways that support collective intelligence (CI). Emerging research demonstrates how “AI teammates” can be developed to support communication, problem-solving, and decisionmaking in human collectives. Realizing this vision in practical settings and at societal scale will require concerted efforts by technologists, investors, and policymakers to overcome technical issues, address data governance, and demonstrate viable use cases.
The most important question when designing AI | Brookings
Asia
(Fenella McGerty – IISS) Security concerns are propelling defence spending in Asia, but despite national increases, China now represents near half of total regional military expenditure.
Asian defence spending grows, China’s grows more (iiss.org)
Australia – Antarctic
(Tony Press – Lowy The Interpreter) US President Joe Biden has used the occasion of this year’s Antarctic Treaty consultative meeting to release a new high-level policy statement on Antarctica. The “National Security Memorandum nSM-23” revises and replaces the version issued by Bill Clinton in 1994. Much has happened in the Antarctic in the 30 years since, accelerating climate change not the least, along with significant geopolitical shifts, through the rise of China and Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine (a fellow Antarctic Treaty party). A cursory glance would indicate that the new US memorandum reflects a “steady as it goes” approach, but there are important messages in the statement outlining US thinking on the geopolitical and environmental future of the region – and many of these that are directly relevant to Australia’s Antarctic interests.
Biden’s new Antarctic statement holds lessons for Australia | Lowy Institute
Australia – New Zealand
(Adam Dobell – ASPI The Strategist) Many cyber attacks now straddle the Tasman Sea, such as last year’s data breach against Latitude, an Australian financial services provider, which affected more than 14 million people across Australia and New Zealand. As both nations focus on how to recover better from such large-scale incidents, they should combine their efforts by setting up an Anzac cyber incident review board.
CBDCs
(Josh Lipsky and Ananya Kumar – Atlantic Council) This week, as part of a trifecta of digital assets legislation, the US House of Representatives is set to take up HR 5403, also known as the “CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act.” While the bill has received far less attention than the cryptocurrency regulation efforts being moved alongside it, its passage could do significant damage to the future of the dollar and curb innovation across both the public and private sector.
Don’t let the US become the only country to ban CBDCs – Atlantic Council
Iran – South Caucasus
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is unlikely to fundamentally change Tehran’s foreign policy approach immediately, but it is already affecting Iranian domestic politics and could eventually affect its relations with the outside world. Any change would likely first be seen first in Tehran’s relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, with whom Raisi sought to normalize relations but toward whom some in Iran favor a different approach. As the fates of the three countries are so strongly interconnected, the fallout in Iran from the president’s death may thus cause numerous upheavals in the South Caucasus that may appear unrelated.
Iranian President’s Death Casts Shadow on Future of South Caucasus – Jamestown
Middle East and the Gulf
(Tammy Caner, Pnina Sharvit Baruch – INSS) Karim Khan, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague (ICC), announced yesterday that he has submitted a request to issue arrest warrants against the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar; the head of the military wing of Hamas, Muhammad Deif; and the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, as well as against Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant.
The Significance of the Request for Arrest Warrants Against Netanyahu and Gallant | INSS
(Council on Foreign Relations) Experts discuss the implications of the death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi, new International Criminal Court charges against Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leadership, and other updates from the Middle East.
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Growing threats to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival may have a greater immediate impact on the Middle East than the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on Sunday.
Netanyahu’s political survival rests on a strategic awakening – Atlantic Council
(Shahira Amin – Atlantic Council) Relations between Egypt and Israel have soured in recent weeks as Israel prepares to launch a full-scale ground offensive into Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip—a move that Cairo has warned would put its peace treaty with Israel at risk and destabilize the region.
A Rafah invasion might kill peace between Israel and Egypt – Atlantic Council
New Caledonia
(Emmanuel Hache – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Nickel is a critical metal, central to today’s digital and ecological transition, and its price is highly unstable. At a time when New Caledonia has been hit by major political unrest, the archipelago accounts for 5.6% of the world’s nickel production, 20% of its GDP and 90% of its exports, which explains why the market is currently depressed. How can we assess the current situation and world mining production? What is the current state of nickel geopolitics?
Russia
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is pushing for BRICS to collaborate more actively in the grain trade to undermine the West’s ability to influence critical decisions, such as suppliers of grain. The strategy continues to target Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain exporters, and seeks to strengthen economic ties between Russia and non-Western countries, Russia is targeting China and developing countries in the Global South to expand its grain trade and exploit the issues these countries face, including famine in Africa.
Grain Becoming Russia’s Tacit Weapon in Confrontation With the West – Jamestown
Russia – Iran
(Nicole Grajewski – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) On Sunday at 10 p.m. in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin convened an emergency meeting with Iran’s envoy to Russia, Kazem Jalali. The other attendees included some of the most influential figures in Russia’s corridors of power: newly appointed Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Security Council Head Sergei Shoigu, and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The meeting’s nominal purpose was to offer Moscow’s unequivocal support for Iran’s ongoing efforts to locate the downed helicopter of President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The underlying message of the uncharacteristically high-level gathering was unequivocal: Russia’s commitment to Iran would not be tied to a single president.
Taiwan
(Jenny Bloomfield – Lowy The Interpreter) Taiwan’s new President, William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan’s homegrown political party, has taken office this week. In January’s elections, Taiwanese voters elected Lai, the incumbent Vice President, by a clear margin over his two opponents, Chinese Nationalist Party’s Hou You-i, mayor of New Taipei, and Taiwan Peoples Party’s Ko Wen-je, former mayor of Taipei, handing the DPP an unprecedented third term in office.
We can help keep Taiwan safe by deepening engagement | Lowy Institute
(Brookings) In 2021, most experts saw the Taiwan Strait as a simmering problem, but they agreed that the odds of war occurring in the coming years were low. Despite a growing trend of jets from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) flying into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, few saw conflict in the Taiwan Strait as imminent.
Taiwanese perceptions of conflict: Continuity in the face of change | Brookings
UK – Israel
(Azriel Bermant – INSS) After the October 7 massacre, the British government expressed unequivocal support for Israel, but as Israel’s military campaign has dragged on, trust between the two has deteriorated to the point that Britain is considering banning arms sales to Israel. Can the deterioration be stopped—and how?
Britain–Israel Relations: Halting the Deterioration in Ties | INSS
USA
(Peter Harrell – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The strongest argument for rebooting U.S. trade policy ultimately may not be geopolitics, nor even the economic argument that trade deals will help an already-strong U.S economy. Instead, the best argument is that trade is a key element of solving global challenges that affect us all, like the green energy transition and the risks of AI and the digital economy.
Time to Reset the U.S. Trade Agenda – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Noah Berman – Council on Foreign Relations) The pending sale of U.S. Steel, a century-old icon of American industry, to its Japanese rival Nippon Steel has presented a challenge to President Joe Biden’s “friendshoring” foreign policy. Biden’s opposition to the deal risks undercutting his administration’s efforts to strengthen U.S. alliances and supply chains, experts say.
Why Biden Wants to Block the Nippon-U.S. Steel Deal | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA – Africa
(Judd Devermont – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)’s “visit piece” is one of the intelligence community’s secret weapons. By revealing what foreign leaders want and analyzing their personality, the CIA delivers decision advantage when the U.S. president is meeting with an African counterpart. The CIA expertly assessed how African leaders sought to navigate geopolitical competition during the Cold War, and it succeeded in deciphering what underpinned specific attitudes toward engagement with U.S. presidents, judging from a review of declassified intelligence assessments, policy memos, public statements, and press reports from 1961–1987. The art of leadership analysis is ripe for innovation, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), following six decades of impressive support to U.S. presidents. The current AI models are underwhelming, however; they will require significant training and iteration, as well as a proficiency with the art form, to strengthen and enrich analysis on leaders in Africa and other global regions.
Intelligence Advantage: Profiling African Leaders’ Meetings with U.S. Presidents (csis.org)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
