LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(Salil Gunashekar, Henri van Soest, Michelle Qu, Chryssa Politi, Maria Chiara Aquilino, Gregory Smith – RAND Corporation) Over the years, there has been a proliferation of frameworks, declarations and principles from various organisations around the globe to guide the development of trustworthy artificial intelligence (AI). These frameworks articulate the foundations for the desirable outcomes and objectives of trustworthy AI systems, such as safety, fairness, transparency, accountability and privacy. However, they do not provide specific guidance on how to achieve these objectives, outcomes and requirements in practice. This is where tools for trustworthy AI become important. Broadly, these tools encompass specific methods, techniques, mechanisms and practices that can help to measure, evaluate, communicate, improve and enhance the trustworthiness of AI systems and applications. Against the backdrop of a fast-moving and increasingly complex global AI ecosystem, this study mapped UK and US examples of developing, deploying and using tools for trustworthy AI.
France – New Caledonia – Indo Pacific
(Denise Fisher – ASPI The Strategist) How France manages the first outbreak of serious violence in New Caledonia in 40 years will affect not only its future role there but its acceptance as a resident Pacific, and Indo-Pacific, power. The violence of indigenous independence supporters, many of them very young, signals that the inconclusiveness of earlier peace agreements risks taking New Caledonia back to the bloodshed of the 1980s. The unrest is targeting the capital, Noumea, and its population of Europeans, who mostly support staying French.
France, New Caledonia and the Indo-Pacific | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Indonesia
(Warief Djajanto Basorie – Lowy The Interpreter) Two US technology tycoons and one British political luminary made separate visits to Jakarta in April, met Joko “Jokowi” Widodo at the presidential palace, and pitched projects that fall in line with Jokowi’s digital transformation agenda.
Indonesia’s digital drive gets big tech backing | Lowy Institute
Middle East and the Gulf
(Christopher Phillips – Chatham House) The international community neglected Israel–Palestine until violence exploded. They should not make the same mistake with the region’s other conflicts.
Beware the Middle East’s forgotten wars | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Saeed Azimi – Stimson Center) Raisi’s death scrambles Iran’s political scene at a time of popular discontent and regional instability and complicates the path to succession
Death of Iran’s President Complicates Leadership Succession Plans • Stimson Center
(Naysan Rafati, Ali Vaez – Lowy The Interpreter) Iran’s government on 20 May confirmed the death of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash in north-western Iran the previous day.
Iran: Consequences of the vacant presidency | Lowy Institute
(Jon B. Alterman – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On May 19, 2024, a helicopter carrying Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and other Iranian officials crashed in a mountainous region of northwest Iran, killing all on board.
The Impacts of Raisi’s Death (csis.org)
(Ray Takeyh – Council on Foreign Relations) Ebrahim Raisi was more loyal to hard-line Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei than previous presidents, and whoever succeeds him is likely to be just as conservative.
(Suzanne Maloney – Brookings) The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has dealt a major shock to Iran’s Islamic Republic at a precarious moment for the sclerotic clerical state and the broader Middle East. Although Raisi was not Iran’s ultimate authority, he was the paragon of the regime’s bureaucratization of brutality. His demise will reshape the looming succession process for Iran’s geriatric leadership and reverberate across a region beset by violence that Tehran has fueled.
Will Raisi’s death destabilize Iran? | Brookings
(Atlantic Council) “There is no sign of life from people on board,” reported state television. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash on Sunday in a mountainous area near Iran’s border with Azerbaijan. Raisi, a hardliner elected to the presidency in 2021, was seen as a likely successor to eighty-five-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who holds the ultimate power in Iran. What does the regime succession battle look like now? How will the crash shake up the region after Iran just exchanged blows with Israel?
(Atlantic Council) The war came first—the warrants might come later. On Monday, International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan applied for arrest warrants for Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Two other Hamas leaders and the Israeli defense minister were also named in the warrant application. Khan says that they bear responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity stemming from Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s war in Gaza that followed. Next, a pretrial chamber of the ICC will review Khan’s request and determine whether to issue the arrest warrants.
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin has proven unwilling to trust anyone outside his inner circle and failed to promote younger politicians–effectively demanding that Russia’s aging political elite continue serving in government. Andrei Belousov, the newly appointed defense minister, is expected to resolve military overspending issues, a duty set to make him quite unpopular within his own ministry. The capricious cabinet reshuffle is set to produce more confusion and bureaucratic infighting, further weakening the Kremlin.
‘Long War’ Drives Putin’s Cadre Reshuffling – Jamestown
Russian War In Ukraine
(Raphael S. Cohen and Gian Gentile – RAND Corporation) On April 24, Ukraine and its supporters around the world breathed a sigh of relief when U.S. President Joe Biden signed a long-awaited foreign aid bill that provides more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine. While the bill was ensnared for months in Washington politics, Ukraine’s position on the battlefield was looking increasingly precarious, with its forces literally running out of ammunition as Russia was expected to launch a new offensive. The situation prompted a growing drumbeat of bleak assessments from senior security officials. “The side that can’t shoot back loses,” NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli warned. Internal White House assessments were even bleaker. Even the normally upbeat Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, predicted that Ukraine “will lose the war” without additional American support. With the aid, Ukraine now has a fighting chance.
Biden’s Catch-22 in Ukraine | RAND
(Richard Haass – ASPI The Strategist) Three months ago, I wrote a column titled ‘Will Ukraine Survive?’ The answer (thankfully) for the next year is ‘yes,’ owing to Ukraine’s willingness to fight and sacrifice and the resumption of substantial US military aid. At the same time, Russia has launched a new offensive in the northeast that threatens Kharkiv (Ukraine’s second-largest city), is girding for a protracted war, and has largely reconstituted its forces. This raises an important question: with the new tranche of aid in hand, what should Ukraine and its backers in the West seek to achieve? What should constitute success?
Defining success in Ukraine | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Sierra Leone
(Chatham House) Timothy Musa Kabba, Foreign Affairs Minister for Sierra Leone, shares insights into his country’s key priorities during its tenure on the Security Council.
Sierra Leone’s return to the UN Security Council | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Taiwan
(Mark Harrison – ASPI The Strategist) Under the theme ‘Weaving Taiwan’s story and advancing democracy’, Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as the new president of Taiwan on May 20, closing the era of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. The incoming administration will build on Tsai’s legacy, but the international community will need to adjust to a new and less disciplined political tone will arise from internal party politics, a new legislature and domestic policy concerns.
Turkey – Israel
(Gallia Lindenstrauss, Remi Daniel – INSS) Following the local elections in Turkey at the end of March, which saw President Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party defeated in major cities, Turkey has implemented a series of harsh measures against Israel in response to the war in the Gaza Strip. Some of these measures deviate from Ankara’s previous policies, which had also led to a deterioration in relations between the countries during previous Israeli operations in Gaza. This deviation from past policies necessitates reexamining the bilateral ties and for Israel to prepare for the possibility of extreme scenarios between Turkey and Israel. This change also raises questions about Turkey’s place in the global and regional balance of power. Turkey’s current stance has also caused friction with the United States at a time when Ankara–Washington relations seem to be improving. Additionally, Turkey’s support for Hamas and its growing closeness with Iran could jeopardize the normalization of relations between Turkey and moderate Arab states.
Turkish–Israeli Relations at a Dangerous Turning Point | INSS
Ukraine – NATO
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) Political agreements between NATO and Ukraine—including a multilateral security compact and a start to accession talks this year—are necessary additions to military measures in strengthening bilateral security agreements. Accession talks will have to include the development of credible defense and deterrence plans between NATO collectively and Ukraine, with a 2028 target date for accession. Turning “the end of the war” or some kind of “peace settlement” into a prerequisite for Ukraine’s NATO accession is unattainable in the age of hybrid wars.
Bilateral Security Agreements as Part of Ukraine’s NATO Accession (Part Two) – Jamestown
USA – Israel
(Chuck Freilich, Eldad Shavit – INSS) Joe Biden is reportedly one of only two US presidents to have given serious consideration to a defense treaty with Israel. A number of Israeli premiers have weighed a defense treaty over the years, primarily as a means of offsetting security concerns and public qualms regarding concessions in peace talks. Counterintuitively, perhaps, Israel’s defense establishment has long been opposed. This study analyzes the pros and cons of a bilateral defense treaty from both the Israeli and American perspectives and proposes ways of addressing the sides’ concerns. All US defense treaties are fundamentally asymmetrical in their advantages. Nevertheless, the US, too, stands to gain important benefits, especially if a treaty with Israel was tied to the emergence of a broader US-led regional architecture, with Saudi Arabia at the center, and even more so if linked to progress on the Palestinian issue.
A US-Israeli Defense Treaty: The Time Has Come | INSS
Uzbekistan – Russia
(Yunis Sharifli – The Jamestown Foundation) Uzbekistan has been dealing with severe energy shortages over the past few years due to issues in gas production and a transition to using more imported gas for energy needs. Tashkent has signed major agreements with Ashgabat and Moscow for gas imports, in part, due to Uzbekistan’s commitments to exporting gas to China and pressure from the Kremlin to increase the import of Russian gas. Increased reliance on Russia gives Moscow more leverage over Tashkent, complicates Uzbekistan’s pursuit of a more balanced foreign policy, and risks cuts in energy exports when relations are particularly strained.
Increased Reliance on Russia and Commitments to China Driving Uzbekistan’s Gas Imports – Jamestown
Vietnam
(Alana Ballagh, Courtney Weatherby – Stimson Center) Agrivoltaics, or co-development of solar power and agriculture, provide an innovative solution to meet Vietnam’s rapidly rising electricity demand.
Agrivoltaics in Vietnam • Stimson Center
Zimbabwe
(Spencer Feingold – World Economic Forum) Zimbabwe has introduced a new currency called the ZiG. Zimbabwe’s central bank said the country is “recalibrating its monetary policy framework”. However, it remains to be seen whether the ZiG can gain the confidence of consumers.
The ZiG: Zimbabwe rolls out world’s newest currency | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
