LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Arctic
(Michael Paul – SWP) Russia’s war against Ukraine seems to have no immediate end in sight, the strategic competition between China and the US continues, and the expanding military cooperation between China and Russia increases the challenges facing the international community. In this context, the Arctic seems to be a relic of the past, no longer the “zone of peace” that Mikhail Gorbachev described in 1987. Indeed, this Arctic exceptionalism ended long before Russia’s war of aggression began. In order to restore at least a minimum level of cooperation, informal talks are needed that could help to provide perspective after the end of the war. Two former relatively uncontroversial projects could serve as starting points: the recovery of radioactive remnants of the Cold War and an agreement to prevent unintentional escalation, namely, another Incidents at Sea Agreement (INCSEA). A return to old approaches to arms control could pave the way to renewed cooperation in the Arctic in the future.
Back to the Future of the Arctic – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)
AUKUS
(Neil Melvin and Philip Shetler-Jones – RUSI) An in-depth exploration of the Australia–UK–US defence capability agreement (AUKUS) and what it means for the UK’s foreign and security policy in the Indo-Pacific.
Episode 76: An Examination of AUKUS | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Australia
(James Bowen – Lowy The Interpreter) The latest Australian federal budget, handed down on Tuesday night, pledges unprecedented support to making Australia a “renewable superpower”. Yet a new gas strategy that preceded it promises to keep Australia and its Asian energy partners tethered to this fossil fuel for decades. While fiscal commitments now favour Australia’s greener energy engagement, Canberra should wind back broader regulatory support to gas. This would quicken the timeframe in which Australia might provide for both the energy security needs of Asia and the climate security needs of the Pacific.
Australia’s new gas strategy makes for flawed foreign policy | Lowy Institute
Bangladesh – India
(Sohini Bose, Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury – Observer Research Foundation) The credibility of the ‘anti-India’ sentiments emerging in Bangladesh warrants scrutiny, as reality portrays a different narrative from what is depicted on social media.
Reel v/s real: Examining anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh (orfonline.org)
Brazil
(Valentina Sader – Atlantic Council) For the last two weeks, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, has been the victim of the worst climate disaster in its recent history. Hit by torrential rain, five months’ worth of typical precipitation fell in a mere fifteen days in some areas. Cities and towns remain under water, and the rainfall continues. At least 147 people have died, another hundred are missing, and more than half a million are displaced, impacting more than two million people in the state. The ongoing flooding in Rio Grande do Sul is an unfortunate example of the urgent need for countries to focus on adaptation measures to climate change. Brazil has a unique opportunity to drive these commitments forward as it hosts the Group of Twenty (G20) Leaders’ Summit in November and the United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP30, in 2025.
China – European Union
(Harsh V. Pant, Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) On May 5, Chinese president Xi Jinping arrived in France for a five-day Europe tour. Xi’s first trip to Europe in five years looks markedly different from his last one in 2019, when multi-billion-dollar deals were signed and Italy became the only G7 nation to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In 2024, the European Union’s (EU) perception of China stands dramatically altered against a backdrop of rising trade tensions and concerns over Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow.
Xi and a tale of two Europes (orfonline.org)
Cybersecurity
(Spencer Feingold, Johnny Wood – World Economic Forum) Cyber attacks in the financial sector pose a serious threat to global financial stability, according to a new IMF report. The financial sector is uniquely exposed to cyber risk and resulting losses could cause major disruptions. Cyber incidents “could threaten financial institutions’ operational resilience and adversely affect overall macrofinancial stability,” the report states.
Cyberattacks threaten global financial stability, IMF warns | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Democracy
(Vanessa Williamson – Brookings) Economists have found that countries with populist leaders, whether on the right or left, see a 10 percent decline in GDP per capita over the first 15 years. Businesses that use government data may find data less reliable if accurate data is perceived as damaging to the party in power. Control of public discourse is a key strategy for political leaders seeking to increase their power, and so would-be autocrats typically seek to dominate businesses in the media, entertainment, and communications sectors, including both the producers of media content and the owners of media channels and systems.
Digital Governance
(Cedric (Yehuda) Sabbah – Lawfare) Governance of AI, human-machine interface, immersive, and quantum technologies will require balancing global integration and regulatory autonomy.
Framework Interoperability: A New Hope for Global Digital Governance | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
European Union
(Annegret Bendiek, Max Becker, Camille Borrett, Paul Bochtler – SWP) The political debate over implementing qualified majority voting (QMV) into the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) is of high political relevance, especially given the shifting geopolitical landscape in Europe, including Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and uncertainties regarding the US’s engagement post-2024 elections. Germany, along with a group of other EU member states, is leading efforts to integrate a “sovereignty safety net” within the CFSP framework. This initiative is designed to ease the concerns of reluctant member states, by providing enhanced veto options for matters affecting national interests. Moreover, mechanisms like constructive abstention and the “passerelle clause” could be further exploited to facilitate common CFSP actions without requiring treaty reforms. Nonetheless, it is crucial that all measures designed to build political consensus for expanding the use of QMV within the CFSP, strike the right balance between national interests and European solidarity. This balance is essential for strengthening the EU’s resilience and operational capability. Cyber foreign and security policy, with its transnational nature and need for swift and unified responses, presents a favorable testing ground for this approach.
Taming National Interests within the CFSP – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)
France – China
(Marc Julienne – IFRI) One may regret that France has not upgraded its China policy sooner, but it seems that the French president is now clear-eyed that it is not enough to only have a good relationship with Beijing, it is also necessary to reinstate the balance of power.
Global Economy
(Spencer Feingold – World Economic Forum) Businesses are increasingly having to operate under disruptive geopolitical pressures. “We are seeing a big evolution in how companies are assessing risks,” said Simon Evenett, founder of the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade. A new white paper offers insights for companies and policymakers grappling with the geopolitical pressures that continue to fragment the global economy.
Geopolitical rivalries are costly for global businesses | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
India
(Ayjaz Wani – Observer Research Foundation) The Chabahar Port deal between India and Iran can help the former gain connectivity to Eurasia and counter China’s growing regional influence.
Chabahar Port: India’s counterweight to China’s BRI in Eurasia (orfonline.org)
India – China
(Observer Research Foundation) Trade between India and China has never been higher, with last year’s figures reaching a record US$136 billion. India and China are also at loggerheads over a border dispute that claimed at least 20 lives on both sides in 2020, and have held 21 rounds of military negotiations in the period since. Clearly, the diplomat’s work on Raisina Hill is challenging: balancing economic cooperation and security concerns poses a complex challenge for both countries, as deeper economic ties may enhance stability, but security implications can threaten long-term harmony, as was seen in Galwan.
Perception matters: How Chinese funding impacts Beijing’s image in India (orfonline.org)
(Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation) China’s efforts to bridge the disparities in its cyber and space capabilities by restructuring its military serve to widen the gap between China and India, with long-lasting implications for the latter
China removes the PLASSF and establishes ISF: Implications for India (orfonline.org)
Middle East and Central Asia
(Jihad Azour – IMF blog) Reducing trade barriers, easing regulatory constraints, and upgrading infrastructure can mitigate challenges and help countries leverage new opportunities.
More Diversified Trade Can Make Middle East and Central Asia More Resilient (imf.org)
Middle East and the Gulf
(Mohammed Sinan Siyech – Observer Research Foundation) The Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement has gained momentum as more people protest against Israel’s actions in Gaza by boycotting Israeli products.
Examining economic boycotts: The case of the Israel-Palestine conflict (orfonline.org)
Myanmar
(Morgan Michaels – IISS) In light of the junta’s increasingly tenuous hold on Myanmar’s key strategic areas, neighbouring states are having to confront the possibility of regime collapse and rethink their relationships with the country’s various opposition actors.
Myanmar policy at a crossroads (iiss.org)
New Caledonia
(Denise Fisher – Lowy The Interpreter) Last night saw demonstrations by independence supporters in New Caledonia erupt into serious violence for the first time since the 1980s civil disturbances. The mainly indigenous demonstrators were opposing President Emmanuel Macron’s imposition of constitutional change to widen voter eligibility unless discussions about the future begin soon. The protests occurred the day before France’s National Assembly was to vote on the issue, and just after Macron had proposed new talks in Paris.
Pakistan – Afghanistan
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – Lowy The Interpreter) The long, rugged border running along Pakistan’s northwestern tribal areas that separates Afghanistan provides no barrier to the influence of the Taliban and its radical policies against women.
Targeting girls education: Pakistan’s tribal areas suffer under Taliban influence | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – Brookings) Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the threat of nuclear war has loomed over the conflict. Yet with President Vladimir Putin’s latest announcement that Russia would hold exercises for tactical nuclear weapons use in combat—supposedly in response to “provocative statements” from Western officials—Russia’s nuclear brinksmanship has possibly reached a new phase, in which higher risks need to be met with an upgraded Western deterrence posture.
Nuclear brinkmanship in Putin’s war: Upping the ante | Brookings
(Giangiuseppe Pili and Fabrizio Minniti – RUSI) The removal of the two figures at the top of Russia’s Ministry of Defence points to the intrinsic instability of Putin’s regime, in spite of apparent progress on the frontline in Ukraine.
Shoigu’s Removal and the Instability of Putin’s Regime | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Russia – China
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Booming demand for Russians who know Chinese, a product of Putin’s turn to the East, is exacerbating long-standing fears that Moscow will lose control over lands east of the Urals. The flight of Russians from the vast and underpopulated region, combined with the growing presence of China with its enormous population and economy, has led to rising concerns regarding potential Chinese designs on Russia’s periphery. Moscow may again play up fears of China in the Russian Far East—a strategy it has succeeded with in the past, but could easily compromise Putin’s ability to keep Beijing in his corner.
Putin’s Turn to East Boosts Demand for Chinese Language Expertise and Fears of China – Jamestown
Russian War in Ukraine
(Mykola Bielieskov – Atlantic Council) Russia launched a cross-border offensive into northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region on May 10, opening a new front in its ongoing invasion. The attack had been widely anticipated, but the apparent ease with which Russian forces were able to penetrate the Ukrainian border sparked considerable alarm and allegations of security blunders.
Putin expands invasion as outgunned Ukraine waits for Western weapons – Atlantic Council
(Alla Hurska – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s hybrid strategy against Ukraine continues to focus heavily on crippling civilian infrastructure to undermine the Ukrainian economy. Moscow is targeting Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage system, with the aim of weakening the European Union since it has increasingly relied on Ukraine’s storage facilities since 2023. The environmental impacts of Russian bombings extend beyond Ukraine to ecosystems across Europe, requiring urgent action to protect future generations.
Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Critical Infrastructure Become Hybrid Threat to Europe – Jamestown
(Jack Watling – RUSI) Russia has now started the early phases of its anticipated summer offensive with renewed attacks on Kharkiv. Over the past few days, Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border, occupying a number of villages. Ukraine has spent several months fortifying Kharkiv, but storming the city is not how Russia intends to fight. The Russian target this summer is the Ukrainian army, and against this target it has started to compound its advantages.
In Ukraine, Russia is Beginning to Compound Advantages | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
South China Sea
(Abdul Rahman Yaacob – Lowy The Interpreter) Negotiations over a “code of conduct” (COC) in the South China Sea between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China waxed and waned for two decades. Last July, in a bid to expedite an agreement, a three-year deadline was agreed to conclude the talks.
A code of conduct won’t solve the South China Sea crisis | Lowy Institute
South Sudan
(Crisis Group) Income from oil exports is critical to keeping South Sudan’s factious elites together. The war in neighbouring Sudan has led earnings to fall precipitously, threatening instability in Juba and highlighting anew the need to bring the Sudanese conflict to a close.
South Sudan on Edge as Its Neighbour’s War Disrupts Oil Exports | Crisis Group
Sudan
(Gerrit Kurtz – SWP) War has raged in Sudan since April 2023 following fundamental changes in the political balance of power in recent years. The previously dominant security sector is deeply divided and the once weakly organised civil society has mobilised. Competition within the security sector made it possible to form a civil-military transitional government. Yet the continued rise to power of the Rapid Support Forces increased the risk of armed conflict, especially after the coup in 2021. Since Bashir’s fall in 2019, the security forces have twice tried in vain to establish sole military rule. The civil-military transitional government also failed because the military still had considerable power resources at its disposal. Sudan’s political elite contributed to this outcome by paying too little attention to the establishment of transitional institutions and too much attention to its own visibility. International actors who wanted to strengthen Sudan’s transition process could have repelled the security forces more decisively instead of reflexively accepting them. Many international as well as Sudanese efforts suffered from the fact that they viewed the inclusion or exclusion of the security forces as a binary issue. A new non-inclusive, elitist deal with Sudan’s violent entrepreneurs will not bring peace if there are no civilian forces at the table. Instead, Sudan’s best chance lies in the social capital of its citizens’ voluntary commitment to humanitarian aid, democracy and local reconciliation.
Taiwan
(Ryan Hass – Brookings) As the May 20 inauguration of William Lai as Taiwan’s next president approaches, prepare for an anticipable wave of news analyses predicting escalating tensions and potential conflict on the horizon. Lai famously referred to himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence.” And since Beijing has threatened to go to war to prevent Taiwan independence, so the thinking goes, Lai’s inauguration could spell impending trouble.
Beware forecasts of doom for Taiwan under Lai | Brookings
(David Sacks – Council on Foreign Relations) Despite China’s growing pressure, Taiwan has developed one of the world’s strongest democracies—one that will be increasingly tested in the coming years.
Taiwan’s Democracy Is Thriving in China’s Shadow | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
UK – Italy – Japan
(Trevor Taylor and Isabella Antinozzi- RUSI) In 2022, the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) between the UK, Italy and Japan was formally announced. The programme has evolved at a considerable pace since then, with the three countries signing a treaty for the establishment of a GCAP International Government Organisation (GIGO) as the international organisation to lead the collaboration in December 2023.
USA – China
(Atlantic Council) It’s open season on seagulls. On Tuesday, the Biden administration announced sweeping tariff increases on China across a range of strategic industries, including quadrupling tariffs to 100 percent on electric vehicles (EVs), such as the low-priced Seagull EV from Chinese automaker BYD. Other industries that the new tariffs impact include lithium-ion batteries, semiconductors, aluminum and steel, solar panels, and medical products. The changes are designed to take aim at China’s nonmarket trade practices and overcapacity, while boosting US industries. To decipher what’s behind the move and what to expect next, we put five burning questions to our experts.
What to know about Biden’s new tariffs on Chinese EVs, solar cells, and more – Atlantic Council
(Joseph Majkut, William Alan Reinsch, Scott Kennedy, Emily Benson, Gracelin Baskaran, Jane Nakano, and Quill Robinson – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On May 14, 2024, the White House announced increased tariffs on Chinese imports “across strategic sectors such as steel and aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, critical minerals, solar cells, ship-to-shore cranes, and medical products.” Many of these sectors are key to the Biden administration’s plans to reshore manufacturing to increase supply chain resilience and improve the political economy of the energy transition.
Experts React: Energy and Trade Implications of Tariffs on Chinese Imports (csis.org)
(Bryan Burack – The Heritage Foundation) As China and the U.S. sink deeper into a New Cold War, national security threats stemming from Chinese purchases of U.S. land and real estate are growing.Protecting the nation from these threats requires an effective response from federal national security agencies as well as state governments.Lawmakers must be able to monitor, review, and prohibit transactions in U.S. farmland and other real estate that pose a national security threat.
USA – Israel
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) At the heart of the Biden administration’s growing frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is what the White House considers his failure to articulate and execute a strategy that will make Israel more secure, while engaging in tactics that are making it less so.
Why strategy is central to the Biden-Netanyahu dispute – Atlantic Council
Venezuela – Guyana
(Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, Rubi Bledsoe, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., and Jennifer Jun – Center for Strategic & International Studies) As domestic challenges to Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela have mounted, he has doubled down on a compellence strategy against Guyana that is full of escalation risks and potential for miscalculation. Since February 9, when CSIS last reported on Venezuela’s military activities near the Essequibo, Maduro has ordered the Venezuelan military to deploy weapons and equipment and increase its state of readiness on Guyana’s doorstep. Most recently, Venezuelan lawmakers approved the creation of a new state, “Guayana Esequiba,” despite ongoing tensions with Guyana and an open case before the International Court of Justice.
The Essequibo Pressure Cooker: Runaway Nationalism and Maduro’s Compellence Strategy (csis.org)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
