LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(Observer Research Foundation) The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to create societal transformations. Indeed, AI is already emerging as a factor in geopolitics, with malicious non-state actors exploiting its capabilities to spread misinformation and potentially develop autonomous weapons. To be sure, not all countries are equal in AI, and bridging the “AI divide” between the Global North and South is vital to ensuring equal representation while addressing regulatory concerns and the equitable distribution of benefits that can be derived from the technology. Most G20 members have established comprehensive national AI strategies, notably technology giants like the United States, United Kingdom, China, and countries of the European Union. Global South nations such as Brazil, Argentina, and India, despite economic constraints, are demonstrating progress in leveraging AI in areas like social services and agriculture. Future strategies must anticipate emerging threats like Generative AI (GenAI) and Quantum AI, prioritising responsible governance to mitigate biases, inequalities, and cybersecurity risks.
A Roadmap for AI Governance: Lessons from G20 National Strategies (orfonline.org)
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Artificial intelligence (AI) will impact individuals, communities, and institutions worldwide in both unique and universal ways. While public and private sector actors have begun to build the foundations for achieving more secure and trustworthy AI, the voices shaping the AI governance agenda are primarily from the Global North. To govern AI in a way that reflects a global range of contexts, it is imperative to adopt a more inclusive lens in defining its harms and opportunities. Broadly accepted AI governance principles may struggle to translate into practice without a more explicit focus on how priorities and challenges prevalent in the Global Majority intersect with AI.
(Emma Klein and Stewart Patrick – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Rather than a single, tidy, institutional solution to govern AI, the world will likely see the emergence of something less elegant: a regime complex, comprising multiple institutions within and across several functional areas.
(Aubra Anthony, Lakshmee Sharma, and Elina Noor – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) International AI governance enshrines assumptions from the more well-resourced Global North. These efforts must adapt to better account for the range of harms AI incurs globally.
Australia – China
(Henry Storey – Lowy The Interpreter) China’s irrepressible appetite for Australian resources will severely complicate the country’s manufacturing renaissance.
Made in Australia meets China’s export juggernaut | Lowy Institute
(Justin Burke – Lowy The Interpreter) During the Cold War, it was not unheard of for Soviet ships to attempt to disrupt US naval operations by “shouldering” vessels, meaning coming abreast and colliding in a semi-controlled manner. A famous example is the Black Sea incident of 1988, when Soviet frigates “bumped” both the USS Yorktown and Caron which were exercising the right of innocent passage. Only minimal damage was sustained, but a diplomatic point was made, at least from a Soviet perspective. Why, then, are we are seeing China’s military apparent focus on harassing Australian Defence Force aircraft? Is this the equivalent of a “cold shoulder”?
The cause for China’s coercion in the skies may lay under the water | Lowy Institute
Bangladesh
(Sohini Bose – Observer Research Foundation) Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government was re-elected to power for the fourth consecutive time at the 12th parliamentary election in January 2024. PM Hasina returned to power amid US pressures to influence the elections through multiple means, including imposing visa restrictions on Bangladeshi citizens allegedly involved in compromising the polls; not inviting Bangladesh to the Democracy Summits; US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas’s meeting with the families of the victims of ‘enforced displacements’, including the BNP leader, Sajedul Islam Sumon; and the imposition of sanctions on officials of Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion for reported human rights abuses.
Priorities for Prime Minister Hasina’s New Term in Bangladesh (orfonline.org)
China
(Sha Song – World Economic Forum) 2023 was the warmest year on record at 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above the pre-industrial average. Slowing and reversing climate change and emissions requires trillions of dollars of financing. China, which plays such a pivotal role in the global economy, is already moving to fund the climate transition through a variety of innovative financing mechanisms.
The green technology innovation pipeline: Lessons from China | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
(Meia Nouwens – IISS) The People’s Liberation Army announced a major restructuring of its information-support forces. What does it all mean?
China’s new Information Support Force (iiss.org)
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Flora McCrone, Jemilah Mahmood – World Economic Forum) 2023 was the hottest year on record, breaching 1.5°C for the first time and propelling us deeper into a danger zone for people and the planet. Planetary health spans nearly every sector and discipline, looking at the interplay between health of our planet and human health, wellbeing and livelihoods. The Global Collaboration Village partnered with Sunway University’s Centre for Planetary Health on extended reality explorations at the 2024 Planetary Health Summit to deepen our understanding of the health of our planet and its implications for humans.
Immersive technology can help us engage in climate dialogue | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Cyber Crime
(Gavin Wilde and Emma Landi – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Western law enforcement agencies have become more assertive in responding to international cyber crime, including through their own disruptive cyber operations. This growing trend is generally a positive one, but it also poses new policy challenges—both domestically and abroad.
Earth Observation Data
(Brett Loubert, Bridget Fawcett, Helen Burdett – World Economic Forum) More than a thousand satellites orbiting the planet constantly collect Earth observation data. The cumulative potential value-added from Earth data could reach $3.8 trillion from 2023-2030, according to a new report by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Deloitte. There are 6 key industries responsible for 94% of that value generated.
Earth observation will unlock huge value for these 6 sectors | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
European Union – China
(Lukas Trakimavičius – EUISS) For years, the EU has played a prominent role in leading the world’s transition to clean energy through its robust backing for green technologies and a determined policy push to reach net zero. Initiatives such as the European Green Deal, ‘Fit for 55’ and the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) not only advance ambitious emissions reduction targets, but also promote clean tech that is made in Europe. All the while, China has established itself as a clean energy juggernaut, increasingly dominating the supply chains of clean tech on which the EU relies. China’s meteoric rise in the clean tech sector has also coincided with an increasingly bellicose approach to diplomacy, exemplified by recurrent threats to ban critical mineral exports and the imposition of controls on exports of certain materials. Going forward, the EU will have to walk a fine line between meeting its climate and energy goals, while also managing its dependencies on Chinese supply chains.
Going green without China? | European Union Institute for Security Studies (europa.eu)
European Union – USA
(Thomas Carothers and Richard Youngs – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Despite a favorable political environment in recent years on both sides of the Atlantic for close European-U.S. cooperation on international democracy support, only policy convergence has been achieved.
India
(Laxman Kumar Behera – Observer Research Foundation) Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has launched many reforms under the ‘Make in India’ and ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ initiatives to strengthen India’s moribund defence industry. These reforms have led to some visible improvements, as evidenced by increased defence production and exports, and a large bank of in-principle government approvals for future domestic production. However, several challenges persist that require urgent attention. In particular, efforts must be made to scale up defence production to at least match the procurement budget of the armed forces to minimise direct imports. The research and development capacity of the industry needs significant improvement to reduce the dependence on external sources for technology and input materials. The government must also expedite its procurement decision-making cycle to quickly translate the reform measures into actual production and delivery.
India’s Defence Industry: Achievements and Challenges (orfonline.org)
(Aparna Roy – Observer Research Foundation) India’s critical water infrastructure must be built to withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from climate disruptions.
Climate crisis compass for water management (orfonline.org)
(Niranjan Sahoo – Observer Research Foundation) On 16 April, security forces neutralised 29 alleged Maoists in the forests of Kanker district (Bastar division) in Chhattisgarh. The Kanker joint operation led by the Border Security Force and District Reserve Guard (DRG) of Kanker has become billed as the most successful security operation since the formation of Chhattisgarh in 2000. Out of 29 casualties, two of the top Maoists, Lalita and Shankar belonging to Bastar divisional committee, were neutralised by the security forces. It is also speculated that the entire Partapur Area Committee of CPI-Maoist has been eliminated in the encounter.
Countering Maoist Insurgency: Has Chhattisgarh turned the corner? (orfonline.org)
India – Denmark
(Debasis Bhattacharya – Vivekananda International Foundation) India and Denmark are natural partners connected by common democratic traditions, strong institutional affinity and historical links of trade relations dating back to 400 years ago. The diplomatic relations between New Delhi and Copenhagen were established in September 1949.
India – Russia
(Aleksei Zakharova – IFRI) A paper examines the trajectory of India-Russia relations post-February 2022. The war in Ukraine emerged as a significant challenge for bilateral ties, presenting new obstacles to political and diplomatic relations and intensifying the previous difficulties in developing economic cooperation.
Indonesia
(Thibault Michel – IFRI) Indonesia is a country that is booming economically and demographically. This not only matters for regional political and energy security, but also increasingly, for the world’s energy transitions, due to Indonesia’s large metal reserves, as well as its equally important coal consumption in industry and for power generation.
Indonesia – China
(Evan A. Laksmana – IISS) Indonesia and China held high-level meetings in March and April to discuss bilateral defence ties. Their cooperation, however, is likely to remain hamstrung by underdeveloped military education and training exchanges, infrequent combined exercises and non-existent defence-industrial collaboration.
The underwhelming defence ties between Indonesia and China (iiss.org)
Japan
(Eliot Silverberg – ASPI The Strategist) As Japan becomes more forward-leading in national security, it is signaling a greater interest in the wider world. But a review of its latest moves shows its main focus is on reinforcing its armed forces, particularly through a new military command structure with its most important ally, the United States.
Japan – India
(Yukiko Kimishima Harada – Asian Development Bank Institute) India’s inaugural high-speed railway (HSR), the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail (MAHSR) project, is under construction through collaboration between the Indian and Japanese governments (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan 2017) using Japanese HSR (Shinkansen) technology. The project requires a workforce that understands the system’s engineering concepts, practical applications, and safety policy at the operation and maintenance (O&M) phase. To achieve this, the MAHSR project will receive support from Japan to train its key O&M personnel.
Kyrgyzstan
(Vladyslav Wallace, Alejandro Martín Rodríguez – Belfer Center) Kyrgyzstan is currently at a critical geopolitical juncture in which it is forced to confront its longstanding ties with Russia against a backdrop of internal and external pressures towards autocracy. Once celebrated as the ‘island of democracy’ in Central Asia, the small nation faces significant challenges in light of internal authoritarian tendencies and external pressure following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This report, therefore, examines the role of Kyrgyzstan within the global democracy versus autocracy debate that has intensified in the past two years and assesses President Japarov’s neutrality with regards to Russia’s invasion and Bishkek’s shifting allegiances.
Kyrgyzstan in Crisis: A Geopolitical Juncture | Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Nepal
(Hari Bansh Jha – Vivekananda International Foundation) After COVID-19, certain signs of economic recovery are being visualised in Nepal. The rate of economic growth that was merely 1.9 per cent a year ago in 2023 is almost set to rebound to 3.3 per cent in the current fiscal year 2023-24. As per the Nepal Living Standard Survey 2022-23, poverty in Nepal dropped from 25 per cent in 2011 to 3.6 per cent in 2023. With this development, there has been a reduction in the prosperity gap and inequality among different sections of society. On top of this, the country is likely to graduate from the least developing countries (LDCs) category by 2026.
Gloomy Economy Amidst Recovery in Nepal | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
North Korea
(Khang X. Vu – Lowy The Interpreter) In a rare display, North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un shed tears when discussing his country’s declining birth rate in December 2023. It was the first time that North Korea had publicly acknowledged population decline to be a problem. Kim chose to put the onus on mothers to prevent “the birth rate from falling” and to nurture children. This month, North Korea promoted a maternity protection policy to encourage more births and reduce the infant mortality rate.
North Korea’s population problem | Lowy Institute
Quad
(Deepak Pant – Observer Research Foundation) The Indo-Pacific region is becoming the world’s new strategic and economic ‘centre of gravity’. Indeed, the accelerated trajectory of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in recent years highlights the region’s growing importance. The Quad countries have committed to a rules-based order and a free and open Indo-Pacific, and are aiming to develop resilience across domains, such as in the maritime space, to counter and deter aggressive behaviour in the region. Aerospace power will be a significant element and enabler in deterrence in the region’s maritime spaces. As such, the Quad countries must enhance cooperation in the aerospace power domain to build robust resilience and deterrence against coercive actions. This brief assesses the need for and scope of cooperation among Quad air forces and recommends a roadmap to achieve such collaboration in the aerospace power domain.
Enhancing Aerospace Power Engagement Among the Quad Countries: A Roadmap (orfonline.org)
Russia
(IISS) William Alberque is joined by Anna Péczeli to discuss Russian perspectives on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Partial and Threshold Bans.
Russia and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty with Anna Péczeli (iiss.org)
Russia – North Korea
(Abhishek Sharma, Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) Factors like the rise of the Indo-Pacific as a theatre for great power competition and the Ukraine war have pushed Russia and North Korea closer together.
Reviving the old bonhomie: Assessing the next phase of North Korea-Russia ties (orfonline.org)
Russia – USA
(Fiona Hill, Andrew S. Weiss, Christopher S. Chivvis – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has brought bilateral relations with the United States to their lowest point since the Cuban missile crisis. Yet Russia remains a global actor that holds immense sway over a wide variety of other U.S. foreign policy priorities, including strategic competition with China, challenges with Iran and North Korea, and safeguarding the health of the global economy. Faced with this new reality, how can U.S. policymakers support security in Europe while also making progress on their other foreign policy objectives where Russia matters? And with Vladimir Putin claiming to be at war with the West, how might the United States avert catastrophe with Russia?
Pivotal States: Russia and U.S. Global Strategy – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
SDGs
(Thomas Beloe, Ahtesham Khan – UNDP) Tax revenue remains the most sustainable source of income for governments and plays a crucial role in financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It diminishes the need for international assistance and contributes to the repayment of burdensome debt, ultimately strengthening a country’s ability to withstand external shocks.
Submarine Forces
(Johannes R. Fischbach – IISS) Submarine forces in many countries are being modernised, but many navies still operate systems that are obsolescent or obsolete, according to new Military Balance+ data. The database’s newly added submarine capability categories allow for in-depth analysis of global submarine inventories and developments.
Submarine modernisation plans and new sub-surface dynamics (iiss.org)
Turkiye
(IISS) Turkiye’s defence industry has undergone dramatic changes over the last 50 years and the country has become a significant defence exporter. In this report, as part of a joint project with the IISS, researchers from the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research explore this process and the issues that lie ahead.
From Client to Competitor: The Rise of Turkiye’s Defence Industry (iiss.org)
(Dalia Ghanem – EUISS) Türkiye’s footprint in various regions of the world has expanded. This is evident not only in economic terms but also in the country’s projection of its soft power, reflected in a myriad of educational and outreach initiatives. It furthermore has a rising profile as a regional weapons supplier, particularly of armed drones. Under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ankara is clearly pursuing an ambitious vision in the diplomatic, economic and military spheres.
Türkiye’s cards in the world | European Union Institute for Security Studies (europa.eu)
USA
(Saskia Brechenmacher – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) In a context of democratic erosion, U.S. civil society organizations face a widening array of legal, political, and security threats. They can learn from the experiences of civic activists in backsliding democracies around the world.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
