LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
1 – (IISS) William Alberque is joined by Dr Simona Soare to explore the nuances of AI as a dual-use technology, its integration into military and civilian sectors, and the ethical, legal, and strategic challenges it represents.
Artificial intelligence controls with Simona Soare (iiss.org)
2 – (Melissa Kay Diliberti, Heather L. Schwartz, Sy Doan, Anna Shapiro, Lydia R. Rainey, Robin J. Lake – RAND Corporation) The release of such generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools as ChatGPT in 2022 was a major advancement in the field of AI. Two burning questions for kindergarten through grade 12 (K–12) educators are to what extent new generative AI tools will change teaching and whether they will improve learning.
Using Artificial Intelligence Tools in K–12 Classrooms | RAND
3 – (Todd C. Helmus, Bilva Chandra – RAND Corporation) A paper highlights the ecosystem of generative artificial intelligence (AI) threats to information integrity and democracy and the potential policy responses to mitigate the nexus of those evolving threats. The authors focus on the information environment and how generative AI—such as large language models or AI-generated images and audio—is able to accelerate existing harms on the internet and beyond. The policy options that could address these complex problems are vast, varying from much-needed social media reforms to using federal agencies to create sweeping standards for AI-generated content. The authors provide an overview of the risks that generative AI presents to democratic systems, as well as tangible and detailed whole-of-government and societal solutions to mitigate these risks at scale.
Brazil
(Irene Mia – IISS) Brazil’s enduring aspiration for great-power status will receive a significant boost through its leadership of the G20, BRICS and COP conferences in 2024–25. President Lula’s clear foreign-policy vision, and Brazil’s rising geopolitical importance in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical order, are conducive to the country realising its global ambitions, as long as it focuses its efforts strategically.
Brazil’s (geopolitical) moment? (iiss.org)
China
(Henry Devitt – East Asia Forum) In January 2024, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a youth unemployment rate of 14.9 per cent, highlighting a structural misalignment between an oversupply of tertiary graduates and a limited services sector unable to accommodate them. Growing youth unemployment is also exacerbated by cultural preferences for tertiary education, leading to a perception of vocational work as insecure and decreasing the prestige of vocational roles. The services industry has been unable to absorb the surge in tertiary-educated individuals partly due to regulatory tightening and the decimation of small- and medium-sized enterprises during the COVID-19 lockdowns.
Cultural attitudes key to fixing Chinese youth unemployment | East Asia Forum
China – Middle East
1 – (Center for Strategic & International Studies) Jon Alterman testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission about China’s diplomatic engagement with the Middle East and the country’s efforts to shape a new world order.
China and the Middle East (csis.org)
2 – (Ahmed Aboudouh – Chatham House) The drone and missile attacks launched by Iran against Israel on 13 April, and the subsequent Israeli response, have thrown into doubt the stability of the Saudi–Iran reconciliation facilitated by China last year. The attacks have dramatically altered the strategic landscape, casting uncertainty over regional security and testing China’s recently earned reputation as a credible mediator.
European Union – India
(Omkar Sathe, Observer Research Foundation) The EU-India FTA can open up the European market for India, but to use GIs effectively, much work needs to happen domestically
Geographical Indications amidst the EU–India FTA: An underexploited opportunity (orfonline.org)
India
(Antoine Levesques – IISS) India’s recent test of an Agni-V missile using a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) is a milestone in the country’s long-held ambition to acquire an ICBM which could credibly inflict unacceptable damage on Chinese cities.
India shows its deterrent holds Chinese cities at risk (iiss.org)
India – South China Sea
(Harsh V. Pant, Pratnashree Basu – Observer Research Foundation) New Delhi’s strategic recalibration recognises the South China Sea’s critical importance to regional security and the global maritime order
India’s nuanced approach in the South China Sea (orfonline.org)
Middle East
1 – (Atlantic Council) It was a show of force. Early on Friday, the Israeli military reportedly carried out a strike on a military target near the Iranian city of Isfahan. While there is an Iranian nuclear facility nearby, early reports indicated that it was not hit in the strike, and Israeli and Iranian officials seemed eager to downplay the impact. How should we interpret the signals that both sides are sending? Is this the last move in a dangerous geopolitical chess match?
2 – (Shaan Shaikh – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On April 13, Iran launched a large salvo of missiles and drones at Israel. Designated “Operation True Promise,” the attack reportedly included around 170 drones, 120 surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles. It came in retaliation to an Israeli airstrike on April 1 against an Iranian diplomatic base in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including the Quds Force’s General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. Iran’s attack marked the first time that Tehran has directly attacked Israel from Iranian territory. On April 18, Israel responded in turn with airstrikes near Isfahan and Tabriz, Iran. Details on this attack are still coming in. Unconfirmed imagery suggests Israel struck at Iranian targets with some number of Sparrow air-launched ballistic missiles. Iranian leaders have claimed that their air defenses fended off the attack, which is unlikely but signals that they will not respond.
The Iran-Israel Air Conflict, One Week In (csis.org)
Uganda
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) In its bid to dodge the American economic bullet, Uganda is seeking new strategic and trade partnerships beyond Beijing. In India, it may see one such opportunity
USA – Ukraine
1 – (Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) It’s tempting ahead of this weekend’s decisive US House of Representatives vote on additional aid to Ukraine to quote Winston Churchill’s aphorism: “Americans will always do the right thing, once they have exhausted all other possibilities.”
Failure to support Ukraine now would be ‘geopolitical malpractice’ – Atlantic Council
2 – (Stephen Sestanovich – Council on Foreign Relations) The two-year-old war in Ukraine—which is far from deadlocked—could pivot dramatically in the coming months. U.S. decisions will play a decisive role.
What Happened to ‘Stalemate’ in Ukraine? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
