LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(James Baylis – ASPI The Strategist) Stealing other countries’ secrets is the form of intelligence gathering that gets most attention—and resources. But a mass of information is publicly available and just waiting to be collected, to produce what’s called open-source intelligence (OSINT).
OSINT capability should be dispersed through government | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – UK
(Euan Graham – ASPI The Strategist) Australia and Britain have concluded a new treaty-level Defence and Security Cooperation Agreement (DSCA). To what extent does this move the dial of their close defence relationship towards a formal alliance? This question matters because the informal, customary nature of the Australia-UK relationship may no longer be appropriate for the strategic tests that lie ahead.
Australia – Vietnam
(Bich Tran – Lowy The Interpreter) On 7 March, Australia and Vietnam elevated their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP), the highest level in Hanoi’s diplomatic classification. This places Australia among Vietnam’s most important economic and security partners, including China, Russia, India, South Korea, the United States and Japan (in order of signing respective agreements). The upgrade is a testament of two like-minded middle powers with a common vision for the Indo-Pacific.
Australia-Vietnam: Middle powers alike | Lowy Institute
East Asia
(Jayant Menon – East Asia Forum) The rise of anti-globalisation sentiment and protectionism, magnified by COVID-19, is altering trade patterns worldwide and in East Asia. But despite these changes, the export-led model will remain viable due to continued commitment to free and open trade in the region and a shift towards service trade and digitalisation, although challenges may still arise from external geopolitical tensions.
The export-led model is evolving, not dying | East Asia Forum
Europe
(Manoj Joshi – Observer Research Foundation) The writing on the wall has been there for sometime. since the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014, it has been clear that Europe needed to get its act together on its defence. Yet, the sense of urgency has only hit after the full-fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Strengthening Europe’s defense amidst Russian invasion and rise of Trump (orfonline.org)
India
1 – (Erin Watson – Observer Research Foundation) India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), known as India Stack, has not only had a profound impact on the country’s economy but also has potential significance for global economic integration. This brief elucidates how this framework has facilitated financial inclusion, spurred innovation, and propelled economic growth in India. It highlights the foundational role of the India Stack in transforming the country’s financial landscape, and advocates for its adoption as a model for other countries seeking to leverage digital technologies for economic development. As nations navigate the digital evolution of the global economy, integration with the India Stack offers a promising pathway towards fostering greater economic cooperation and inclusive growth on a global scale.
The India Stack as a Potential Gateway to Global Economic Integration (orfonline.org)
2 – (Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) A day might be a long time in politics, but in foreign policy, even a decade is usually not long enough to merit a serious appraisal. The last decade, however, has witnessed a phenomenal change in both the scale and the scope of global politics. At the same time, politics in India has undergone a tectonic shift too. Inevitably then, India’s foreign policy was bound to be affected as well. But it’s not just that. Beyond global shifts, it is also Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal involvement in the realm of external relations that has accorded India a unique place in contemporary international affairs today.
10 Years Of Modi’s Foreign Policy: Aspiration Meets Self-Assurance (orfonline.org)
Japan – Ukraine
(Marin Ekstrom, Wilder Alejandro Sánchez – Lowy The Interpreter) Since the Russian invasion in 2022, Japan has emerged as a steadfast supporter of Ukraine. The notoriously immigration-resistant Japan has so far accepted 2,500 Ukrainian refugees. In recognition that Ukraine will face a daunting reconstruction process, Japanese and Ukrainian government and business officials gathered for the “Japan-Ukraine Conference for Promotion of Economic Growth and Reconstruction” in February this year. As part of the gathering, 56 cooperation agreements were signed to develop infrastructure, target critical economic sectors for growth, and expand overall trade.
The message Japan sends by backing Ukraine | Lowy Institute
Nepal
(Kushal Pokharel – East Asia Forum) Nepal’s federal democratic republic system, focussing on decentralised governance, continues to receive mixed reviews regarding its effectiveness and impact. Despite public trust skewed towards local governments, obstacles like political parties’ failure to orient cadres to the federal structure and the hindrance of local governments by the federal system have raised concerns. This has highlighted the importance of strengthening the administrative and financial capacities of sub-national entities, enabling better service delivery, sustainable development and, ultimately, true federalism. More importantly, the civil service administration — usually accustomed to centralising power and authority — needs more orientation to function under the decentralised system of governance.
Overcoming hurdles to effective sub-national governance in Nepal | East Asia Forum
Pakistan
(Sameer Patil, Sarral Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) After much waiting, Pakistan’s election drama appears to be over, with Shehbaz Sharif becoming the Prime Minister for the second time after his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) joined hands with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) to form a coalition government. The two parties may claim that they have taken this step to save Pakistan from instability; however, in reality, this is only poised to exacerbate the economic and political chaos. In the days ahead, the new government will have its task cut out to alleviate Pakistan’s troubles while also pandering to the military’s whims and fancies.
The military’s continuing hold over Pakistan (orfonline.org)
Philippines
(Rahul Mishra, Peter Brian M. Wang – Lowy The Interpreter) The failure of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to secure a substantive joint statement to address South China Sea disputes at last year’s leaders’ summit and the more recent meeting with Australia this month in Melbourne brought back memories. Similar efforts failed in 2012 and 2016. The consensus decision-making model of the organisation can be a weakness, especially in times of crisis, underscoring China’s divisive impact on the group. In the past, Cambodia has been accused of being an obstacle. It’s a number that seems to be growing.
The Philippines seeks out old friends and new | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Lydia Khalil – Lowy The Interpreter) President Vladimir Putin has long sought to restore Russia’s global status after the personally and nationally humiliating defeat of the Cold War. One of the ways he has done so is through Russia’s involvement in the Middle East – highlighted by Russia’s 2015 military intervention in Syria but also evidenced in many other ways. By acting as a spoiler in Afghanistan, Putin also sought to accelerate and take advantage of the United States’ own humiliating withdrawal from the region to shore up Russia’s position as a major power.
Sweden – NATO
(Carla Norrlof – ASPI The Strategist) On March 7, Sweden officially joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, ending its 200-year-old policy of neutrality. The decision was largely influenced by the changing security environment following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and geographic considerations.
The meaning of Sweden’s NATO accession | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
