LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Armenia
(Olesya Vartanyan – Crisis Group) Armenia is having problems integrating over 100,000 refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan took control of the enclave in September 2023. Yerevan has tried to be generous, but it lacks funds and a long-term plan, leaving the displaced people exposed and facing an uncertain future.
Armenia Struggles to Cope with Exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh | Crisis Group
Climate Action
1 – (Mohamed Adow, Mark Bynoe, Fatuma Hussein, Keith Nichols and Chikondi Thangata – World Resources Institute) As the climate crisis ratchets up, so, too, must global efforts to address its root causes and escalating impacts. This means rapidly shifting societies and economies to pathways that are consistent with low-carbon, climate-resilient development.
5 Key Principles for the Just Transitions Work Programme | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
2 – (Kyla Aiuto, Sarah Huckins and Hannah Momblanco – World Resources Institute) The origin of greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting, or measuring emissions from companies and other entities, dates to the late 1990s, but interest has grown exponentially in the past few years with the proliferation of both voluntary and more recently, mandatory corporate climate disclosure initiatives.
Conflict Worldwide
(Crisis Group) CrisisWatch keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
CrisisWatch: February Trends and March Alerts 2024 (crisisgroup.org)
Global Defense
(Guido L. Torres, Laura Delgado López, Ryan C. Berg, and Henry Ziemer – Center for Strategic & International Studies) In the evolving landscape of global defense, the arms race has metamorphosed from a contest of nuclear might to one of unparalleled speed. Hypersonic weapons (capable of exceeding five times the speed of sound), promise to revolutionize modern warfare. China’s strides in the hypersonic field are a manifestation of its broader strategic intentions and underscore its drive toward technological and military preeminence. This journey toward mastering hypersonic technology is not merely for show; it is about redefining the global balance of military power.
Haiti
(Diana Roy and Rocio Cara Labrador – Council on Foreign Relations) Once the wealthiest colony in the Americas, Haiti is now the Western Hemisphere’s poorest country, with more than half of its population living below the World Bank’s poverty line. Foreign intervention and debt, political instability, and natural disasters have long stymied development efforts in Haiti, where governance remains paralyzed by a presidential assassination and violent civil unrest. While the Joe Biden administration has ruled out sending U.S. troops to the island, it has pledged to provide financial support for a UN-authorized, Kenya-led multinational force to fight Haiti’s powerful gangs.
Haiti’s Troubled Path to Development | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
India
(Surjit S. Bhalla and Karan Bhasin – Brookings) India has just released its official consumption expenditure data for 2022-23, providing the first official survey-based poverty estimates for India in over ten years. The previous official survey was conducted from 2011-12, and the absence of up-to-date data for India has added considerable uncertainty to global poverty headcount ratios.
India eliminates extreme poverty | Brookings
Iran
(Sanam Vakil – Chatham House) Iran’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts election held on 1 March should not be seen as a democratic exercise where people express their will at the ballot box. As in many authoritarian countries, elections in Iran have long been used to legitimize the power and influence of the ruling elite.
Iran’s electoral facade | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Near East
1 – (Jonathan Panikoff – Atlantic Council) Last week, as Israel sought to distribute humanitarian aid in northern Gaza, more than one hundred Gazans were left dead and hundreds more were injured. Palestinians on the ground said Israeli forces engaged in “extensive shooting.” Israel said that there were two different incidents and that its fire caused fewer than ten casualties. The competing narratives are a microcosm of the war itself, one in which neither Israelis nor Palestinians, nor the millions of supporters of each, can credibly recognize the pain or humanity of the other side.
The lost humanity of the crisis in Gaza – Atlantic Council
2 – (Javed Ali – Defense One) Most Americans have likely never heard of Esmail Ghaani, despite his fingerprints being over a slew of recent attacks on U.S. targets. As the powerful chief of the Quds Force, the unconventional warfare wing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Ghaani is charged with overseeing Tehran’s network of allied and proxy groups across the Middle East.
Russia – China
(Roman Kolodii, Giangiuseppe Pili and Jack Crawford – RUSI) Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, China has kept the world in suspense regarding its military aid to Moscow. While China remains hesitant about the breadth and intensity of its military support for Russia, its cooperation with Moscow on civilian cellular and satellite technologies could have significant intelligence and military outcomes.
Russia – Sahel
(Crisis Group) Crisis Group’s Sahel director, Jean-Hervé Jezequel, discusses the decision of military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to withdraw from the regional bloc ECOWAS, their campaigns against jihadist insurgencies, backed by Russian mercenaries and what might lie ahead for the region.
Military Rule and Russian Mercenaries in the Sahel | Crisis Group
Russian War in Ukraine
(John R. Deni – Defense One) Conventional wisdom is that time is on Russia’s side as Ukraine battles to fend off Moscow’s invasion. Although much remains unclear, it seems certain that if Congress fails to fund more military assistance to Ukraine or if U.S. policy shifts dramatically after Inauguration Day 2025, Kyiv may be forced to sue for peace. However, if these two possibilities do not come to pass, and if Ukraine can hold out through next winter, there are some indications that the tide will turn in Kyiv’s favor.
Look deeper: Time may be on Ukraine’s side – Defense One
USA
1 – (Gabriel R. Sanchez – Brookings) Recently, passage of a highly anticipated bipartisan immigration and foreign aid bill was killed by former President Trump, a fierce opponent of a border deal who lobbied Republicans to vote against the bill even though it contained many items that they initially supported. Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell bowed to Trump’s wishes and voted against it despite leading the development of the legislation and garnering support for it within his party.
Immigration policy could determine the next president of the United States | Brookings
2 – The ballooning use of unmanned technologies including drones has consequences for the U.S. nuclear stockpile and associated infrastructure, according to the leader of Strategic Command.
Drones, robotic tech pose threat to US nuclear security, general says (defensenews.com)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
