LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Nuovo Umanesimo per la Pace / New Humanism for Peace (Marco Emanuele)
- Il vincolo, i limiti e il respiro della Storia / The bond, the limits and the breath of History
- Pace nell’inter-in-dipendenza / Peace in inter-in-dependence
- La pace nella complessità / Peace in complexity
- Medio Oriente: l’impasse negoziale accresce il rischio di una guerra globale (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Israelis and Palestinians: prospects for coexistence. In dialogue with Prof. Arie Kacowicz (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
- Medio Oriente, diplomazia USA al lavoro sul fronte Libano-Hezbollah (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia – China
(Justin Bassi – ASPI The Strategist) Last week’s Chinese embassy press conference was a further effort to corral Australia into compliance and compromise with Beijing’s views
Australia – Ukraine
(Mick Ryan – Lowy The Interpreter) The recent debate about the future of the Australian Army’s decommissioned Taipan helicopters has highlighted a lack of coordination and transparency in Australia’s approach to supporting Ukraine
An Australian strategy for improved aid to Ukraine | Lowy Institute
China
(Masaaki Yatsuzuka – ASPI The Strategist) Last December, the Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) appointed Dong Jun, former commander of the People’s Liberation Army navy (PLAN), as China’s new defence minister more than two months after his predecessor was dismissed
France
(Tim Lawrenson, Douglas Barrie – INSS) Dassault’s order backlog for Rafales has reached new heights. While a backlog is a good problem to have, it is still a problem
Dassault’s whirlwind of Rafale orders may be too much of a good thing (iiss.org)
Global Perspectives
1 – (Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Amid the geopolitical gloom that pervaded the World Economic Forum here this past week—with intractable wars in Europe and the Mideast and unsettling tensions in Asia—International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva made a case for optimism, quoting the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes
Davos Dispatch: The case for optimism amid global upheaval – Atlantic Council
2 – (Indermit Gill, M. Ayhan Kose – Brookings) Last year, the global economy defied expectations in potentially history-making ways. The global economy did not suffer a significant downturn. It merely slowed. This was an unfamiliar plotline: It implies the world economy has grown more resilient in ways we might not yet fully understand
5 major risks confronting the global economy in 2024 | Brookings
Libya
(Stephanie Turco Williams – Brookings) There have been few shifts in the landscape of Libya’s numerous hybrid armed groups in the past year
Déjà vu: The trajectory of Libyan armed groups in 2024 | Brookings
Near East
1 – (Jeffrey Feltman – Brookings) Given the immense destruction and humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, Israel’s military response to Hamas’ October 7 depraved terrorist attack and war crime abductions dominates current media coverage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But journalists and others have also documented the precarious situation in the West Bank, where escalating settler violence against Palestinian civilians risks igniting a third Palestinian intifada
Extremist Israeli settlers are nonstate armed actors | Brookings
2 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah BouHabib discusses developments in the Middle East, increasing tensions with Israel, and Lebanon’s perspective on the conflict and ongoing efforts to deescalate tensions
North America
(Luz María de la Mora – Atlantic Council) January 1 of this year marked the thirtieth anniversary of North America’s most ambitious integration project, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
Russia
1 – (William Alberque – INSS) Russian nuclear doctrine, especially regarding its large stockpile of non-strategic nuclear weapons, has become one of the most pressing issues in Euro-Atlantic security. This report aims to build an understanding of Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons doctrine through empirical research, including by examining the continuities and discontinuities in doctrine across time, through the Cold War, to the collapse of the Soviet Union, to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and in Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine
2 – (Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo – Defense News) Russian defense exports agency Rosoboronexport has said it wants to establish drone production facilities in the Middle Eastern region, including the UAE, as Moscow attempts to grab market share in a region it deems receptive to the idea
Russia angles for drone-making partners in the Middle East (defensenews.com)
Tech Perspectives & Cyber
1 – (Lauren Kahn – Lawfare) (USA) The Political Declaration on the Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy is a crucial step for developing international standards
2 – (Jonathan G. Cedarbaum, Matt Gluck – Lawfare) (USA) Much of Congress’s cyber policy emerges from the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). What are the most important pieces of cyber legislation in this year’s Act?
Cyber Provisions in the FY2024 NDAA | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
3 – (Darren Linvill, Patrick Warren – Lawfare) (Russia) State-backed disinformation campaigns are increasingly fueled by artificial intelligence and other new digital technologies, but still grounded in tried-and-true methods and tradecraft
New Russian Disinformation Campaigns Prove the Past Is Prequel | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
4 – (Anshu Siripurapu, Noah Berman – Council on Foreign Relations) Since the creation of bitcoin in 2009, cryptocurrencies have exploded in popularity and are today collectively worth more than $1 trillion
5 – (Daniel Egel, Jim Mignano, Sale Lilly, James V. Marrone, Max Rangeley, Charles P. Ries, Jessie Wang, Dulani Woods – RAND Corporation) (USA-China) This report describes the potential role of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in strategic competition
Central Bank Digital Currencies and U.S. Strategic Competition with China | RAND
6 – (Antoine Levesques – IISS) (India) India is just starting to use artificial intelligence for national-defence purposes, but it plans to increase these capabilities by working with domestic industry and through burgeoning overseas partnerships
Early steps in India’s use of AI for defence (iiss.org)
7 – (Patrick Tucker – Defense One) (USA) DOD pulled off unmanned amphibious landings, self-coding drones, and more just in the last year. What’s next?
The Pentagon is already testing tomorrow’s AI-powered swarm drones, ships – Defense One
USA
1 – (Sarah Weilant, Scott Savitz, Dan Abel – RAND Corporation) The U.S. Coast Guard is in high demand globally, engaging with over 160 countries on every continent and in every ocean
Advancing the U.S. Coast Guard’s Global Impact | RAND
2 – (Todd Harrison – Defense One) Last week, the chief of space operations publicly released a white paper he has been talking about for the past year
Where the Space Force’s new ‘theory of success’ succeeds – Defense One
3 – (Colin Demarest – Defense News) The U.S. Department of Defense must clearly commit to directed-energy weapons, or DEW, and shore up domestic sources of requisite materials to make them if it wants to deploy the futuristic arms en masse, industry advocates say
Directed-energy weapons need full Pentagon commitment, industry says (defensenews.com)
USA – China
(Jacob Feldgoise – CSET) As the U.S. government tightens its controls on China’s semiconductor ecosystem, a new dimension is increasingly worrying Congress: the open-source chip architecture known as RISC-V (pronounced “risk-five”). This blog post provides an introduction to the RISC-V architecture and an explanation of what policy-makers can do to address concerns about this open architecture
RISC-V: What it is and Why it Matters | Center for Security and Emerging Technology (georgetown.edu)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
