All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye
TOPICS
- (Defense – Military – Security) Michael P. Marletto, The National Interest. As the United States Marine Corps seeks to organize, train, and equip itself for contending with existing and emerging twenty-first-century security challenges, it has become clear that the developers, advocates, and critics of Force Design (FD) 2030 have very different visions of the future global security environment. Force Design 2030: Transforming to Irrelevance
- (Defense – Military – Security) Peter Briggs, The Strategist. In my previous post, I suggested that Australia has insufficient submarine personnel to start a transition to nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) while maintaining its existing operational capability to deploy at least two Collins-class submarines in harm’s way. I argued that the capability to deploy two submarines, be they nuclear or conventionally powered, must be preserved throughout the transition if we are to defend Australia in the difficult times now unfolding. Preserving an Australian submarine capability: a wicked problem hedged
WORLDS
- (Asia Pacific – USA – China) Qingguo Jia, East Asia Forum. Today the possibility of consolidating an inclusive regional architecture for comprehensive security in the Asia Pacific has become almost inconceivable. This is because on-going China–US tension appears to have excluded that option. Reconstructing China’s role in regional security
- (Brazil) JK Tripathi, VIF. Last Sunday, the much- awaited results of the presidential election in Brazil were announced. As expected, the two- time president from 2002 to 2010- Luis Inacio Lula da Silva- defeated his arch rival and the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the run off as the first round was indecisive with Lula receiving 43.43% as against 43.20% received by Bolsonaro. In the runoff, Socialist leader Lula secured 50.9% of the total valid votes as against 49.1% received by his opponent and far right leader. Curiously, the difference between the votes received by the two candidates is 21,39,644 which is less than half of 57,00443 votes found invalid. This means the election could have swung either way had there not been so many invalid votes. Congratulatory messages to septuagenarian Lula from world leaders including Joe Biden are pouring in. The incumbent president has accepted the result of the elections throughout the campaign he had been claiming that the elections through electronic ballot will be manipulated against him. Presidential elections in Brazil: Is Pink Tide Engulfing Latin America Again?
- (Brazil – Russia) Boris Perius Zabolotsky, Valdai Discussion Club. The Brazilian presidential elections were the most highly anticipated and closely watched in recent times, and were described as the “most important in decades”. In a close contest, former Brazilian President Lula da Silva (PT – Workers’ Party), defeated his opponent, current President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro (PL – Liberal Party). Never before in the history of Brazil has the country faced such striking political polarisation and violence. These features could be a reflection of a country that has lost relevance in recent years and now needs to seek international insertion in an increasingly challenging and unstable world. Brazil and Russia: What Can Russia Expect from the New Government of Lula da Silva?
- (China – Indo Pacific) Robert Glasser, The Strategist. Next week’s meeting of the G20, hosted by Indonesia, will feature discussions on climate change and the need to accelerate the global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Jakarta is also expected formally to announce that it’s joining the Just Energy Transition Partnership, a multibillion-dollar G7 initiative led by the US, France, Germany, the UK and the EU that’s designed to assist emerging economies with accelerating their transitions to renewables. China’s investment in renewable energy in the Indo-Pacific brings risks—and opportunities
- (Iran) Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The regime continued linking the ongoing protests with terrorism on November 6 as part of an information operation to delegitimize protesters and their grievances. Iran Crisis Update, November 6
- (Italy) Federico Fubini, Project Syndicate, The Strategist. When Giorgia Meloni delivered her maiden speech in Italy’s Chamber of Deputies on 25 October, it was hard to know what to believe—the language or the body language, the message or the choice of words. Meloni, a former Benito Mussolini admirer and teenage neo-fascist activist, whose Brothers of Italy party leads the new government coalition, now reigns over the decaying political class of an ageing country. How does Italy’s first-ever female prime minister (and, at 45, its second youngest), raised by a single mother in a rough Rome neighbourhood, intend to govern a country famous for its low social mobility and the European Union’s second-lowest female employment rate? Meloni’s balancing act
- (North Korea) Taesuh Cha, The National Interest. Under the shadow of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s threat of nuclear weapons use in Ukraine, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) recently carried out a flurry of missile launches. The tests were a response to joint military exercises by South Korea, the United States, and Japan and aimed to test the DPRK’s capability to strike the Republic of Korea (ROK) with tactical nuclear weapons. In this dire context of security dilemma, there needs to be a rethink of what strategic objectives on the Korean Peninsula should look like, and whether there has been a fundamental paradigm shift in the North Korean question—a realist turn in the wake of the unipolar moment. Confronting the North Korean Question in a Post-Unipolar World
- (Russia – Ukraine) Sorin Adam Matei, The National Interest. Russian president Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened Ukraine and its supporters with a nuclear attack that will settle the war he started on February 24, 2022. Some observers claim that the threat is a mere rhetorical trick, while others believe it is part of the Russian military doctrine to escalate a conflict, even by nuclear means, to bring the enemy to the negotiation table. A 2021 risk assessment study by Maj. Stephen Redmon, at the time enrolled in the U.S. Army Command’s School of Advanced Military Studies, warned that the Russian use of low-yield nuclear weapons is likely and the threat level is high. However, even if the Russian doctrine makes it possible, does a nuclear attack practically make sense? Will a nuclear bomb help Russia effectively end and win the war? And if so, in what way? The following four scenarios suggest that Russia would get far less from its nuclear threats even if it follows through on them. Putin Will Think Twice Before Nuking Ukraine
- (Russia – Ukraine) Kateryna Stepanenko and Mason Clark, ISW. Key Kremlin officials began collectively deescalating their rhetoric regarding the use of nuclear weapons in early November. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 6
