Geostrategic environment (october 12, 2022)

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TOPICS

• (Critical Minerals) Adnan Mazarei and Luc Leruth, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance. With the accelerating transition away from fossil fuels, awareness of the role of minerals critical to the production of clean energy (including cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements) has increased. There is a sharper focus on rising prices; production; delivery delays; as well as on the vulnerability of their supply chains. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated these concerns. Green Energy Depends on Critical Minerals. Who Controls the Supply Chains?
• (Cybersecurity) Kevin Poireault, Infosecurity. Researchers from European cybersecurity vendor ESET have found previously undocumented custom backdoors and tools used by a relatively new APT group called Polonium. Polonium Uses Seven Backdoor Variants to Spy on Israeli Organizations
• (Cybersecurity) James Coker, Infosecurity. The US government is developing a “collective defense” approach to cybersecurity in response to the evolving threat landscape. This strategy was discussed by Anne Dunkin, chief information officer for the US Department of Energy (DoE) during the keynote session on Day 1 of the (ISC)2 Security Congress 2022. #ISC2Congress: US Government is Embracing ‘Collective Defense’
• (Cybersecurity) Beth Maundrill, Infosecurity. Following Google’s acquisition of cybersecurity groups Siemplify and Mandiant, the US tech giant has sought to bring all of its cloud capabilities under one roof with the launch of Chronicle Security Operations – Google Unifies Recent Acquisitions Under New Cloud Security Offering
• (Cybersecurity) James Coker, Infosecurity. Japanese car giant Toyota has warned that nearly 300,000 customers may have had their personal data leaked after an access key was publicly available on GitHub for almost five years. Toyota Reveals Data Leak of 300,000 Customers
• (Defense – Military – Security) Lauren C. Williams, Defense One. Handheld tactical radios are officially entering the chat for this year’s Project Convergence, the Army’s annual large-scale effort to try out new tech. Small Radios On Armored Vehicles Will Be a Big Step Toward the Army’s Networked Future
• (Defense – Military – Security) Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One. A counterdrone weapon that the Pentagon recently said it would send to Ukraine is a compact combination of three systems already used by the U.S. Army: a jammer, an infrared camera, and a rocket launcher, executives said. Here Is the Counterdrone Kit the US Is Sending Ukraine
• (Defense – Military – Security)  Jen Judson, Defense News. U.S. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth has tasked Army Materiel Command to take the lead in a comprehensive effort to bolster logistics and sustainment in the Indo-Pacific region, Gen. Edward Daly, the command’s leader, told Defense News in an interview at the Association of the U.S. Army’s annual exhibition. US Army Materiel Command tasked to ramp up joint logistics in Pacific
• (Defense – Military – Security)  Jen Judson, Defense News. The U.S. Army is stepping up its relationship-building efforts in the Pacific region in a bid to counter China’s geopolitical influence. ‘We don’t have a NATO here’: How the US Army plans to counter China
• (Defense – Military – Security) Joe Gould, Jen Judson and Stephen Losey, Defense News. For years, the war on terror dominated displays at the massive Association of the U.S. Army trade show with heavily armored vehicles and ways to protect soldiers from makeshift explosives. But this week, Ukraine’s fight to repel Russia’s invasion highlights new stars of the battlefield, such as small drones or in-demand artillery. Guns of Ukraine draw eyes at Washington arms fair
• (Defense – Military – Security) Jen Judson, Defense News. The U.S. Army and BAE Systems are working together to identify ways to accelerate production of the new Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle, which would let the service more quickly replace aging M113 armored troop carriers. US Army, BAE aim to accelerate armored vehicle production
• (Defense – Military – Security) Jen Judson, Defense News.  The U.S. Army’s counter-drone office is recommending three specific companies, should the service choose to invest in defense against UAVs as a service, according to a Sept. 16 memo obtained by Defense News. Army counter-drone office recommends 3 teams to protect installations
• (Defense – Military – Security) Megan Eckstein, Defense News. For the defense industry, creating hybrid and fully electric vehicles for the U.S. Army isn’t about being eco-friendly: it’s about making soldiers more lethal and survivable. Here’s what industry is offering to meet Army’s electric vehicle needs
• (Defense – Military – Security) Vivienne Machi, Defense News. The Czech Republic is in line to get main battle tanks and armored recovery vehicles from Germany’s Rheinmetall as part of a swap to replace Prague’s own equipment given to Ukraine. Czech army to get Leopard tanks under Berlin-Prague arms swap
• (Defense – Military – Security) Jen Judson, Defense News. The U.S. Army plans to conduct two additional tests of its hypersonic missile before fielding it to the first unit by the end of fiscal 2023 – US Army plans two more tests of hypersonic missile ahead of fielding
• (Health & Technological Innovation) Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics.  Google Health has announced a partnership with California-based Desert Oasis Healthcare (DOHC), part of the Heritage Provider Network, to pilot Care Studio. Google Partnership to Pilot New Offering in Outpatient Care Setting
• (Migrations) IOM. Some 4.3 million refugees and migrants from Venezuela face challenges accessing food, housing, and stable employment, a recent assessment concludes.  Three-Quarters of Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela Struggle to Access Basic Services in Latin America and the Caribbean
• (Nuclear Energy) World Nuclear News. A strategic partnership of Cameco Corporation and Brookfield Renewable Partners is to acquire Westinghouse Electric Company for a total enterprise value of approximately USD8 billion. Cameco and Brookfield Renewable join forces to acquire Westinghouse : Corporate
• (Nuclear Energy) World Nuclear News. The UK’s Nuclear Decommissioning Authority has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Cwmni Egino to support their development of a new small scale nuclear project at Trawsfynydd in North Wales. Cwmni Egino and NDA sign MoU for new nuclear in North Wales : New Nuclear
• (Nuclear Energy) World Nuclear News. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Emergency Preparedness Review (EPREV) noted that Slovenia had made “significant progress in developing and revising emergency arrangements” since the initial EPREV mission five years ago. IAEA review praises Slovenia progress on emergency preparedness : Regulation & Safety
• (Perspectives) Dag Hammarskjold Foundation, United Nations MPTF Office. More than ever, global challenges require a renewed and effective multilateral response. While many
  crises can be turned around, they cannot be solved by isolated or unilateral efforts. Thus, the need for global investment represents both a response to existential risk and an opportunity for shared prosperity. For the second year in a row, the world is no longer making progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In 2020, lockdowns imposed to limit the spread of COVID-19 pushed 166 countries into recession. At the same time, the global response to the pandemic depleted fiscal space in many countries, exacerbated by surging
  inflationary pressures and the conflict in Ukraine, which has set off additional shocks in terms of rising global commodity prices. As a result, an estimated 70 million additional people are living in extreme poverty compared to pre-pandemic levels. Joint responsabilities in a world in disarray

WORLDS

• (Australia) Albert Palazzo, The Strategist. How a nation prepares for war is nearly as important as how it wages war. It is in peacetime that a military identifies and acquires the weapons with which it will fight, determines their optimal use, perfects doctrine, and trains its force. Once war comes it is largely too late to make major adjustments—a military fights with what it has, and hopes that its doctrine and training are appropriate, and that there is scope to make adjustments where needed. Infantry fighting vehicle decision will determine Australia’s way of war
• (Central Asia) Sergei Gretsky, The Jamestown Foundation. Central Asia took its first steps toward regional integration soon after independence in the region in 1991. Yet, for several reasons, this integration failed. Even so, with the change in leadership in Uzbekistan in 2016, attempts to improve regional cooperation have been revived, this time through the mechanism of annual consultative meetings of Central Asian leaders. The fourth such meeting took place in Kyrgyzstan at the end of July 2022. Central Asia Comes Together
• (China) Atlantic Council. China is a global economic powerhouse, but its system remains opaque. With distress in the property sector, Beijing’s crackdown on technology companies, and the draconian zero-Covid policy being perpetuated through 2022, questions are mounting about Beijing’s economic trajectory. Both policymakers and businesses around the world are assessing how to respond and position themselves. Leaders need a shared language to describe China’s economic system that can be trusted by all sides for its accuracy and objectivity. This is the goal of the China Pathfinder Project. China Pathfinder: 2022 annual scorecard
• (China – Sahel) Samir Bhattacharya, Vivekananda International Foundation. On November 29–30, 2021, the Eighth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), under the theme “Deepen China-Africa Partnership and Promote Sustainable Development to Build a China-Africa Community with a Shared Future in the New Era,” took place in Dakar, Senegal. During the meeting, Senegalese Foreign Minister Assata Tall Sall encouraged China to participate in the Sahel conflict settlement process. As with Russia, if China manages to control the current intensity of conflicts in the region, it will surely raise China’s peace and security game in the Sahel to a new level. China’s Great Game in the Sahel
• (Europe) Lukas Harth, Florian Kriener, Jonas Wolff, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The EU’s emerging response to foreign interference, as it is currently debated in the EU Parliament, contains striking similarities to arguments put forth by some governments around the world seeking to justify harsh restrictions on foreign funding and “foreign agents.” This risks producing serious ramifications for civic spaces and international civil society support—both within and beyond the EU. Responding to Foreign Interference in the EU: Beware of Unintended Consequences
• (Georgia) Veronika Pfeilschifter, ZOIS. Since the mid-2000s, a new generation of left-wing intellectuals, activists, organisers, workers, and artists has been emerging in many post-Soviet states, among them Georgia. These leftists’ ideological spectrum covers a variety of ideational elements, from Marxism-Leninism via social democracy to anti-capitalist green ideas and feminist gender democracy. Politically marginalised, few in number, and either fractured or loosely organised, these groups and individuals have been questioning, intervening into, or opposing the mechanisms of hegemonic market liberalisation and the reproduction of social inequalities. Exploring the Diversity of Georgia’s Post-Soviet Left
• (Germany – France) Sebastian Sprenger, Defense News. German defense leaders have vowed to coordinate closely with France on a beefed-up capability for maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare, following reports that Berlin’s acquisition of American-made Boeing P-8 Poseidon aircraft would nix the bilateral project. Germany awaits France’s signal on new sub-hunting planes
• (Iran) Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress protests and possibly also to conduct a ground operation into Iraqi Kurdistan. Iran Crisis Update, October 11
• (Japan) Masayuki Morikawa, RIETI. Although the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been declining over time, many firms continue to adopt a work-from-home policy. This column reports on a new survey of Japanese firms in the fourth quarter of 2021. It finds that the ratio of firms that allow working from home decreased substantially compared to the spring of 2020, along with the intensity of working from home. Most firms believed workers were less productive when working remotely and thus were likely to limit it once the pandemic ended. If employees have a strong desire to work remotely, there may be serious conflicts after the pandemic. Productivity, amenity value, and the future of remote work
• (Japan) Hironori Sasada and Tadashi Iwami, East Asia Forum. Japan’s upper house election in July 2022 caught international attention when former prime minister Shinzo Abe was shot during the campaign. The gunman, Tetsuya Yamagami, was motivated by a perennial grudge against the Unification Church for bankrupting his family. Abe’s death shifts balance of power within LDP
• (Latvia) Una Bergmane, Foreign Policy Research Institute. On Oct. 1, Latvia elected its 14th parliament since 1922. The winner of the elections is the center-right New Unity (Jaunā Vienotība), the party of the current Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš and current Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs. This means that Latvian foreign policy will remain deeply pro-European and transatlantic. Latvia will continue to be a strong critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime and a strong supporter of Ukraine.  New Unity’s New Partners: Coalition Building After Latvia’s 2022 Elections
• (North Korea) David Maxwell, FDD. Do not fear North Korea’s provocations. They are a standard expression of leader Kim Jong Un’s three-pronged strategy, which is built on political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and advanced warfighting preparation – North Korea’s Provocations: Time For An Asymmetric Approach
• (Pacific) Henrietta McNeill, East Asia Forum. The Pacific’s vast oceans, unique geography and limited law enforcement resources make it difficult to monitor porous borders for transnational crime. The region is host to an increasing volume of illicit drug, wildlife, firearm and human trafficking, amongst other transnational cyber, financial and environmental criminal activity. Building knowledge about human trafficking in the Pacific
• (Russia) Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. On October 7, celebrations in Russia for President Vladimir Putin’s 70^th birthday were rather muted and distinctly half-hearted. For the big day, Putin opted to stage an informal gathering of six leaders from post-Soviet states—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan—in St. Petersburg. The formal meeting of the barely functional Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is scheduled next week in the Kazakhstani capital of Astana (recently renamed back from Nur-Sultan). The Russian president described the content-free gathering as a “good tradition,” perhaps reflecting on his 50^th birthday at the CIS summit in Chisinau, Moldova, when, at the time, his reform agenda inspired hope for meaningful cooperation (Interfax, October 7). Presently, Putin’s wishes are mostly for charting backroads to circumvent Western sanctions, and he has tried his best to eliminate tensions with reform-minded Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has preferred to comply with the West’s sanctions regime (Kommersant, October 6). No Escape for Putin From His Lonely and Tight Corner
• (Russia) Stephen Sestanovich, Council on Foreign Relations. The evolving views of hard-liners within Russia’s paramilitary, media, and national security establishments offer important clues as to the direction Putin will take the war in Ukraine. Who Are Russia’s War Hawks, and Do They Matter?
• (Russia – Central Asia) Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. More than half of the estimated 700,000 Russians who have fled since Russian President Vladimir Putin declared partial mobilization on September 21 have mainly gone to four countries in Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan—among the relatively few places Russians can still enter freely without visas (Forbes.ru, October 4). Most of these arrivals plan to move on to other countries—and indeed, many already have—or ultimately return to Russia after Putin leaves the scene. But, at the moment, both those in transit and those who stay for a longer period are creating problems for national citizens and governments, exacerbating tensions between the titular nations and ethnic Russians in each state and between the governments of these countries and the Russian Federation. Influx of Russians Fleeing Mobilization Increasingly Alienating Central Asians
• (Russia – Transnistria) Ben Dubow, Center for European Policy Analysis. During the opening phases of Russia’s most recent invasion of Ukraine, the irredentist dreams of Russian leadership ran wild.  Russia’s Imperial Dream Fades in Transnistria
• (Russia – Ukraine) Harsh V. Pant, Observer Research Foundation. Leaders often start wars in hubris, thinking that they would shape the course of the conflict. But it is the fog of war that, more often than not, ends up becoming the more significant determinant. Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing a similar predicament. Despite the reality on the ground, he continues to insist that the situation will soon be under control. Last week, he said he expected the situation to “stabilise” in Ukrainian regions annexed by the Kremlin despite his forces suffering military setbacks and losing several key towns to Kyiv. This was followed by heavy bombing in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia — the capital of one of the regions annexed by Russia – and then the raining of missiles across the vast Ukrainian territory from Kyiv and Lviv to Kharkiv and Odessa. Ukraine Conflict: Putin’s desperation and cracks within Russia are beginning to show
• (Russia – Ukraine) World Nuclear News. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi has held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The talks were arranged as part of efforts to establish a safety and security zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. IAEA’s Grossi holds talks with Russia’s President Putin : Regulation & Safety
• (Russia – Ukraine) Karolina Hird, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row on October 11. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 11
• (South-East Asia) Anindya Dutta, IOM. Human mobility remains a defining feature of today’s world, driven by an array of motivations and taking place through both regular and irregular channels, both voluntarily and involuntarily. Globally, we are increasingly witnessing the impact of climate change and environmental degradation on human mobility trends. Empowering Migrants during Crises: Climate Action in South-East
• (South Korea) Joe Gould, Defense News.  South Korea’s defense export sales have already hit $15 billion this year, surpassing a record $7.25 billion last year, and could reach $20 billion by year’s end if potential deals with Australia, Malaysia, Norway and Saudi Arabia break in Seoul’s direction. South Korea’s status as rising defense player on display at AUSA
• (UK) David Wells, The Interpreter. Few UK leaders have faced a first month in power quite like Prime Minister Liz Truss. Liz Truss and foreign policy: expect the unexpected
• (USA) Colin P. Clarke, Foreign Policy Research Institute. One of the most striking sights on January 6, 2021, was that of a far-right extremist carrying a large Confederate flag through the halls of Congress. The American Civil War had ended over 150 years before, but the briefest illumination of a long-dead lost cause was deeply disquieting. Mainstreaming Extremism: The Legacy of Far-Right Violence from the Past to the Present
• (USA) Bradley Bowman, Richard G. Moore, FDD. North Korea is again launching missiles, Iran continues inching towards a nuclear weapons capability, Russia is escalating its aggression in Ukraine, and China is sprinting to field a military capable of invading Taiwan and defeating any effort by Washington to intervene. Considering these extraordinary threats, what kind of Air Force does the United States have — and what kind of Air Force does it need? Building the Air Force the U.S. Needs
• (USA) Caroline Freund, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Supply chain disruptions and shipping delays have often been blamed for the rise in US inflation since COVID-19 hit. For instance, a recent note from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco concluded that supply factors account for around half of the inflation run up in the US economy, dwarfing demand factors. For imported goods, however, demand is equally if not more responsible. Prices have risen (blue line) but import quantities have also grown faster than before the pandemic (black line), implying strangled supply chains are not the sole driver of US inflation. Surging demand for imports has been a major driver of US inflation since the pandemic hit
• (USA) Xavier de Souza Briggs and Richard M. McGahey, Brookings. On May 25, 2020, four Minneapolis police officers fatally injured George Floyd, a Black man, while he was under their custody—a searing, caught-on-camera killing that sparked the largest mass protests in American history. While the protests ostensibly focused on police killings of Black people, they also called out the systemic racism that fuels many other manifestations of racial inequality. In Minnesota state court, a jury found former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin guilty of murder, and in a federal trial, the other three officers were found guilty of violating Floyd’s civil rights. But beyond justice for George Floyd, how much progress have we made in addressing racial inequality in the U.S.? Keeping promises while keeping score: Gauging the impacts of policy proposals on racial equity
• (USA) Chun-Chao Lin, Atlantic Council. The White House’s decision on Friday to impose more restrictions on selling semiconductors and chip-making equipment to China—a move designed to slow Beijing’s ability to upgrade its economy and military—was telling. It shows once again how the United States is under increasing pressure to stay ahead of China’s efforts to expand its semiconductor industry and reduce reliance on Taiwan as the sole supplier of advanced electronics essential to US military and commercial needs. The Biden administration’s new export controls come on the heels of Congress approving billions of dollars to support cutting-edge chips manufacturing. However, money alone will not guarantee the success of the US-based semiconductor industry. US firms should also glean critical lessons from successful incumbents in allied and partner countries like South Korea and Taiwan. Taiwan shows how winning the semiconductor race takes more than money
• (USA – China) Manoj Joshi, ORF. Just over a week before the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which is likely to endorse President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented third term as its general secretary, the US has fired a shot across the Chinese bow. US rules aim to derail China’s chip industry
• (USA – China) Gregory C. Allen, CSIS. On October 7, 2022, the Biden administration announced a new export controls policy on artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor technologies to China. These new controls—a genuine landmark in U.S.-China relations—provide the complete picture after a partial disclosure in early September generated confusion. For weeks the Biden administration has been receiving criticism in many quarters for a new round of semiconductor export control restrictions, first disclosed on September 1. The restrictions block leading U.S. AI computer chip designers, such as Nvidia and AMD, from selling their high-end chips for AI and supercomputing to China. Choking off China’s Access to the Future of AI
• (USA – Europe) Alexandra Kelley, Defense One. President Joe Biden unveiled a new executive order on Friday that implements the data privacy framework between the U.S. and European Union, focusing on facilitating transatlantic data flows to benefit international commerce as well as fortifying civil rights protections.  New US-EU Data-Privacy Rules Limit Surveillance
• (USA – India) Brahma Chellaney, Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. The strategic partnership between the United States and India is pivotal to maintaining the balance of power in the vast Indo-Pacific region and counterbalancing China’s hegemonic ambitions. The US is India’s second-largest trading partner, and deepening the ties between the two countries is one of the rare bipartisan foreign policies that exists in Washington today. The US–India partnership is too important to lose