Geostrategic Diary – June 1, 2022 p.m.

First published in The Science of Where Magazine

FOCUS

• June 1, 2022. By Trisha Ray, ORF. On 24 May 2022, the four leaders of the Quad—a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States (US)—met in Tokyo, reaffirming their commitment to a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific, “Individually and together, we will respond to the challenges of our time, ensuring that the region remains inclusive, open, and governed by universal rules and norms”. Central to this vision are technology standards, and the 2022 Quad Joint Leaders Statement builds on the commitments made at the 2021 summit—the leaders launched The Common Statement of Principles on Critical Technology Supply Chains as well as a new, as-yet-mysterious body called the International Standards Cooperation Network (ISCN). The Quad statement epitomises the fact that technology standards are not simply technical, but laden with values, politics, and power. The Quad and the wicked problem of tech standards

THINK TANKS & GLOBAL NEWS

DIGITAL & TECH

• June 1, 2022. By Mohnish Kedia, ORF. You walk across a camera mounted on the traffic pole. The long white camera spots you, clicks your picture, and then sends it to a facial recognition system placed at the police station. The software breaks down your face geometry, locates all facial features, matches it with a database to identify you, and sends information to the police. The police then trace you and engage with you. All of this happens in a short span of 15 minutes. Welcome to the world of public security and surveillance using Facial Recognition Technology (FRT). Appropriateness or consequence: Challenges to regulating facial regulation technology

PERSPECTIVES

• June 1, 2022. By Reuters. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday he was hopeful of easing the food crisis prompted by the war in Ukraine, but cautioned that any agreement to unblock shipments of commodities such as grain was still some way off. U.N. chief sees progress over food crisis, but deal still some way off

AROUND THE WORLD

Bhutan – China – India

• June 1, 2022. By Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, ORF. Bhutan has historically maintained a neutral relationship with China, to its north, and a more special relationship with India, whose states border its west, east, and south. Over the past two decades, however, many factors are forcing Bhutan to settle its longstanding territorial disputes with China and diversify its relations. These factors include its own changing economy and transition from an absolute monarchy to a democracy, a generational shift and their exposure to the internet, and geopolitical events such as China’s economic and military rise. This paper analyses these shifts and ponders their implications for Bhutan’s foreign policy, overall, and specifically its relations with China and India. The Changing Contours of Bhutan’s Foreign Policy and the Implications for China and India

Black Sea – South Caucasus

• June 1, 2022. by RUSI. Natia Seskuria, Director of the Regional Institute of Security Studies in Tbilisi and RUSI Associate Fellow, and Richard Giragosian, Director of the Regional Studies Centre in Yerevan, discuss with Dr Neil Melvin, Director, RUSI International Security Studies, the implications for the wider Black Sea security space, and trace developments in the region’s protracted conflicts. Episode 27: The South Caucasus and Black Sea Security

Gaza Strip

• June 1, 2022. By Rasha Abou Jalal, Al-Monitor. The Finance Ministry of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip imposed a 16.5% tax on West Bank products entering Gaza as of May 22. The tax was imposed on 24 products, including bottled mineral water, soft drinks and entertainment products. Hamas imposes new taxes on products imported from West Bank

Germany

• June 1, 2022. By Reuters. Germany’s largest residential landlord Vonovia will increase rents if high inflation rates persist, its chief executive officer said, as consumer prices in Europe’s biggest economy have reached the highest level in nearly half a century. Large landlords in Germany consider rent increases as inflation soars

India – China

• June 1, 2022. By Raj Gupta, VIF. A standoff between India and China that started in May 2020, eventually leading up to the deadly clashes on June 15, saw 20 and 4 (though some reports put PLA’s toll at 38-40 killed) soldiers reported dead by India and China respectively. Although disputes and standoffs have occurred between the two countries in recent years such as the Daulat Beg Oldi incident in 2013, Chumar standoff in 2014 and the Doklam standoff in 2017, none have had as much of a sustained impact on the Sino-Indian relationship as the Galwan incident. Much of it can be attributed to the fact that it is the first incident leading to death of soldiers since the Tulung La incident in 1975. Galwan: A Centrepiece of CPC’s Military Propaganda

Iran 

• June 1, 2022. By Trevor Filseth, The National Interest. Protests in Iran continued to grow on Tuesday after the death toll from a collapsed residential building in Abadan, a large city in Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan region, rose to thirty-four, with dozens more survivors thought to be trapped beneath the rubble. Protests Grow in Iran as Building Collapse Death Toll Rises

Iran – Afghanistan

• June 1, 2022. By IRNA. North Khorasan, Iran’s northeasternmost province, has plans with Afghanistan to establish a joint commerce chamber, a trade official in the province said. Iran’s North Khorasan province, Afghanistan to create joint commerce chamber

Iran – Pakistan

• June 1, 2022. By IRNA. Iranian and Pakistani officials signed an agreement on expansion of cooperation at the 9th Joint Border Trade Committee Session in this southeastern Iranian city. Iran, Pakistan sign agreement on border trade cooperation

Iraq

• June 1, 2022. By Kurdistan 24. The Iraqi Army launched a new operation to pursue “terrorists” in the country’s western desert border regions on Wednesday.  Iraqi forces launch new counterterrorism operation
• June 1, 2022. By  Al-Monitor. Iraq’s parliament passed a bill on May 26 criminalizing normalization and any cooperation or activities involved with Israel. Iraq’s parliament passes anti-normalization law
• June 1, 2022. By Salam Zidane, Al-Monitor. On May 8, the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture warned that 90 percent of Iraqi agricultural land has been desertified or is at risk of desertification in the near future, due to climate change and water disputes with Iran and Turkey. Climate crisis worsens desertification in Iraq

Iraqi Kurdistan

• June 1, 2022. By Kurdistan 24. The Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) Coordinator for International Advocacy, Dr. Dindar Zebari, officially announced the KRG’s Regional Plan for Human Rights in a press conference on Tuesday. KRG officially announces Regional Plan for Human Rights
• June 1, 2022. By Kurdistan 24. Iraq’s National Security Advisor Qasim Al-Araji chaired a meeting on the environmental challenges the country is facing with various government agencies in Baghdad on Tuesday, according to a statement. Iraqi national security agency discusses ‘environmental catastrophe’ facing country
• June 1, 2022. By Kurdistan 24. Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani stressed the importance of cooperation between Kurdish parties for defending the “national achievements” on the 47th anniversary of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan’s (PUK) foundation on Wednesday.  PM Barzani emphasizes importance of cooperation among Kurdish parties on PUK’s 47th anniversary

Israel

• June 1, 2022. By Middle East Eye. Israel’s justice minister is in talks to join a government with former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a report in the Israeli newspaper Ynet. Israeli justice minister in talks to join Netanyahu-led government, says report

Jordan – Syria

• June 1, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Jordanian authorities have said they are thwarting the smuggling of weapons and ammunition on its northern border with Syria, after repeatedly denouncing the smuggling of narcotics from Syria as well. After Drugs, Jordan Faces Arms Smuggling Coming from Syria

Libya

• June 1, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Ministry of Oil and Gas has stressed the need to keep the oil sector away from political conflicts, regional and private interests, urging for rejecting foreign interference. Oil Ministry stresses need to keep sector away from political conflicts
• June 1, 2022. By The Libya Observer. Minister of Interior, Khaled Mazen, says the Government of National Unity (GNU) supports any regional or international efforts to stop the flow of irregular migrants to Europe, provided that it is not at the expense of Libya. Mazen: Stemming immigration flows must not be at the expense of Libya
• June 1, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Libyan Iron and Steel Company, Mohammed Al-Faqih, has discussed with the German Ambassador to Libya, Michael Unmacht, opportunities for cooperation with German companies working in this field.  Libya reviews cooperation in the field of iron and steel with Germany, Italy
• June 1, 2022. By Elia Preto Martini, Al-Monitor. Like most of its North African peers, Libya has been grappling with rising wheat costs  following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Combined with the April blockade of a number of oil plants, the country is particularly vulnerable and unable to benefit from the global rise in oil prices. Libya grapples with mounting food costs, diminishing oil revenues

Poland – Ukraine

• June 1, 2022. By Reuters. Poland stands to get an economic boost from agreements to help Ukraine, the prime minister said on Wednesday, as he opened temporary housing funded and built by Warsaw in a town that was largely destroyed during the war with Russia. Poland to become ‘economic hub’ for Ukraine, says PM

Russia – Ukraine

• June 1, 2022. By Max Hunder, Reuters. Standing amid the charred remains of a roadside hotel on a major highway near Kyiv, Isa Akayev explained what drove him to build his Muslim volunteer unit and fight for Ukraine. Ukraine’s Muslim Crimea battalion yearns for lost homeland
• June 1, 2022. By Reuters. The United States will provide advanced rocket systems to Ukraine to use in defense against Russian forces but not for strikes inside Russia, a White House official said on Wednesday as Washington seeks to contain escalation of the conflict. U.S. rocket systems for Ukraine not meant to strike Russia -White House official
• June 1, 2022. By Pavel Polityuk and Max Hunder, Reuters. Russian forces on Wednesday pressed closer to the centre of an industrial city in a drive to grab a swathe of eastern Ukraine, while the United States said it would supply advanced rockets to Kyiv to help force Moscow to negotiate an end to the war. Russian forces advance in factory city, U.S. to send precision rockets to Ukraine

Syria

• June 1, 2022. By Nur Ayoubi, Middle East Eye. A brutal assault on an elderly Syrian woman by a Turkish man in Gaziantep has stirred outrage online and reignited discussion over the treatment of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Brutal attack on elderly Syrian refugee in Turkey sparks outrage online
• June 1, 2022. By Selçuk Aydın, Middle East Eye. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement of a fresh military campaign against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria has reignited debate over the need for safe zones. The new operation seeks to connect two areas already under Turkish control, aiming to clear out security threats and widen the available space for resettling Syrian refugees. Syria war: Turkey’s new border offensive is a deliberate test of the West’s support
• June 1, 2022. By Wladimir van Wilgenburg, Kurdistan 24.  The former Chair of the official US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), Nadine Maenza, said she met with the Kurdish National Council (KNC) leadership in northeast Syria on Tuesday.  Former US religious freedom chair meets with Syrian Kurdish KNC opposition leadership
• June 1, 2022. By Laurie Mylroie, Kurdistan 24. For the second time in as many weeks, State Department Spokesperson Ned Price warned Ankara against a cross-border attack into Syria, including the area held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). US warns Turkey again about attacking northern Syria
• June 1, 2022. By  Wladimir van Wilgenburg, Kurdistan 24. A Turkish suicide drone targeted a gynecologist’s clinic in the city of Tal Rifaat in Syria’s Aleppo province on Wednesday morning, the Syria-based Rojava Information Centre (RIC) reported. Clinic in Syria’s Tal Rifaat ‘badly damaged’ by Turkish drone strike
• June 1, 2022. By SOHR. Aleppo province: SOHR sources have reported seeing a Russian armoured vehicle touring areas in Kafr Naseh and Kafrnaya areas nearby Tel Rifaat to the north of Aleppo city, where Kurdish and regime forces are deployed. Following Erdogan statements about “clearing” Tel Rifaat and Manbij | Russian armoured vehicle tour areas nearby Tel Rifaat
• June 1, 2022. By SOHR. Aleppo province: SOHR activists have reported an attack on a civil car carrying a family from Al-Bab area. The attack, which left a child injured, took place in Al-Halawanji village in areas under the control of Turkish-backed factions in the north-eastern countryside of Aleppo, as the car was targeted by military forces deployed in areas controlled by “Manbij Military Council Forces.”. Aleppo | Child injured in attack on car in village controlled by Turkish-backed factions in north-eastern Aleppo
• June 1, 2022. By SOHR. SOHR activists have reported the explosion of an unexploded projectile in the SDF-controlled town of Al-Shuhayl in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor in east Euphrates region. Eight children sustained various injuries due to the explosion, and they were taken to the hospital. Old ordnance | Explosion injures eight children in eastern Deir Ezzor
• June 1, 2022. By SOHR. SOHR sources have reported a new round of Turkish bombardment on SDF-controlled areas, where artillery shells hit positions in the area of the cement company in west Tel Abyad countryside and other positions in Awn Al-Dadat area in Manbij countryside in north-eastern Aleppo and the surrounding areas of Lafarge company in Ain Al-Arab countryside (Kobani). No casualties have been reported so far, while military forces in Ain Al-Arab have been put on high alert. It is worth noting that the targeted area hosted a former military base of the International Coalition. Renewed bombardment | Turkish forces bombard surrounding areas of former Coalition base in Ain Al-Arab (Kobani)
• June 1, 2022. By SOHR. SOHR sources in the “de-escalation zone” have reported exchange of rocket fire between regime forces and their proxy militias on one hand, and opposition factions and jihadist groups on the other on the frontlines of Al-Mashari’ in Sahl Al-Ghab in the north-western countryside of Hama and Kabana frontline in Jabal Al-Akrad in the northern countryside of Latakia. “De-escalation zone” | Regime forces and opposition factions trade fire on frontlines in Aleppo, Latakia, Idlib and Hama
• June 1, 2022. By SOHR. Al-Raqqah province: SOHR sources have reported that Turkish forces and their proxy factions fired several rockets this morning, targeting positions in the SDF-backed villages of Abu Naytoula and Kayjaqran in Ain Issa countryside in the northern countryside of Al-Raqqah province. However, no casualties have been reported. Ongoing escalation | Turkish forces shell positions in SDF-held areas in Ain Issa countryside in northern Al-Raqqah
• June 1, 2022. By SOHR. Aleppo province: SOHR sources have reported that a drone affiliated to Turkish forces and their proxy factions targeted, this morning, a clinic in Tel Rifaat city which is controlled by Kurdish and regime forces and hosts a Russian base. The attack, which is the third of its kind in Tel Rifaat in two weeks, has left material damage only. Third attack in two weeks | Drone affiliated to Turkish forces and their proxies bombard an area hosting Russian base in northern Aleppo
• June 1, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. On Monday, the Hermon Center for Studies released a new study explaining the mechanism and reasons leading to the emergence of new warlords, who have reached the top echelons of the Syrian regime’s economic centers. The warlords have obliterated obstacles in their path at the expense of old figures, who have retreated from the scene for reasons related to economic sanctions and political positions since the beginning of the Syrian revolution in 2011. Syria: How Warlords Emerged
• June 1, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Secretary of the Syrian Opposition Coalition’s (SOC) political committee, Abdul Majeed Barakat, called on the United Nations to reconsider the decision to reduce potable water supplies to the Rukban refugee camp near the Jordanian border. He also called for working effectively to ensure a dignified life for thousands of households in the Rukban camp, which has been under tightened blockade by the Assad regime forces. SOC Calls on UN to Reconsider Decision to Reduce Water Supplies to Rukban Refugee Camp
• June 1, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Turkish, Syrian, and Arab activists and politicians have launched a social media campaign in connection with the kicking of a 70-year-old Syrian woman in the southern Turkish state of Gaziantep. Large Solidarity Campaign with Syrian Woman Kicked by Turkish Man
• June 1, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. A confidential source revealed to Tareek that a meeting was held by the SDF militia with leaders of the regime forces in the past few days. The meeting aims to unify work and coordination between the two sides to face an expected military attack by Turkish forces on their areas of control in the Aleppo countryside.  PYD Holds Meeting with Regime to Counter Turkish Moves North of Aleppo
• June 1, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The eighth round of the Syrian Constitutional Committee meetings, chaired by the United Nations Special Representative for Syria, Geir Pedersen, kicked off on Monday in Geneva, Switzerland. 8th Round of Syrian Constitutional Talks Kick off in Geneva

Syria – Iran

• June 1, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Syria and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on environmental protection, nature conservation and combating and limiting the phenomenon of sand and dust storms. Syria, Iran Sign Memorandum of Understanding on Environmental Protection

Syria – Iraq

• June 1, 2022. By Middle East Eye. Fifty Iraqi fighters from the Islamic State (IS) group detained by Kurdish-led forces in northeast Syria have been returned home to face legal action, security services said on Wednesday. Syria: 50 detained Islamic State fighters returned to Iraq

Taiwan

• June 1, 2022. By  Ann Wang and Fabian Hamacher, Reuters. From tour guides to tattoo artists, some in Taiwan are taking shooting lessons for the first time in their lives as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ratchets up anxiety at the prospect of giant neighbour China making a similar move on the democratic island. More seek gun training in Taiwan as Ukraine war drives home China threat

UK – Ukraine

• June 1, 2022. By Tim Willasey-Wilsey CMG, RUSI. The Duke of Wellington famously said after Waterloo that ‘Nothing except a battle lost can be half so melancholy as a battle won’. For an intelligence service, the quotation could be altered to ‘Nothing except false intelligence can be half so disastrous as good intelligence ignored’. The Bank of England and Ukraine: An Apocalyptic Warning

USA – China – Indo Pacific

• June 1, 2022. By Patrick McLaren, The National Interest. The Asia-Pacific has become one of the most prominent focal points for both the West and China. Overwhelmingly, the central themes of engagement in the region relate to trade and development, security cooperation, and global governance. It is within this context that both the West and China each seek to strengthen their respective ties to, and influence within, the region in furtherance of their respective national interests. The U.S.-China Competition for the Indo-Pacific Is Just Beginning

USA – Iran

• June 1, 2022. By Majid Rafizadeh, The National Interest. Biden’s new sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards are arguably among the strongest indicators so far that the administration intends to maintain or expand upon all existing pressure. Why Biden Can’t Ease Up on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards

West Bank

• June 1, 2022. By Ahmad Melhem, Al-Monitor. In the two days that followed the controversial flag march organized by Israeli far-right settlers in East Jerusalem on May 29, several shootings against the Israeli army and settlers were reported in the West Bank. Twelve shooting operations were reported, while 35 explosive devices were thrown at Israeli military checkpoints and posts across the West Bank, with the most incidents recorded in Jenin and Nablus. Palestinian Islamic Jihad ramps up capabilities in West Bank

Yemen

• June 1, 2022. by Al-Monitor. A fragile UN-brokered truce between the Yemeni government and Huthi rebels hung in the balance Wednesday as talks on renewing it hit trouble, threatening the humanitarian gains of the past two months. Yemen truce hangs in balance as extension talks falter

DEFENSE – MILITARY – SPACE

• June 1, 2022. By Trevor Filseth, The National Interest. Defense officials from China and the United States have made progress in arranging a bilateral meeting in Singapore, according to Bloomberg—suggesting that the Biden administration has prioritized open discussions over concerns of diplomatic protocol, which have obstructed high-level defense meetings in the past. U.S. Defense Secretary Edges Closer to Meeting With Chinese Counterpart
• June 1, 2022. By IRNA. Head of Iranian Space Agency (ISA) said that Iran was going to have a more active participation in international meetings on space, as the meeting of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) kicked off on Wednesday. Iran to have bolder contribution to int’l space regulation
• June 1, 2022. By Sidharth Kaushal, RUSI. Constraints on Russia’s shipbuilding industry and its finances mean it is increasingly likely that its surface navy will evolve into a green water fleet based around frigates and corvettes. The Death of Gorshkov’s Navy: The Future of the Russian Surface Fleet
• June 1, 2022. By Reuters. Finland and Sweden said on Wednesday the Nordic countries will continue their dialogue with Turkey over Ankara’s objections to their bids for membership of the NATO military alliance. Finland and Sweden to continue NATO talks with Turkey
• June 1, 2022. By Nikolaj Skydsgaard, Reuters. Danes vote on Wednesday to decide whether to join the European Union’s defence policy, potentially becoming the final hold-out in the bloc to sign up as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forces countries to radically reassess their security. Denmark votes on closer EU defence ties on Russia concerns
• June 1, 2022. By Raj Shukla, ORF. The Ukraine crisis is, indeed, a watershed of many sorts, with seismic consequences for the international order and systemic implications for national security, offering many military lessons for the future. The military lessons from the Ukraine conflict
• June 1, 2022. By Naval News. Navantia conducted the initial sea trials of the first S-80 class submarine, Isaac Peral (S-81), in the Bay of Cartagena on May 27, 2022. Navantia completes initial sea trials of Isaac Peral (S-81) Submarine
• June 1, 2022. By Naval News. The Indian Ministry of Defence signed a contract with Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) on May 31, 2022, for the supply of ASTRA MK -I Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Air to Air Missile (AAM) and associated equipment for the Indian Air Force and Indian Navy. Bharat Dynamics to provide ASTRA MK-I Air-to-Air missile to Indian Navy
• June 1, 2022. By Naval News. Lloyd’s Register (LR) has awarded Approval in Principle (AiP) to Vard Marine Inc., a Fincantieri company, for its Vard 7 125 Next-Generation Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV). Lloyd’s Register Approves VARD Marine for Next-Gen OPV
• June 1, 2022. By Andrew Eversden, Breaking Defense. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has provided US Army leaders several lessons in the future of warfare, from how to command troops to safeguarding soldiers against drones and insecure communications, according to the service’s top civilian. US Army secretary: 5 lessons from the Ukraine conflict
• June 1, 2022. By Lauren C. Williams, Defense One. The Defense Department has many predicaments to untangle when it comes to adopting emerging, and existing, technologies from workforce to acquisition. But when it comes to artificial intelligence, cultural and budget issues are the largest obstacles to widespread implementation, officials say. ‘Cultural Artifacts’ Are Keeping DOD From Going Big on AI
• June 1, 2022. By  Lolita C. Baldor, The Associated Press, Defense News. The Biden administration is expected to announce it will send Ukraine a small number of high-tech, medium-range rocket systems, a critical weapon that Ukrainian leaders have been begging for as they struggle to stall Russian progress in the Donbas region, U.S. officials said Tuesday. US expected to send medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine
• May 31, 2022. By Rakesh Sharma, VIF. The essence of transformation in the military is to create a marked change in its character or form – mostly for the better, and moving away from the legacy systems. Normally this transforming transformation perspective is relevant to ‘how we will fight’ component of military transformation. Transforming visions are normally united in the view of new and better ships, tanks and fighters. Rather transformations are layered on conventional warfighting doctrines and strategies (for example the proactive strategy), great technological changes (as in information warfare) or low-level counter-insurgency (like raising of Rashtriya Rifles i.e. RR in India). Transformation that Indian Army will be undergoing hereinafter has a very interesting dynamic – led by complete overhaul of human resource at the level of rank and file! There are but no singular examples in the modern international system that one can bank upon, to rationalise the changes happening! Transforming-transformation into neo-Army