IL NOSTRO FOCUS E’ LA “GEOSTRATEGIA DEL RISCHIO”
Complessità e rischio
Il Valdai Club ci invita a una riflessione strategica sui movimenti nell’Indo-Pacifico: non solo quelli “promossi” dagli USA (Quad, Aukus) ma anche quelli tra gli Stati della regione. La Cina è naturalmente al centro di questo quadro e la regione rappresenta il vero interesse di Washington. Quali prospettive per la sicurezza regionale ?
Cosa sarà della NATO dopo la guerra in Ucraina ? Quali sono le vulnerabilità dell’Alleanza e come l’invasione russa ne cambierà il Concetto Strategico ? Da Center for Strategic and International Studies
TODAY:
- AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)
- DEFENSE – MILITARY
- ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)
BRICS – R5 Initiative
- Revisiting the R5 Paradigm, March 31. By Yaroslav Lissovolik, Valdai Discussion Club. The rise in geopolitical risks has notably accentuated the topicality of de-dollarization and the use of national currencies in financial transactions. One of the cases in point was the discussion between China and Saudi Arabia on the possibility of using Chinese Yuan for settlements in lieu of Saudi’s oil deliveries to China. Back in 2017 the Valdai Club advanced the R5 initiative that was meant to bolster financial settlements and transactions in the national currencies of BRICS members. (read more)
Burkina Faso
- Burkina Faso minister: 36 months “realistic” for transition to democracy, March 31, Reuters. (read more)
Greater Eurasia
- The CSTO and EAEU in a New Era: From Abstraction to Practice, March 30. By Valdai Discussion Club. It is difficult now to operate with abstract schemes like the respected concept of “Greater Eurasia”, but it is quite clear that real interaction, which makes it possible to reduce the threats from a world economic war and even gain benefits from it, will do more for implementation in a common space than any ideas of a general nature, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev. (read more)
Hungary
- Orban’s dream of two decades in power hangs in the balance in Hungarian ballot, March 31. By Krisztina Than, Reuters. After his third consecutive landslide victory in 2018, Hungary’s Viktor Orban said his strong new mandate allowed him to plan for 12 years ahead, aiming for an unbroken two-decade spell in power in the former communist Central European country. (read more)
USA – China – Asia
- The Potential Impact of the US-Chinese Conflict in Asia, March 31. By Valdai Discussion Club. The countries of the Asia-Pacific region are motivated to join forces with Washington on the issue of containing China, not because they share democratic values, but because they are concerned about the strengthening of China’s military and economic power amid unresolved territorial disputes and Beijing’s assertiveness in promoting China’s interests and narrative in the region, writes Valdai Club expert Yana Leksyutina. (read more)
Yemen
- Houthis still welcome to join Yemen talks in Riyadh, says GCC official, March 31. By Reuters. An invitation for Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis to join Yemeni talks in Saudi Arabia remains on the table, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) assistant secretary-general Abdulaziz Al-Aweisheq said on Thursday. (read more)
DEFENSE – MILITARY
- NATO after the Invasion, March 30. By CSIS. NATO’s Road to Madrid is back, at a critical time for the alliance. In this episode, hosts Pierre Morcos and Luis Simón are joined by two highly respected experts: Lauren Speranza, Director of the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), and Dan Hamilton, a Senior Fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs. Together, the group breaks down NATO’s response to Russia’s illegal and brutal invasion of Ukraine, the alliance’s potential vulnerabilities, and the effects of the invasion on NATO’s development of its new Strategic Concept. (read more)
ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)
Technology
- Technology and Power, March 30, 2022. By James Andrew Lewis, CSIS. Power is the ability of individuals or groups to shape events. Technology is the practical application of scientific knowledge and the invention and use of devices to improve human performance. New technologies change economies, markets, and cultures by creating new opportunities. While some have a growing fear of technological change, technology remains the best source of continued economic growth and military strength. (read more)
RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
- Reaching Regular Russians, March 30. By Aliide Naylor, CEPA. Grassroots efforts to inform propaganda-saturated Russians about the unprovoked war in Ukraine are proving difficult, though not impossible. (read more)
- Russia Won’t Play the Cyber Card, Yet, March 30. By Jan Kallberg, CEPA. Russia has three means to bolster its international image and project strength —conventional forces, cyber, and nuclear weapons. Only one has been used so far, and for good reason. (read more)
- Putin’s Truth-Twisters and Non-War in Ukraine, March 30. By Kseniya Kirillova, CEPA. Russia’s use of violence against Ukrainian civilians is worsening, something distorted by ever-more cynical propaganda. (read more)
- The Kremlin’s Next Targets? Georgia and Moldova, March 30. By Sergi Kapanadze, CEPA. Whatever the outcome of Russia’s unwarranted war against Ukraine, its implications for Georgia and Moldova are serious and immediate. (read more)
- Considering the No-Fly Zone Prospects in Ukraine, March 30. By Matthew Strohmeyer, Christopher K. Reid, Grace Hwang, CSIS. In light of Russia’s ongoing aggression across much of Ukraine and the growing number of civilian casualties and refugees, there is increasing pressure for the United States and NATO to create a no-fly zone over portions of Ukraine. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky called on the international community to implement a no-fly zone to protect civilians and deny the Russian air force the ability to gain air superiority. Recently, as of last week, several former U.S. officials—including previous supreme allied commanders of Europe—have supported humanitarian-based no-fly zones. The United States and NATO, however, are refusing to impose a no-fly zone over the risk of escalating to a direct conflict with the possible implications of a nuclear threat. Policymakers need to be clear-eyed in their understanding of the tactical challenges, the desired end state, and escalation risks of any form of a no-fly zone. (read more)
- Ukraine expects Russian assault in east after invaders pushed back near Kyiv, March 31. By Vitalii Hnidyi and Pavel Polityuk, Reuters. Ukrainian forces are preparing for new Russian attacks in the southeast, where Moscow’s guns are now trained after its assault on the capital Kyiv was repelled, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday. (read more)
