Open newsletter – march 28, 2022

OUR MAIN TOPIC IS THE GEOSTRATEGY OF RISK

TODAY

• RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
• AROUND THE WORLD (ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)
• DEFENSE – MILITARY
• LOOK IN CHINA

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

• Video of alleged mistreatment of Russian prisoners to be investigated, Kremlin says, march 28. by Chloe Folmar, The Hill. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Monday that Russian officials plan to investigate a viral video that seems to show the mistreatment of captured Russian soldiers by Ukrainian forces. (read more)
• Russians have left Chernobyl workers’ town, mayor says,  march 28. by Joseph Choi, The Hill. The mayor of the town where Chernobyl workers lives said on Monday that Russian forces had left after surveying the defunct nuclear plant, according to a report by Reuters. (read more)
• Kremlin calls Biden’s Putin statement ‘alarming’, march 28. by Sarakshi Rai, The Hill. The Kremlin on Monday said President Biden‘s comment this weekend seemingly suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin should be removed was “alarming.”. (read more)
• Ukraine officials blame Russian ‘provocations’ for not opening humanitarian corridors, march 28. by Chloe Folmar, The Hill. Ukraine Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna said Sunday that his country will not open humanitarian corridors to evacuate Ukrainian civilians for the foreseeable future due to the possibility of Russian “provocations.”. (read more)
• Heineken joins companies exiting Russia, march 28. by Mychael Schnell, The Hill. Heineken is exiting Russia, saying it is “shocked and deeply saddened” to see Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine intensify more than a month after it was launched. (read more)
• In Istanbul and Dubai, Russians pile into property to shelter from sanctions, march 28. by Ceyda Caglayan, Saeed Azhar and Riham Alkousaa, Al Jazeera. Wealthy Russians are pouring money into real estate in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, seeking a financial haven in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions, according to many property companies. (read more)
• Ukraine talks to resume; Kremlin calls Biden remarks “alarming”, march 28. by Pavel Polityuk and Vitalii Hnidyi, Reuters. Ukraine and Russia were preparing on Monday for the first face-to-face peace talks in more than two weeks, with Kyiv insisting it would make no concessions on ceding territory as battlefield momentum has shifted in its favour. (read more)
• Patriarch Kirill: Putin ally faces backlash after ‘blessing’ war, march 28. By  Niko Vorobyov, Al Jazeera. On March 16, Pope Francis held a video meeting with Patriarch Kirill, the 75-year-old leader of the Russian Orthodox Church and a longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin. The head of the Catholic church warned the Russian patriarch against hiding behind religion to justify armed aggression and conquest. (read more)

AROUND THE WORLD (ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)

Belarus

• Belarus puts activist’s girlfriend on trial after dramatic arrest, march 28. by Al Jazeera. The Russian girlfriend of Belarusian dissident Roman Protasevich has gone on trial in Minsk, months after their plane was forced to land in the Belarusian capital, according to Belarusian media. Sofia Sapega, 24, was detained with Protasevich, 26, in May last year when their Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania was grounded as it passed over Belarus. The news led to international condemnation, with some European leaders calling the move a “hijacking”. (read more)

Central African Republic

• CAR peace talks end without concrete progress, march 28. by Al Jazeera. Peace talks in the Central African Republic (CAR), where civil war has raged since 2013, have concluded without any concrete progress. (read more)

El Salvador

• El Salvador declares state of emergency after gang killings, march 28. by Al Jazeera. El Salvador’s parliament has approved the state of emergency that temporarily suspended some constitutional protections in the Central American country following a wave of killings attributed to criminal gangs. Police reported a total of 62 homicides on Saturday, making it the most violent day in nearly three decades. (read more)

G20 – RCEP

• G20 and RCEP key to powering global recovery and development, march 27. by Mari Pangestu and Lili Yan Ing, East Asia Forum. There are two major platforms for international cooperation that can spur economic recovery in the developing world. One is the G20, which represents two-thirds of the global population, 90 per cent of the world’s GDP and 80 per cent of trade. The other is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which took effect in January 2022. The partnership’s 15 members represent about one-third of the world’s population, GDP, trade and investment. (read more)

Iraq’s Kurdistan – Israel – Iran

• Iran struck Iraq target over gas talks involving Israel, march 28. by Ahmed Rasheed and Orhan Coskun, Reuters. A nascent plan for Iraq’s Kurdistan region to supply gas to Turkey and Europe – with Israeli help – is part of what angered Iran into striking the Kurdish capital Erbil with ballistic missiles this month, Iraqi and Turkish officials say. (read more)

Israel – Morocco

• Israel offers support to Morocco over Western Sahara after summit, march 28. by Reuters. Israel on Monday voiced support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal for Western Sahara after the countries’ foreign ministers met at an Israel-Arab summit. (read more)

Malta

• Malta’s PM sworn in after Labour party’s landslide election win, march 28. by Al Jazeera. Malta’s Prime Minister Robert Abela has been sworn in after a landslide victory in elections that delivered his Labour party a third term in government. Labour won 55.11 percent of the vote, final results showed on Sunday – a bigger win than in 2017 or 2013 despite low turnout and the legacy of scandal over the murder of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia. (read more)

Pakistan

• No-confidence motion moved in Pakistan parliament in bid to remove PM Khan, march 28. by Asif Shahzad, Reuters. Pakistan’s parliament took up a no-confidence motion moved by opposition lawmakers on Monday in a bid to remove Prime Minister Imran Khan, pushing the South Asian nation closer to political turmoil. (read more)

RCEP – East Asia 

• The strategic significance of RCEP in East Asia, march 28. by East Asia Forum. Economic cooperation in East Asia has progressed steadily in its own distinct and particular way. Unlike Europe with its customs union and supranational authority in Brussels and North America with its treaty-led integration, ASEAN and the economic powerhouses of China, Japan, and South Korea to its north have pursued non-binding regional cooperation turning the region into a global manufacturing hub. (read more)

Sri Lanka – India

• Sri Lanka seeks another $1bn from India: Report, march 28. by Al Jazeera. Sri Lanka has sought an additional credit line of $1bn from India to import essentials amid its worst economic crisis in decades, Reuters has reported, citing two sources, as the Indian foreign minister began talks with the government of its neighbour. The island nation is struggling to pay for essential imports of food and fuel after a 70 percent drop in foreign exchange reserves since January 2020 led to a currency devaluation and efforts to seek help from global lenders. (read more)

Zimbabwe

• Zimbabwean opposition wins majority seats in by-elections, march 28. by Al Jazeera. The Citizens’ Coalition for Change, Zimbabwe’s leading opposition party, has won 19 out of the 28 national assembly seats in the long-delayed parliamentary by-elections. (read more)

DEFENSE – MILITARY

US, Philippines kick off their largest-ever military drills, march 28. by Al Jazeera. Thousands of soldiers from the Philippines and the United States are participating in the largest-ever joint military drills in the archipelago nation, as the two longtime allies come closer amid fresh tensions in the disputed South China Sea. The war games are the last under outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, who previously threatened to cancel exercises and axe a key military deal with the US as he pivoted towards China. (read more)

LOOK IN CHINA

• China’s digital renminbi is no fast track to internationalisation of the currency, march 28. by Haihong Gao, East Asia Forum. China is one of the first countries to develop a central bank digital currency. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) first proposed the idea of a digital renminbi in 2014. Since then, significant progress has been made on the concept and the development of the digital renminbi has attracted global attention. One issue that is frequently discussed is whether the digital renminbi will serve as a new channel for the internationalisation of the renminbi. (read more)