Europe – Canada
The European Union and Canada have agreed to build the closest possible relationship. Over the next six months, they will have to define what that means — and whether Canada can become the EU’s first, and perhaps only, associate member. A summit in Montreal last week highlighted the urgency behind the budding relationship. Both sides say their partnership is positive and not directed against any country. But it is also driven by mutual need: to shore up supply chains, pool expertise and reduce reliance on the United States and China. Mark Carney told POLITICO in an interview straight after the summit that the two sides should not be tailoring their partnership to cope with the potential reactions of other powers. “We’re not adjusting [based on] what the U.S. might think, what China might think, what … Russia might think,” he said. The goal, the Canadian prime minister explained, is to help both sides “withstand shocks” and prevent rivals from exploiting critical dependencies. The test of that plan comes in six months, when the European Commission will meet with the Canadian government to see what progress has been made. One diplomat involved in the talks, granted anonymity to speak freely, said the meeting, which will be held in March before next year’s EU-Canada summit in Brussels, should make clear how far the relationship can develop and whether Ottawa is really on track for associate membership. In the months ahead, there will be plenty of issues that could distract EU leaders. Governments must negotiate the bloc’s next seven-year budget, amid deep divisions over its size and spending priorities. Plus, a series of elections in some of the EU’s biggest countries, including Spain, France, Italy and Poland, will make concentrating on Canada a tall order. – POLITICO EU and Canada’s 6-month test of commitment
Germany – Asia
Friedrich Merz ended his five-day trip to Asia on Friday reflecting on Europe’s past. After visiting the blue barracks where the armistice that ended the Korean War was signed in 1953, in the Joint Security Area where North and South Korean troops stand face-to-face, the German chancellor addressed the obvious parallels between his country’s history and Korea’s present. “Thoughts are running through my mind about how grateful we may be that in Germany we haven’t had to experience this for 36 years,” Merz said. The remarks concluded a tour of Singapore, Japan and South Korea, where the chancellor was challenged by Asian capitals over security and trade cooperation — and often reminded of how the region’s turmoil are intertwined with Europe’s precarious moment. – POLITICO How Merz’s five-day Asia trip ended up being mostly about Europe
Middle East and the Gulf
With little transparency from Washington and warmongering from Tehran, people across the Middle East have been left anxious and confused, scanning for signals on whether the conflict between Iran and the United States will reignite. “The mood has definitely shifted,” a 36-year-old American national living in Saudi Arabia told CNN. She plans to leave before Tuesday’s midterms, after which US President Donald Trump has hinted renewed fighting is possible. “People are more cautious in general, and it feels like a waiting game to see what happens,” she added. At homes and workplaces across Gulf Arab countries, questions are swirling. Residents are searching for clues that could help them make plans in case of school closures or travel disruption. – CNN Middle East on edge as fears mount that Iran war could restart after the midterms
US
A Democrat in Michigan has endorsed the Republican candidate in the state’s crucial US Senate contest, as a spat with her own party’s candidate Abdul El-Sayed escalated just days before the vote. Haley Stevens, a sitting congresswoman who lost out on the Democratic Senate nomination to El-Sayed, made a surprise appearance alongside the Republican candidate Mike Rogers on Sunday. “I don’t belong in Abdul’s campaign,” she said in a video posted to X shortly after that appearance. “Who we are as Michiganders is not hate and is not what we are getting out from our Democratic nominee right now”. “That’s why I am endorsing Mike Rogers,” Stevens said. The move stunned many of Stevens’ fellow Democrats who condemned her decision to break from the party and switch her support just two days before the election, with one calling it a “despicable betrayal”. The public feud between Stevens, a centrist Democrat, and El-Sayed, who represents the party’s left-wing, has boiled over in recent days. Stevens called on El-Sayed to denounce a campaign advert from an outside liberal group that linked US support for Israel with high prices. El-Sayed criticised the advert and said he had nothing to do with its contents. Stevens had been scheduled to appear at an event with El-Sayed on Sunday in an effort to display party unity, but he reportedly asked her not to come and she chose to attend a church service with his Republican opponent instead. – BBC Democrat Haley Stevens endorses Republican in Michigan Senate race
The Democratic Party has high expectations as it heads into these pivotal US midterm elections. A historically unpopular Republican president, an American public unhappy with the rising costs of food and bills, and months of favourable polls point to a good night for them on Tuesday. Democratic candidates lead in well over the 218 seats needed to flip control of the lower chamber of Congress, the House of Representatives, the polls suggest. And they are tied or narrowly ahead in the key Senate races. A recent New York Times poll had the Senate race in South Carolina, a state Donald Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024, as a tie. Recent CNN surveys put the Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas and Maine. But are the polls accurate? Recent US political history is littered with examples where public opinion polls, even ones just days before an election, were off the mark. Trump outperformed predictions on his way to White House victories in 2016 and 2024. His narrow defeat in 2020 came after most surveys indicated a more comfortable win for Democrat Joe Biden. Earlier this year, polls suggested Democrat Abdul El-Sayed was poised for a double-digit win in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary. Instead it was 1%. In Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor, the candidate that had a polling lead that approached 20 points lost by a fraction of a percent. – BBC Democrats have high hopes for midterms, but polls have let them down before
A judge has tossed a lawsuit by the Trump administration that sought to delay certifying results in Alaska’s crucial Senate race if the Republican incumbent loses. The suit by the US Department of Justice argued that having two candidates named Dan Sullivan on the ballot could cause “voter confusion” and take support from incumbent Republican Dan S Sullivan. The judge ruled that the federal government doesn’t have authority to force Alaska to segregate and investigate any ballots in the three-way race between Sullivan, Daniel J Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola. The Alaska Senate contest is considered one the closest in the Tuesday midterms, where control of Congress will be up for grabs. “The United States provides no workable plan as to how it proposes to segregate ballots cast for Daniel J. Sullivan on Election Day and then conduct a court-ordered unspecified ‘investigation’ of those ballots in a manner that would preserve voter secrecy,” US District Judge Sharon Gleason wrote in the ruling. Alaska voters have the right to a secret ballot, she wrote, adding that regardless, such a move by the justice department would be too late as it is only days before the midterm election. Many voters have already cast their ballots in early voting and postal voting. After the ruling, the justice department said it would file to appeal. It said in a statement that the court dismissed the federal case on “procedural grounds but did not dispute the argument of the United States that Daniel J. Sullivan (a/k/a Decoy Dan) entered the race as a frivolous candidate to confuse voters”. “Alaskan voters deserve a fair election, not to be misled in an attempt to rig outcomes,” the statement continued. – BBC Judge dismisses Trump lawsuit over two Dan Sullivans in Alaska election
US – Europe
The Make America Healthy Again crusade against Big Food is crossing the Atlantic. Donald Trump’s health secretary has made packaged, mass-produced munchies one of the targets of his health agenda. And while Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s broadsides against vaccines have alarmed Brussels he has found an ally in the European Commission on this pillar of the MAHA mission. Health Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi — former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s man in Brussels — has backed Kennedy’s push, saying Europe and the U.S. share an ambition to tackle unhealthy diets. “I welcome the US – including Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – putting a stronger spotlight on this agenda including the #eatrealfood campaign,” Várhelyi wrote on LinkedIn after his appearance at the USA-EU Transatlantic Business Summit in Brussels earlier this year. But sharing an ambition is the easy part. Deciding what ultra-processed food is — and whether or how it should be regulated: not so much. At the heart of the debate is a growing body of research linking UPFs to conditions such as obesity and diabetes, risks everyone says they want to reduce. But the challenge is translating that evidence into public health policy without dictating what people eat. For industry, the priority is protecting personal choice. For public health advocates, the problem is systemic. What appears to be an individual choice is often the result of inequality, they argue — influenced by income, education and a food environment that can make healthier options harder to access. The issue has been pitting health advocates against Big Food companies on multiple continents for years now — but global momentum is moving toward regulation as the World Health Organization prepares to unveil new tools to help policymakers this week. The “million dollar question,” as health activist Liz Arnanz put it, is how to define ultra-processed foods. The term might bring to mind salty chips, preservative-filled pastries and sugary drinks, but that category can also include whole-grain bread or fortified yogurt. “We are seeing a huge increase of deaths linked to unhealthy diets,” said Arnanz, of the NCD Alliance, an NGO fighting against noncommunicable diseases. Not only are UPFs usually “high in fats and sugar and sodium,” she argued, but there is also “an independent unhealthiness layer of the processing of food”. Her last point is a controversial one, directly disputed by industry and up for debate among scientists. Where health advocates see cheap junk food that’s chemically engineered to be addictive, the industry can point to innovations that make products more nutritious, less expensive and safer to eat, for longer. – POLITICO Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s food fight is coming to Brussels
US – NATO
NATO countries are bracing for a worst-case scenario in the U.S. midterm elections Tuesday. European allies fear a Republican loss could spur President Donald Trump to dramatically step up his attacks on the alliance, according to five NATO diplomats, all of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive issue. Their worry is that if he is restrained by Congress on domestic policy, Trump, as commander-in-chief of the U.S. military, may seek to cement his legacy on foreign affairs, where he has a freer hand. That could mean pulling thousands more troops out of Europe, three of the diplomats said. “Usually what happens to lame duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy,” said one senior European defense official. And attacking NATO “seems to be a consistent part of [the] Trump worldview”. White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales told POLITICO that “President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else,” citing his successes in securing agreements by allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, bolster U.S. military presence in Greenland, and efforts to end Russia’s all-out war in Ukraine. Yet he “remains firm that our NATO allies should have been there for the United States” over the war in Iran, she said, adding: “The President will never settle for the West’s managed decline and will continue to unapologetically advance our interests at home and abroad”. Democrats are widely expected to win the House of Representatives and potentially flip the Senate, while Trump’s personal approval ratings have fallen to his lowest on record. The worries underscore growing transatlantic tensions after a U.S. cutoff of Starlink satellite services for Ukraine and a fresh rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin weeks before the midterms. Further attacks would deal a fresh blow to NATO, just as Russia steps up its sabotage campaign and so-called hybrid war across Europe. “He could be very pissed off,” said one of the NATO diplomats. If so, “he’ll be very harsh.” – POLITICO Allies fear Trump will target NATO in case of midterm loss
Tech World
A perennial also-ran in the global AI race, Europe now sees an opportunity to win what promises to be another technological revolution by learning from its mistakes. Brussels is set to unveil the Quantum Act, a major piece of tech-sector legislation aimed at pushing EU countries to band together to attempt to stay ahead of the United States and China in quantum computing. A draft of the November proposal obtained by POLITICO seeks to overcome factors that have constrained Europe’s ambitions in artificial intelligence, including a lack of funding to turn research into commercially viable and competitive products — and to scale globally. Crucially, it also shifts focus away from regulating the technology to driving competitiveness — an acknowledgement of concerns that Europe overregulated AI and shouldn’t do the same in a field in which it is at the scientific forefront. “Quantum is one of those [technologies] where we definitely can and should lead the pack,” said Théau Peronnin, CEO of French quantum computing company Alice & Bob. Quantum is considered the next technological breakthrough that could revolutionize many industries, from drug discovery to the military, as the problem-solving capabilities of quantum computers far surpass those of current computers. There is also a huge national security dimension, since it has the potential to break the encryption technology that secures modern communications and banking services. Much of the research is still in the laboratory, but experts forecast that over the next five years, the new generation of computing will become more widely available — and be made only more powerful when fused with AI’s continued progress. “Quantum computing is a way to solve problems that are so difficult that we know that with our normal computers we will never be able to solve,” said Jan Goetz, CEO of Finnish quantum computing company IQM, in an interview. The draft leans heavily on supporting the industry, ideally at the EU level, to avoid national champions struggling to scale because of a lack of funding. It also mandates governments to procure quantum technology from EU-based companies, or from countries that have a strategic partnership with the EU on the technology. The EU agrees quantum legislation should be fundamentally different than for AI, a senior Commission official told POLITICO: “It’s not about regulation. There’s nothing to regulate.” – POLITICO Forget AI, Europe has a plan to win the next tech revolution
