President Donald Trump’s war with Iran has dragged into its eighth month. But lately there has been some good news for the United States: More oil is getting out of the Middle East, at least more non-Iranian oil, than at any point since the United States and Israel launched the conflict on February 28.
Actual figures on oil exports are disputed, because many tankers are going through the Strait of Hormuz with their trackers turned off, but the private firm Kpler estimated that in September crude oil exports were just under 70 percent of the prewar level. The major U.S.-allied oil producers exported about thirteen million barrels a day, down from nineteen million barrels a day in February. Iran, by contrast, has not been able to move its oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. Navy imposed a blockade in July.
That has led to some predictable—and predictably exaggerated—chest-thumping on Trump’s part. The president last week boasted that “we have almost total control” of the strait, that “we took more oil out of the Strait of Hormuz over the last couple of days than at any point in history,” and that the United States will win the war with Iran “very soon.” His bravado is endorsed by some experts who have supported the war.
But does this suggest that the United States is on the verge of defeating Iran? The world has heard that too often from Trump and his aides over the past seven months to take his words too seriously. The reality is more complicated: While the increase in oil exports is a positive development, there is no reason to think that it portends Iranian willingness to accede to Trump’s ambitious demands, which range from ending its nuclear and missile programs to ending its support for proxy movements in the region to, well, ending the Islamic regime itself.
by Max Boot/Council on Foreign Relations – More Oil, Same War: Why Increased Exports Aren’t a Sign of Iran’s Imminent Defeat
