Geostrategic magazine (2 september 2026)

Afghanistan 

(UN News) Victims of Afghanistan’s decades-long armed conflict continue to suffer profound physical, psychological, social and economic consequences, often without access to justice, reparation or formal acknowledgement of the harm done to them, according to a new UN report. Afghanistan has endured over 40 years of continuous warfare, causing widespread death, displacement and destruction. Between 2009 and 2021 – as fighting ground on between coalition and coalition-backed Government forces, the Taliban and other militants – the UN mission in the country (UNAMA) documented more than 40,000 civilians killed and more than 77,000 wounded caused by the conflict. The report focuses on this period of conflict up to the Taliban takeover, interviewing almost 200 victims of armed conflict and their relatives. – Decades of war have left ‘depth and breadth’ of trauma across Afghanistan, UN finds | UN News

China  – Egypt

(Al Arabiya) Chinese President Xi Jinping said Wednesday that his country was willing to work with countries in the Middle East to protect shipping, Beijing’s state media said, as the US-Iran war upends maritime logistics from the region. “China stands ready to work with countries in the region to safeguard the security of international shipping lanes, advance development cooperation… and eliminate the breeding grounds for conflict,” Xi told his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi during talks in Cairo, state news agency Xinhua reported. – Xi says China willing to work with Mideast countries to ‘safeguard’ shipping: State media

China – Latin America

(Juan Fernando Herrera Ramos – ASPI The Strategist) It doesn’t all go Beijing’s way. In Latin America, China has been suffering notable reversals of influence. Honduras is a clear example. When it switched recognition from Taiwan to China in 2023, many observers interpreted the decision as another sign of Beijing’s growing influence in Latin America. In May, however, the Honduran congress approved investigations into Chinese business activities and a reassessment of bilateral agreements. Huawei-linked projects have come under growing scrutiny, while alternative suppliers such as Cisco Systems have entered public discussion. The 2023 diplomatic switch led to Honduran shrimp exporters losing access to Taiwan, which had been one of their most important markets. This caused a sharp decline in sales, leading to thousands of job losses as dozens of companies were forced to close. Facing this economic hit, President Nasry Asfura has publicly raised the possibility of restoring relations with Taipei, even as his government maintains ties with Beijing. – In relations with China, Latin America puts itself first | The Strategist

Germany

(Phyllis Berry – Atlantic Council) Germany’s state-election season starts with a big test in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is within reach of a parliamentary majority. A breakthrough there could reverberate through the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern that follow. Merz will likely come out of September weakened. Losses for the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats would make reform harder and deepen the fight over whether the “firewall” against AfD is working. – What’s at stake for the AfD and Merz in Germany’s three September elections – Atlantic Council

India – Uzbekistan 

(DigWatch) The governments of India and Uzbekistan have announced a commercial agreement to connect their national digital payment ecosystems. Under the agreement, NPCI International Payments Limited (NIPL) will work with Uzbekistan’s National Interbank Processing Centre (NIPC), the operator of the HUMO payment system, to enable India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) applications to scan Uzbekistan’s interoperable UZQR codes for merchant payments. The arrangement forms part of the countries’ newly elevated comprehensive strategic partnership. The integration links India’s UPI infrastructure with Uzbekistan’s nationally mandated QR network, allowing payments to be initiated through an Indian application and accepted through Uzbek merchant infrastructure. It therefore represents more than the overseas acceptance of a payment application: it establishes interoperability between domestic payment rails and creates regulated cross-border flows of payment instructions, transaction information and settlement data. – India and Uzbekistan link national digital payment infrastructure | Digital Watch Observatory

Israel – Gaza

(AFP) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday visited Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip, where he vowed not to pull back troops despite a recent push by mediators to advance a US-backed ceasefire plan calling for their withdrawal. It was the first time Netanyahu has visited the war-shattered territory since the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in October 2025. “We control the area. We are not retreating. We are staying on this line,” Netanyahu said near the so-called Yellow Line, which demarcates the areas under Hamas and Israeli military control. – Netanyahu, in Gaza, says ‘we are not retreating’

Jordan

(Aaron Magid – Atlantic Council) For decades, Jordan’s leaders have showcased the military’s importance to the national ethos. After joining the British military and deploying to West Germany, King Abdullah II enlisted in the Jordanian Armed Forces (JAF). He spent over fifteen years in uniform and later said that JAF service is an “honor to be proud of, a great responsibility, and a sacred national duty.” The king’s eldest son, Crown Prince Hussein, is also a JAF officer and was promoted to major in 2024 after serving as an infantry platoon commander. Last year, the heir apparent announced mandatory national conscription with the goal of a “stronger” Jordan that would be “self-reliant.” As a major non-NATO ally of the US, Amman regularly acquires advanced weapons to strengthen its military capabilities. But now, as Jordan faces the most significant attack by a foreign government since Abdullah ascended the throne in 1999, its long-lauded military is playing a minor public role. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked Jordan with ballistic missiles overnight Sunday, an incident that has become all too common. The IRGC has fired hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at the Hashemite Kingdom since February, including a July attack on an Azraq military base that killed three US soldiers. The IRGC attacks have weakened the kingdom’s vital tourism sector, and dozens of Jordanians have been injured by falling debris after interceptions. And yet, the JAF has not announced a single retaliatory strike against Iran. Abdullah was not always so restrained in his deployment of military force. In 2015, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) brutally executed Jordanian first lieutenant Muath al-Kasasbeh, burning the kidnapped pilot alive while he was trapped inside a cage. Amman pledged an “earth-shattering response” to al-Kasasbeh’s gruesome murder; Jordan’s Air Force launched over fifty strikes against ISIS training camps and weapons depots in Syria and Iraq. The king understood that not retaliating militarily after such a significant attack on Jordan would send a problematic message to the country’s adversaries. – Jordan’s military deterrence has collapsed  – Atlantic Council

Nuclear Weapons

(Jane Hardy – ASPI The Strategist) The stalled US–Iran negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program and President Donald Trump’s announcement of a US-Saudi nuclear agreement have put nuclear weapons back in the spotlight. But the threat of nuclear breakout has been growing for several decades, driven by the same fear Einstein held in the 1940s. Today, the permanent five UN Security Council members – the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France – plus North Korea, India and Pakistan, have nuclear arsenals and sophisticated delivery systems. All are expanding or modernising their arsenals. Prior to Israeli and US attacks in 2025 and 2026, Iran was on track to obtain nuclear weapons. Tehran may still be on this track. Increasingly, other countries are questioning US commitment to extended nuclear deterrence: using nuclear weapons to defend other countries. Some of these countries could be contemplating indigenous nuclear capabilities. The last of the US-Russia nuclear arms limitations treaties, ‘New START’, expired with no replacement in February. So, for the first time in six decades, the world has entered an era without nuclear weapons constraints. Yet today’s international community lacks the resolve and inventiveness of the early Cold War years when a global grand bargain was struck: the then five nuclear weapons states would pursue disarmament, and countries without nuclear weapons would agree not to develop them in exchange for access to peaceful nuclear technology. – Nuclear weapons: the global outlook in an unstable new era | The Strategist

Russia – Europe

(Atlantic Council) A plane landed, and an alarming rumor took off. On August 25, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow for an unannounced visit. One reported reason for the trip was to warn Russian leaders against attacking NATO allies. Russia has long carried out hybrid warfare across Europe in the form of sabotage, misinformation, and cyberattacks. It is also continuing its war on Ukraine, a conflict that has already spilled over into other countries in the form of drones and missiles. Yet Ratcliffe’s unexpected visit has raised new concerns and drawn comparisons to then CIA chief Bill Burns’s trip to Moscow shortly before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. – Where and how Putin could expand his war in Europe beyond Ukraine – Atlantic Council

Russia – Ukraine

(Reuters) Russian drones tore into central Kyiv on Wednesday morning, wounding 11 people and damaging residential and university buildings on the seventh day of nearly round-the-clock attacks that have upended daily life in the city. Moscow’s new air campaign against the Ukrainian capital and surrounding region has killed dozens of civilians and disrupted logistics as Kyiv struggles to shoot down the jet-powered drones that have swarmed the area in waves. Wednesday’s attack on a downtown university took place while students were in class, forcing some 160 to seek shelter, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. – Russian drones slam into central Kyiv in seventh day of strikes

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

(UN News) UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Tuesday urged leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to help reshape global governance for a changing world, arguing that a more multipolar international order can strengthen multilateralism, advance fairness and better serve developing countries. Addressing the SCO summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, the Secretary-General said shifting global power dynamics present an opportunity to build more representative international institutions and a United Nations that works “at the service of all without double standards in line with the Charter”. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a Eurasian political, economic and security grouping founded in 2001 that today brings together 10 member States, including China, India, Pakistan, Russia and several Central Asian countries. It is one of the world’s largest regional organizations by population and geographic scope. – At SCO summit In Kyrgyzstan, Guterres calls for more representative global governance | UN News

Tech World, Cybersecurity, Surveillance

(DigWatch) Submissions for the Australian Parliament inquiry into artificial intelligence and data centres closed on 1 September. The inquiry is examining energy and water consumption of AI data centres, grid and infrastructure effects, environmental impacts, planning and community consultation, economic benefits, and regulatory adequacy. The final report is scheduled for 16 November 2026. – Australian Parliament closes AI data centre inquiry submissions | Digital Watch Observatory

(DigWatch) China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has outlined new measures to accelerate the development and real-world application of embodied intelligence, focusing on training environments, data, models, standards, and testing infrastructure. Speaking at the NDRC’s press conference on 28 August, spokesperson Li Chao said the commission would use embodied-intelligence training grounds and national AI application pilot bases to help robots improve through real-world scenarios and meet practical demand. – China outlines embodied intelligence measures for robot deployment | Digital Watch Observatory

(Phil Muncaster – Infosecurity Magazine) The global financial system is at risk as frontier AI models transform the cyber-threat environment, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) has warned. Chaired by the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, the FSB is an advisory body that monitors for potential risks to global markets. In a letter to G20 finance ministers and central bank governors dated August 28, Bailey warned that AI is complicating a risk landscape already shocked by conflict in the Middle East and its impact on inflation. – Financial Stability Board Sounds the Alarm Over Frontier AI Risks – Infosecurity Magazine

(Phil Muncaster – Infosecurity Magazine) One of America’s largest healthcare distributors is investigating a serious data breach which notorious threat actor ShinyHunters has claimed responsibility for. Founded in 1833, McKesson provides wholesale medical supplies and pharmaceutical distribution to over 40,000 corporate and institutional customers. However, the firm revealed in a statement on August 28 that it was investigating an incident “involving third-party applications and unauthorized access and exfiltration of data.” – Healthcare Giant McKesson Investigates Data Breach Incident – Infosecurity Magazine

(Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs) Aesto Health, a U.S. healthcare technology company, disclosed a data breach that exposed personal and health information belonging to more than 9.5 million people. The company discovered the incident on December 18, 2025, after attackers gained access to part of its Amazon Web Services infrastructure. Aesto Health is a U.S. healthcare technology company based in Birmingham, Alabama. It helps healthcare providers manage and protect electronic health records and other legacy medical data. Its services include secure data migration, electronic health record (EHR) exchanges and long-term data archiving. Aesto works with medical practices and healthcare organizations that need to move, store or access patient information securely. – Attackers Access Aesto Health AWS Infrastructure, Exposing 9.5 Million Records – Security Affairs

(Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs) Security researcher Chaotic Eclipse, also known as INFINITE NIGHTMARE, MSNightmare and Nightmare-Eclipse, released a new zero-day exploit targeting GenDigital Avast Antivirus. The researcher named the exploit PrettyPrague, it triggers a privilege escalation flaw. The researcher claims to have found another zero-day in an antimalware product, this time targeting Avast Antivirus. The PoC exploits a flaw in Avast Sandbox to dump the Windows SAM database and gain a SYSTEM-level shell. It reportedly works even on fully patched Avast Antivirus and Windows 11 25H2. The researcher also suspects the flaw may affect other Gen Digital products, including AVG and Norton. – Chaotic Eclipse Releases GenDigital Avast Antivirus ZeroDay PrettyPrague

(Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs) Five Venezuelan nationals have pleaded guilty after trying to steal cash from ATMs in Kansas using the popular ATM jackpotting technique. The U.S. Department of Justice announced the case on August 31, following an FBI investigation that ended with the suspects’ arrests just days after the attempted thefts. The case started in December 2025, when the five defendants traveled from Indiana to Kansas and targeted ATMs in Wamego and Manhattan. According to court documents cited by the DOJ, their plan was to install malware directly onto the machines and then remotely trigger the infected ATMs to dispense cash, which the group would collect afterward. “The conspirators were unsuccessful in installing the malware on the ATM in Wamego, but their attempts at installing the malware triggered the alarm causing law enforcement to respond, and the culprits didn’t return to the site. In Manhattan, the group was equally unsuccessful in getting the ATM to dispense money. Both attempted thefts were captured by surveillance cameras, and the perpetrators were arrested a few days later.” – Five Venezuelan Nationals Plead Guilty in Kansas ATM Jackpotting Attempt

(Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs) Companies keep accidentally hiring North Korea-linked individuals as remote workers, and Huntress just published the receipts. The security firm’s investigation documents five confirmed cases in 2026 alone where DPRK-aligned workers, tracked under the name FAMOUS CHOLLIMA, talked their way into legitimate jobs using fake or stolen identities, spanning IT roles, sales and marketing, and even healthcare positions. The main challenge is that this isn’t a typical cyberattack. These workers get hired, complete the onboarding process and often perform the job they’re paid to do, while sending part of their earnings back to North Korea. Huntress says the workers aren’t breaking into companies through technical vulnerabilities. Instead, they use fake identities and other tricks to get legitimate jobs, which makes them much harder to spot with traditional security tools. – North Korea-linked IT Workers Are Getting Hired Inside Western Companies

(Raelene Lockhorst – ASPI The Strategist) National Cabinet spent last Wednesday discussing how Australia’s data centres will be powered. The harder question – where they should be built – was left off the table. The meeting was meant to lock in mandatory national standards for large data centres covering energy, water and land use. It didn’t. Queensland and the Northern Territory refused to sign up to rules tying new facilities to renewable generation. Going in, the federal government said it would override both governments if they held out. Following the meeting, Energy Minister Chris Bowen said there would be no carve-outs or exceptions to those rules, only a narrow concession allowing existing coal and gas where a jurisdiction could prove that they would be cheaper than renewables. Legislation isn’t expected until 2027. The investment pipeline is estimated above A$150 billion, and developers are already moving to secure approvals under current rules. Once granted, the geography is fixed for decades and no later standard will move it. – Before deciding how to power data centres, decide where to build them | The Strategist

US – Venezuela

(David L. Goldwyn and Andrea Clabough – Atlantic Council) Oil watchers were stunned this weekend when the US government announced a purportedly “historic” deal with the Venezuelan government, which will allegedly include seventeen major Venezuelan oil fields and an estimated 65 billion barrels in oil reserves for a century-long concession agreement. In its most expansive interpretation, this still lightly-detailed bilateral agreement would give the US government direct control over more than 7 percent of known global proven oil reserves. President Donald Trump himself declared on Sunday that oil produced from this agreement will help to refill the historically low US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as a “Gift from Venezuela to the People of the United States”. While the administration is right to use its leverage to make sure that Venezuela has a competitive framework that maximizes revenue for Venezuelans and attracts capital, that leverage would be better spent in improving the Organic Hydrocarbons Law and implementing regulations. – Four questions on the US-Venezuelan oil deal – Atlantic Council

War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf 

(Al Arabiya) Top aides to President Donald Trump are pushing to keep the Iran war from escalating before November’s midterm elections to staunch Republican electoral losses, four people familiar with the discussions said, a strategy already under strain as the US and Iran exchanged back-and-forth attacks overnight. White House officials will consider ramping up military action after the November 3 vote, said the sources, who requested anonymity to describe internal thinking, though any return to full-scale conflict is far from a given. The US military said its latest strikes were retaliation for recent attacks on American forces and marine traffic in the region. For now, the sources said, the administration wants to rely on applying more economic pressure on Iran in an effort to extract concessions in any future negotiation that months of military action failed to secure. “We are keeping the pressure on Iran,” one White House official said. “But November is a priority.” – Trump aides seek ‘quiet’ in Iran war but say attacks may intensify after midterm elections

(Reuters) US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday said airlines, the maritime industry and digital assets could be possible targets as the Trump administration continues its planned efforts to squeeze Iran’s economy. Bessent, asked about Russian support for Iran in an interview on Fox News following a G20 gathering in North Carolina this week, also warned “everyone” against backing Tehran. – US eyes airlines, digital assets as Iran-related targets, Bessent says

(Al Arabiya) Saudi Arabia on Wednesday condemned Iran’s attack on a Saudi vessel in the Strait of Hormuz in an incident that left two killed. The Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the Kingdom condemns “Iran’s targeting of the Saudi tanker (Sidr) while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which resulted in fatalities among the tanker’s crew”. National shipping carrier Bahri confirmed earlier today that the SIDR had been involved in a security incident while transiting the strait earlier this week leading to the death of two seafarers. –  Saudi Arabia condemns Iran’s targeting of vessel, attacks on neighbors

(Al Arabiya) US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would not force Iran to the negotiating table, calling on the Iranian people to “rise up and fight”. “I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better,” he said adding that the US was in almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran’s economy was “totally collapsing.” – Trump says not forcing Iran to negotiating table, calls on Iranians to ‘rise up and fight’

(Al Arabiya) The US and Iran found themselves back on a war footing on Wednesday after the most significant exchange of fire in weeks, with Washington threatening more devastating strikes while Iran protested an attack that it said killed five and wounded dozens of civilians at a wedding. The US military’s Central Command said it struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air defenses, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites on Tuesday, with Iranian media reporting hits on multiple targets near the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway where Tehran has threatened tankers attempting to pass without authorization. Iran said it struck US assets in Jordan and Iraq, according to official statements, while Iranian media reports said it also attacked Bahrain. – US and Iran exchange attacks as lull in war appears over

(Reuters) The US military said on Wednesday it completed its latest wave of strikes on Iran, saying it struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets as the Iran war escalated following a weekend exchange of fire. US forces struck IRGC targets “including air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites,” the US Central Command said on X. An Axios report, citing US officials, said the US military attacked two Iranian government tankers in Tuesday’s strikes. – US military says it completed latest wave of strikes on Iran

(The Soufan Center) The fragile ceasefire and current status quo of the war between the United States and Iran were tested over the weekend as the U.S. military launched its first strikes in over a month and Iran responded with strikes against U.S. bases in Jordan. The U.S. is reportedly considering a more extended campaign that would be aimed at Iranian radar, air defense, and anti-ship capabilities along the Strait, capabilities that Iran is currently believed to be rebuilding. The return to fighting comes on the heels of several high-ranking U.S. military leaders warning the Secretary of Defense that continuing large-scale military operations against Iran is becoming unsustainable and risks opening the force to other vulnerabilities, including the ability to confront other U.S. adversaries. With both the U.S. and Iran believing that they have the leverage, the most likely scenario is continued conflict, with no clear off-ramps available and no immediate end in sight to a war that has rattled the global economy and destabilized large parts of the Middle East. – Iran and U.S. Trade Blows with Potential to Return to Full-Scale Conflict – The Soufan Center

West Bank 

(UN News) Lack of funding has forced the World Food Programme (WFP) to slash aid to families in the West Bank by half even though needs have more than doubled over the past two years. “We’re running out of funding, and that means that from today, some 200,000 people will lose access to critical assistance,” Shaun Hughes, WFP country director for Palestine, told journalists in Geneva on Tuesday. He said intensified settler violence and escalating Israeli military operations alongside severe movement restrictions, demolitions and widespread displacement “have eroded Palestinian livelihoods and contributed to increased food insecurity”. – Food aid cutback in the occupied West Bank as health fears grow in Gaza | UN News

The Global Eye is in partnership with SIOI – Società Italiana per l’Organizzazione Internazionale

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