(Elliott Abrams – Council on Foreign Relations) Hamas’s assault on October 7, 2023, was the culmination of years of Iranian efforts to surround Israel with Tehran’s proxies. Hamas and Hezbollah controlled Gaza and Lebanon, Iran-backed Shia militias dominated Iraq, and the Iranian regime worked closely with the Houthis in Yemen and the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria to encircle Israel. Israel has since torn apart this so-called ring of fire.
Hamas is badly weakened and Israel has taken control of half of Gaza. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is so disrupted that the Lebanese government and the Lebanese Armed Forces can now contemplate challenging it. The Assad regime fell amid this regional chaos, and in Iraq, the government is pushing back against the Shia militias to bring them under some control. But Iran’s weakness is also domestic: a dramatic uprising took place earlier this year and was put down only through the slaughter of tens of thousands of unarmed civilian protesters, and by every indication, the great majority of Iranians loathe the brutal and repressive theocracy that controls their country.
The question now facing the Trump administration is whether to build on these changes by further weakening the Islamic Republic of Iran or to provide a quick accommodation that rescues the regime.
While President Donald Trump fancies himself a great negotiator, his obvious desire for a deal with Iran has weakened his hand. Battering the Iranian economy by continuing the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil exports is eminently possible, but it may not deliver results before the U.S. congressional elections in November. Faced with a similar problem in 2006, President George W. Bush dismissed political considerations and proceeded with the surge of U.S. troops in Iraq. Trump seems disinclined to put national security over politics.
The Global Eye is in partnership with SIOI – Società Italiana per l’Organizzazione Internazionale
