In partnership with
Nicaragua – US
(Juan Sebastian Chamorro e Maria Fernanda Bozmoski – Atlantic Council) Daniel Ortega’s move to abolish elections marks a new stage of authoritarian rule and challenges the US to respond beyond rhetoric. The Trump administration should apply targeted economic and diplomatic pressure while avoiding measures that would disproportionately harm ordinary Nicaraguans. Instead of outright military intervention, the US should help to organize a regional coalition to support democratic forces and counter repression. – How the US should respond to Ortega declaring no more elections in Nicaragua – Atlantic Council
Russia – Tajikistan
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) More than 800,000 Tajiks have acquired Russian citizenship over the last decade. Most have taken advantage of the right to dual citizenship that a 1995 accord uniquely allows among the countries of the former Soviet space. This arrangement has limited Moscow’s ability to restrict unpopular immigration and is even changing the country’s ethnic mix. Dual citizenship simultaneously poses a challenge to Tajikistan’s independence from Moscow’s control. Some in both countries now want that arrangement canceled. The Kremlin remains largely opposed, since abrogation would represent a retreat from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to maintain Russian influence in Central Asia and his drive to reintegrate the former Soviet space. – Nearly a Million Tajiks Have Taken Russian Citizenship Affecting Both Countries – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov’s admission that Russia’s “special military operation” (SVO) has become a “real war” marks a departure from years of official rhetoric and may signal that Moscow is preparing to escalate rather than negotiate. Reports that the Kremlin has resolved to intensify the war, expected mobilization after the September Duma elections, Peskov’s remarks, and a draft law requiring exit visas to prevent draft-age men from leaving Russia point toward this potential escalation. Should escalation proceed, Russia’s capacity to sustain it rests partly on an expanding Cossack mobilization network that is forming drone units, conducting reserve exercises, and building a reserve force expected to reach 60,000. – Kremlin Rhetoric Hints at Escalation – Jamestown
Türkiye – China
(Vusal Guliyev – The Jamestown Foundation) Türkiye and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are working to improve transportation logistics and infrastructure to advance trans-Eurasian trade and connectivity through the Middle Corridor and the One Belt, One Road initiative. Türkiye’s Pasifik ISR and the PRC’s Guangzhou Communications Investment International Train Operation Management Co. Ltd. signed a railway cooperation agreement on June 10. This is another step for improving multimodal transport infrastructure and reducing transportation costs between the East and West. Security crises in the Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s war against Ukraine have highlighted the vulnerabilities of maritime and northern trade routes. Overland transit channels that diversify risk and shorten delivery times via the Middle Corridor have become an alternative for Eurasia. – Türkiye–PRC Railway Partnership Bolsters Middle Corridor – Jamestown
US – Saudi Arabia
(William F. Wechsler – Atlantic Council) The US is shifting from traditional nuclear nonproliferation efforts (“Plan A” and “Plan B”) to a new “Plan C” centered on deeper nuclear cooperation with regional allies. A new US–Saudi nuclear agreement exemplifies “Plan C” by potentially allowing Saudi domestic uranium enrichment while expanding US commercial involvement. This new plan may be the most practical path forward, given that the ongoing conflict with Iran has increased concerns about regional nuclear proliferation. – With a Saudi deal, the US begins ‘Plan C’ for nonproliferation in the Middle East – Atlantic Council
(The Soufan Center) As tensions escalate between the U.S. and Iran, the Trump administration has sought to raise the stakes, announcing a new nuclear agreement with longtime Iranian rival, Saudi Arabia. The potential for Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium in the near future raises concerns about who follows — whether other U.S. partners will demand the same terms, whether Russia and China will match them with partners of their own, or whether it will ignite a nuclear power race in the region. Adding to tensions in the region, the Iranian proxy group out of Yemen, the Houthis, declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers transiting through the Red Sea. The Trump administration most likely chose to announce the Saudi nuclear deal now because it recognizes the critical juncture this months-long conflict with Iran has reached, and Tehran has seemingly made a similar assessment of the moment by activating the Houthis. – Deal or No Deal? Saudi Nuclear Pact Hangs in Balance as Regional Conflict Expands – The Soufan Center
War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf
(The Soufan Center) Lebanon has become a central arena in the battle between the competing regional visions of the U.S. and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, making the first visit to Washington by a Lebanese President in 17 years, sought President Trump’s help to both disarm Hezbollah and force an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon. Coinciding with Aoun’s visit, U.S. officials announced the start of a pilot program under which the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will gradually take over positions in the south that were captured from Hezbollah and then vacated by Israel. Through diplomacy and regional operations, Iran is helping its chief ally, Lebanese Hezbollah, resist pressure from the U.S., Israel, and Lebanon to dismantle its militia wing. – Lebanon at the Fulcrum of the U.S.-Iran War – The Soufan Center
