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GLOBAL NEWS
Europe
(Ben Munster – Politico) The European Commission is betting that profit-hungry gas and oil companies will continue exporting into Europe next year, resisting calls by companies to rewrite new climate laws that they say will force them to seek other markets. Fossil fuel companies and member countries say new EU rules requiring them to track emissions of methane — a potent greenhouse gas — beginning in 2027 will be impossible to comply with in time, diverting vast chunks of the EU’s supply as exporters strain to avoid legal risk. But the EU executive doesn’t buy their rhetoric, and has resisted calls to reopen the legislation, which could give member countries and lawmakers an opportunity to radically weaken the law designed to mitigate one of the top causes of global warming. – EU bets fossil fuel lobby is crying wolf over supply shock warnings – POLITICO
Europe – China
(Mathieu Pollet – Politico) The European Commission slapped Chinese e-commerce giant AliExpress with a record €550 million fine on Monday for failing to stop the sale of illegal and harmful products on its platform. “There were a lot of counterfeit products, unsafe toys and dangerous cosmetics which stayed online for a very long time,” the EU’s tech chief Henna Virkkunen told reporters ahead of the announcement. “Products were still being recommended and advertised on the platform … even after it was already known that they did not meet the standards”. The penalty is the biggest ever imposed by the EU executive under the bloc’s rulebook policing online platforms, the Digital Services Act, which requires very large platforms, including AliExpress — owned by China’s tech giant Alibaba — to assess and mitigate the risks associated with the spread of illegal content and goods on their systems. – EU hits China’s Alibaba with €550M record fine over illegal products – POLITICO
Germany
(Nette Nöstlinger – Politico) The resignation of one of Friedrich Merz’s most important party stalwarts in Berlin is turning into an unexpected political gift for the German chancellor. Jens Spahn, parliamentary leader of Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), quit on Saturday after he and his husband admitted they used a surrogate mother in the U.S. to become parents, despite the practice being banned in Germany. While the departure initially looked like a setback, Merz moved immediately to turn the resignation to his advantage, floating the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle on Sunday. – Germany’s Merz turns resignation of party bigwig to his advantage – POLITICO
Nicaragua
(Reuters/CNN) Nicaragua’s long-serving president Daniel Ortega said the Central American country will no longer hold elections, eliminating the possibility of an electoral challenge when his term ends next year and further entrenching the rule he shares with his wife. Ortega, who has continuously held power since 2007 following an earlier presidential term in the 1980s, said the move will close off any path to the opposition, although he did not provide details about carrying out the ban. “There won’t be any more elections here for them to try to seize the government and seize power,” Ortega said in a speech on Sunday evening to commemorate the 1979 Sandinista revolution, in which Ortega helped overthrow the US-backed Anastasio Somoza dictatorship. “The days when parties backed by the Yankees (United States) and the Somocistas would return to power are over – never again,” he added, in the 80-year-old’s first public appearance in two months. The US State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Trump administration has described the Ortega government as a dictatorship, and imposed sanctions on more than 2,350 Nicaraguan officials and their relatives. Nicaragua’s last election in 2021 was widely disputed after Ortega detained opponents and business leaders and criminalized dissent. – Nicaragua’s Ortega says ‘never again’ for elections after two decades in power | CNN
Russia – Ukraine
(UN News) Russian attacks and drone strikes killed at least two children and injured dozens more across Ukraine over recent days while severely damaging three critical aid warehouses, UN agencies reported on Monday. The UN aid coordination agency, OCHA, said attacks over the past days killed and injured dozens in Kyiv, at a recreation site in the Odesa region and in Zaporizhzhia, where the media also reported that a drone strike destroyed a Red Cross vehicle. “The increasing toll of these attacks across the country is devastating,” Matthias Schmale, UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine said. – Ukraine: Deadly Russian attacks severely damage aid warehouses | UN News
UK
(Sam Blewett – Politico) Britain’s new Prime Minister Andy Burnham wasted no time Monday showing that there is much more to him than the friendly, folksy image he’s cultivated in public by swiftly banishing Keir Starmer’s closest allies from the Cabinet. The former mayor gave pure Westminster with his ruthless first acts in the job, a reminder that, as one of his big supporters told POLITICO last month, inside is a “cold-hearted lizard of a politician”. During a round of telephone sackings, Starmerites from Chancellor Rachel Reeves to Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy were demoted all the way to the backbenches. In their stead, Burnham is forming a top team spanning the mainstream wings of the party, including key northern allies and ministers who fell out with Starmer. – What Andy Burnham’s new-look Cabinet tells us about Britain’s direction – POLITICO
US
(Hans Nichols, Kate Santaliz – Axios) Senate Republicans are warming to the idea of using a third reconciliation package to replenish the Pentagon’s depleted weapons stocks. They still view reconciliation 3.0 as Plan B. For now, though, they’re willing to let House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attempt the legislative equivalent of a triple axel: passing a rule, a short-term government funding bill and a budget resolution to unlock reconciliation. “The tale of the tape is going to be what the House can do,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said. “Can the House pass it? I don’t think that’s a done deal. It’s not offset, so I think there’s going to be some troubled water there”. But Republican senators aren’t slamming the door on Johnson’s plan, looking to keep Senate options open. – Senate Republicans eye third reconciliation bill for Iran war funding
(Josephine Walker – Axios) Sen. Darline Graham Nordone (R-S.C.) confirmed on Monday that she’s jumping into the GOP race for her late brother Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat. President Trump endorsed Nordone last week, giving her a boost ahead of the filing period for the seat, which opens Tuesday. “I’m in,” Nordone said when asked in a Fox News interview clip posted on X Monday. – Lindsey Graham’s sister Nordone runs for his senate seat with Trump’s endorsement
US – Canada
(Courtenay Brown – Axios) The Trump administration said Monday that it will impose an additional 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods — including hockey sticks, wine and cement — accusing Canada of discriminating against U.S. exports. The move ratchets up tensions in an increasingly bitter trade dispute between two of the world’s closest economic partners. The tariffs, which take effect next month, will be imposed under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 — a never-before-used authority. The duties cover roughly $20 billion in annual Canadian imports. – Trump to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, escalating trade war
War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) Lebanese army troops began deploying in the southern Lebanese town of Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh on Tuesday after Israeli forces withdrew from the area, a senior Lebanese security official said, in line with a US-brokered plan. The plan foresees Lebanese army troops confiscating weapons from the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group in parts of southern Lebanon and phased withdrawals of Israeli troops. The Israeli military said on Monday that the plan, dubbed the pilot zone program, has begun. It had no immediate comment on Tuesday. – Lebanese army deploys in southern town after Israeli withdrawal, official says
(Al Arabiya) The US military said in a statement Tuesday morning that it finished its latest round of strikes on Iran, saying it hit Iranian military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, maritime capabilities and air defense systems. The US Central Command made the announcement in a post on social media website X. – US military completes its latest strikes on Iran, marking 10th successive night of attacks
(Al Arabiya) Vessel crossings via the Strait of Hormuz dropped further at the start of the week, shipping data showed, as caution grew following a fresh exchange of attacks between the United States and Iran. A total of four commodity vessels crossed the strait on Monday, mostly on the Iranian route, down from seven the previous day, Kpler data showed. – Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings extend slide on fresh US-Iran attacks
(Al Arabiya) The US State Department on Monday issued an alert urging American citizens around the world to “exercise increased caution” over the war with Iran. The alert said that “due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation.” – US issues ‘worldwide caution’ alert for citizens over Mideast tensions
(Al Arabiya) ASEAN foreign ministers expressed serious concern on Tuesday about the rapidly evolving conflict in the Middle East, calling for restraint and the avoidance of acts that further aggravate the situation. The developments severely undermine ongoing efforts by key mediators and diminish prospects for a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy, the ministers added in a statement. – ASEAN ministers voice serious concern over Middle East situation
(Barak Ravid – Axios) President Trump is nearing a decisive fork in the Iran war, with U.S. and Israeli officials envisioning only two viable endgames. Option 1: Pursue a new 10-day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Option 2: Launch a massive joint military campaign with Israel to force Tehran’s capitulation. Trump hasn’t made a decision yet. But officials believe the next few days will determine which path prevails — with little room left for the grinding, open-ended conflict now paralyzing the Gulf. Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators have presented the U.S. and Iran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, two regional sources with direct knowledge of the effort told Axios. – Iran mediators push new ceasefire as Trump eyes all-out war
(UN News) As the United States and Iran trade deadly attacks for a second week, the UN continues to call for de-escalation while highlighting the devastation caused to civilians and critical infrastructure across the Middle East. “We are indeed concerned by a resurgence of hostilities and renewed escalation across much of the region,” UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said on Monday in New York, stressing that “immediate de-escalation is essential”. He noted that “as in any conflict, the protection of civilians and civilian objects is critical,” and the vital infrastructure they rely on to survive – including hospitals and water supplies – must be spared. “All parties must respect their obligations under international humanitarian law, including the principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution,” he said. – Middle East: Civilians again under fire as US-Iran strikes continue | UN News
Yemen
(UN News) Thousands of people in some of Yemen’s most conflict-affected communities are receiving lifesaving health care closer to home, thanks to funding from the UN aid coordination office (OCHA) through the Yemen Humanitarian Fund. The support, implemented by the World Health Organization (WHO), has expanded access to emergency surgery, maternal and child health services, outbreak response and treatment for chronic diseases in four hard-to-reach districts where years of conflict have left health systems severely weakened. More than 42,000 people, including internally displaced families, women, children and people living with chronic illnesses, have benefited from the year-long initiative in Abyan, Al Bayda, Al Husha and Far’ Al Udayn. – Health response brings lifesaving care closer to thousands in Yemen | UN News
Tech World, Cybersecurity, and Surveillance
(Jeannie Salo – Atlantic Council) As the United States approaches midterm elections, politicians from both parties are tapping into the grassroots backlash against new data center builds. As a nationwide protest was being planned for this weekend, Republican governors in Montana, Wyoming, and Missouri joined a White House-brokered Ratepayer Protection Pledge committing data center developers to cover their fair share of energy, water, and grid costs. New York Governor Kathy Hochul went further, signing the nation’s first statewide moratorium on new large-scale data center permits while regulators spend up to a year developing stronger ratepayer and environmental standards—the most consequential policy response yet to community backlash. Media coverage has exploded. The result: digital infrastructure is now visible, controversial, and ripe for weaponization that could hurt US leadership in AI and jeopardize the economic benefits the technology would confer to communities for generations. – Backlash against data centers could cost the US its AI edge – Atlantic Council
(Alessandro Mascellino – Infosecurity Magazine) A crypter service used by multiple unrelated cyber-criminal groups has been documented cloaking commodity malware with process ghosting, kernel-driver abuse and more than 90 mix-and-match encryption routines. According to new research from Proofpoint published on July 20, the crypter, marketed as Cruciferra, was first offered for sale on the Exploit forum in autumn 2025 and now underpins dozens of campaigns delivering AsyncRAT, Agent Tesla, Remcos, XWorm, ValleyRAT and Snake Keylogger. Tiered access runs from $450 to $2,000 a month. Proofpoint identified both production and apparent testing samples, suggesting active development. On dark web forums, Cruciferra calls itself “the underground’s most lethal crypter.” – Cruciferra Crypter Uses Process Ghosting to Evade Detection – Infosecurity Magazine
(Alessandro Mascellino – Infosecurity Magazine) The agentic operator documented as the first ransomware campaign run end-to-end by a large language model (LLM) has returned with a purpose-built locker designed to destroy trained AI model artifacts. According to new research from the Sysdig Threat Research Team (TRT) published one July 20, JadePuffer re-entered the same Langflow instance it hit in its earlier campaign and staged ENCFORGE, a UPX-packed Go ransomware binary that targets roughly 180 file extensions across the modern machine learning stack. The payload’s targeting is deliberate rather than opportunistic. Named formats include PyTorch and TensorFlow checkpoints, HuggingFace SafeTensors weights, llama.cpp GGUF quantized models, FAISS vector indices, Apache Parquet and TFRecord training datasets and NumPy arrays. – JadePuffer Returns With Ransomware Designed to Wipe AI Models – Infosecurity Magazine
(Beth Maundrill – Infosecurity Magazine) A newly identified Windows malware sample abuses Microsoft Graph API to transform a compromised Microsoft 365 calendar into a covert two-way command and control (C2) channel. Researchers at Group-IB dubbed the highly sophisticated malware sample HollowGraph and attributed it, with high confidence, to the Cavern backdoor framework. Analysis by Group-IB found that the HollowGraph attack is highly targeted and focuses on Israeli entities. This is because the compromised mailbox identified was associated with an Israeli organization. In addition, the malware files uploaded were from Israel and files associated with the broader Cavern framework were also uploaded from Israel. – New HollowGraph Malware Hijacks Microsoft 365 Calendars for Covert C2 – Infosecurity Magazine
ANALYSES FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS
Germany – China
(Jessie Yin – Atlantic Council) At a speech in Cologne last Monday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed his concerns about the undervaluation of China’s renminbi. Merz argued that the European Union (EU) could never win against a competitor that artificially manipulates its currency and urged China to “allow its own currency to float freely, including in the context of competition in the capital markets.” This isn’t the first time that Merz has raised the issue of China’s currency policies, but his remarks are striking because they mark a departure from Berlin’s unwillingness to publicly challenge Beijing on its trade behavior. Germany is the latest major EU member state to question the bloc’s massive trade imbalance with China. On June 19—following pressure from Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands—the European Council called on the Commission to address “global macroeconomic imbalances” and consider policy responses to China’s export glut. Since the beginning of June, the EU has initiated nine additional anti-dumping investigations into products imported from China. Apparently, China’s flood of redirected exports has finally tipped the political balance in Germany, pushing Berlin toward closer coordination with Brussels. After running a trade surplus with China for years, Germany is now experiencing the persistent trade deficits that much of the rest of Western Europe has faced since China’s rise as the world’s factory. But the EU will need to proceed strategically. After all, Beijing could use its expanding economic statecraft toolkit to complicate investigations, delay enforcement, and undermine the evidence needed to justify anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties. – Germany is finally waking up to the China challenge. And Beijing is gearing up to respond – Atlantic Council
War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf
(Allison Minor – Atlantic Council) The Houthis have announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening to take millions more barrels per day of oil off the market at a time when global oil prices are already surging. Perhaps the biggest threat is whether the Houthis can and will move beyond harassing shipping to successfully strike the Saudi city of Yanbu, a major export hub for oil. The threatened blockade may be a pressure tactic to win concessions from Riyadh or the opening move in a renewed Yemen war, with major implications for Gulf stability and global energy markets. – The Houthis just announced a blockade on Saudi Arabia. What does it mean for the global economy? – Atlantic Council
(The Soufan Center) President Trump is increasing pressure on Iran to return to negotiations by expanding U.S airstrikes to civilian infrastructure, particularly bridges that connect Iran’s Persian Gulf coastline to its major cities, but Iran’s continuing lethal missile barrages call U.S. strategy into question. In an effort to pressure the U.S. to accede to its demands to control the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is not only making maximum use of its missile technology, but it is also escalating horizontally, targeting Gulf state infrastructure and directing its non-state allies to join its attacks. Iranian leaders have given the Houthis in Yemen a green light to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another key energy chokepoint, to increase pressure on energy markets and the global economy. The Arab Gulf states support de-escalation, but reports indicate that the United Arab Emirates and some of the other Arab Gulf states have quietly conducted some of their own strikes on Iranian targets. – The U.S.-Iran War Escalates and Expands Horizontally – The Soufan Center
