Does Russia Still Matter in Syria?

(Crisis Group) As Syria’s new leadership has transformed the country’s international relations, it has maintained ties with Russia, albeit at a lower level than the previous government. To many observers, this choice has been surprising. Moscow was a key supporter of the former regime led by Bashar al-Assad – indeed, he has taken refuge in Russia – and Russian President Vladimir Putin wielded tremendous influence in Syria during its fourteen-year civil war. Under President Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria has severed ties to the former regime’s other main backers – Iran and Hizbollah – while quickly establishing positive relations with Türkiye, the Arab Gulf states, the U.S. and Europe. Yet even amid this dramatic geopolitical pivot, Syria has retained constructive links with Russia: al-Sharaa has already visited Putin in Moscow twice (in October 2025 and January 2026) and has thus far allowed Russia to keep its main military bases – the Tartous naval facility and the Hmeimim air base – on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. Several factors inform Damascus’s calculations: Russia’s shift in approach during the rebel offensive that overthrew Assad; practical ramifications of the Kremlin’s decades-long support for the Syrian military; Russia’s continued importance to Syria’s economy; and Russia’s veto power in the UN Security Council. Syria’s new Western partners have thus far largely refrained from pressing Damascus to reduce engagement with Russia, but the issue remains sensitive. For example, Republicans in the U.S. Congress recently added an amendment to key defence legislation requiring the Pentagon to report on its efforts to “work with the new Syrian government to reduce Russian influence in Syria or secure the departure of Russian forces from Hmeimim and Tartous”. As al-Sharaa attempts to put his nation on a firmer footing, one of his challenges will be to manage Moscow’s lingering influence on his own terms. A distinct pattern has emerged: al-Sharaa has scaled back Russia’s role where alternatives exist, while re-engaging where Syria has no near-term substitute, particularly in regard to military equipment and oil supplies. More broadly, he has tried to avert costly confrontation, diversify Syria’s external partnerships and avoid the kind of dependence on outside powers that marked the Assad era. – Does Russia Still Matter in Syria? | International Crisis Group