Sources: Atlantic Council; Council on Foreign Relations; Defense News; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center; UN News
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) The results of Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections led to a win for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s peace-oriented and pro-Western agenda, with nearly half of the voters rejecting Russia-backed opposition forces advocating renewed alignment with Moscow. Post-election diplomacy signals continued momentum in the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s unprecedented congratulation to Pashinyan, renewed Armenia–Azerbaijan talks in Dilijan, and progress on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The central obstacle in the peace process remains Armenia’s constitutional preamble, which Azerbaijan says must be revised before a peace treaty is signed, which requires a constitutional referendum from the Armenian people. – Armenia’s Election Results Telling for Azerbaijan Peace Process – Jamestown
Central African Republic
(UN News) The Central African Republic (CAR) “has made remarkable and tangible progress towards lasting peace and security” in recent years, but security remains fragile in border areas, including with war-torn Sudan, UN Special Representative Valentine Rugwabiza told the Security Council on Tuesday. Ms. Rugwabiza commended the Central African people and Government for their “exceptional cooperation” with the UN mission in the country, MINUSCA, which she heads. She highlighted progress regarding implementation of the political and peace processes, effective extension of State authority and presence across the national territory, protection of civilians and historic elections held in December. They were the result of sustained efforts by the Central African authorities and people, with the support of MINUSCA,” she said, adding that “these gains must now be preserved and consolidated.” – Central African Republic peace gains must be preserved: UN envoy | UN News
Climate Action
(UN News) As a deadly heatwave continued to grip Europe on Tuesday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued an impassioned appeal for more ambitious global action on climate change caused by fossil fuels, to prevent irreversible damage. In a major keynote speech at London Climate Action Week, the UN chief called on AI firms to “come clean” on the full environmental impact of data centres in terms their carbon, water and land footprints. The Secretary-General also highlighted how the world’s dependence on oil is driving both the climate crisis and an energy sovereignty crunch, the latter linked to massive shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the war involving Iran, Israel and the United States. “These crises may seem separate but they share the same destructive origin: fossil fuels. And they demand the same answer: a fast, fair transition to clean energy and a surge in adaptation, resilience and climate justice for those already facing climate harm,” Mr. Guterres said, in a call for political leadership to push through global change akin to that required to phase out leaded gasoline and to ban chemicals that created a hole in the ozone layer. – Climate crisis: UN chief lays out solutions blueprint for clean energy transition | UN News
Crimes against UN peacekeepers
(UN News) The United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution on Tuesday that calls for accountability for crimes committed against UN peacekeepers. Resolution 2823 (2026) calls upon all relevant stakeholders to cooperate with the UN to facilitate the identification, investigation and prosecution of perpetrators without delay. The text was put forward by Denmark and Pakistan, two of the Council’s non-permanent members, and supported by more than 150 countries. – New Security Council resolution upholds accountability for attacks against peacekeepers | UN News
Defense
(Tom Kington – Defense News) An Italian M-346 jet trainer has controlled a Baykar Kizilelma drone in flight during a loyal wingman trial in Turkey. The Leonardo test jet flew alongside the Turkish drone at Baykar’s flight and test center in Çorlu, Leonardo said in a statement. The flight followed the signing of a drone cooperation deal between Italy’s Leonardo and Baykar last year, which envisaged the construction in Italy of Baykar drones with Leonardo systems on board. The flight test campaign in Turkey involved two Leonardo M-346 jets: a Leonardo owned M-346 Fighter Attack Variant, with an Italian Air Force trainer acting as chase aircraft – as well as the Kizilelma. Following an autonomous taxi and take-off, the Kizilelma autonomously linked to the M-346 using “an advanced radio frequency data exchange system” to synchronize data, Leonardo said. – Leonardo, Baykar tout in-flight control of Kizilelma drone from a M-346 jet trainer
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News) Ebola has been spreading at unprecedented speed in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), bringing risk and fear into people’s daily lives, UN humanitarians said on Tuesday. Dr Abdirahman Mahamud, Director, Health Emergency Alert and Response Operations at the World Health Organization (WHO), who returned last week from one month in the DRC, said that as of Monday, there are 1,048 confirmed cases reported, of which 267 deaths. “This is the largest number of confirmed cases in the first month of an Ebola disease outbreak in Africa,” he said. During the current outbreak due to the Bundibugyo species of Ebola virus, declared on 15 May, it only took 37 days to reach 250 deaths, Dr Mahamud explained, while in comparison, it took 78 days to reach that number in the 2014 and 2016 West Africa outbreak, and 130 days in the 2018-2019 outbreak. – Ebola in DR Congo: first month of outbreak sees record number of cases – UN humanitarians | UN News
Israel, Gaza, West Bank
(UN News) Israeli authorities and security forces have deliberately targeted Palestinian children, resulting in genocide and atrocity crimes in the Gaza Strip and war crimes in the West Bank, a UN independent commission of inquiry said in its latest report released on Tuesday. The evidence shows that Palestinian children have been deliberately targeted and killed by the Israeli security forces,” said Srinivasan Muralidhar, chair of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel. The report refers to the period following Hamas’ invasion of Israel in late 2023, which resulted in 1,200 deaths and 250 taken hostage, and the subsequent war Israel waged against Gaza that has to date killed more than 70,000 Palestinians in the besieged and occupied territory. “Even after the October 2025 ceasefire, children continue to be killed and seriously injured, with continued disregard by Israel for the ceasefire and for the protection owed to Palestinian children under international law,” he said. – Israel continues to commit genocide, atrocity crimes by deliberately targeting Palestinian children, UN independent commission finds | UN News
NATO
(Kristen Taylor and Matt Trunkey – Atlantic Council) This year’s NATO Summit takes place at a critical time for the Alliance. Political churn across the Atlantic is high, magnified by the recent US conflict with Iran, a country that shares a border with summit-host Turkey, and by US President Donald Trump’s frustrations that European allies did not do enough to back the US campaign in the region. This is the latest flashpoint in a broader pattern of transatlantic friction that includes territorial provocations over Greenland and public spats with European leaders such as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. All of it threatens to overshadow a gathering that should, by the numbers, be a moment to show genuine progress. With no marquee deliverable like last year’s 5 percent defense spending target for the Alliance to boast, NATO leadership will point to progress from European allies on three key issues: defense spending, defense industrial production, and aid to Ukraine. Expect the message from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to be that European allies are stepping up in meaningful ways. By almost every quantitative measure, Europe is doing more now than ever before. – How European NATO allies are stepping up, by the numbers – Atlantic Council
Orthodox Church
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Orthodox Church has two competing power centers: the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople and the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. The Constantinople church just achieved a small victory by enthroning a bishop as the resident head of an exarchate in Lithuania. The Orthodox Church in Lithuania is small, but these moves are another step in the demise of the Moscow Patriarchate’s influence over Orthodoxy in the former Soviet space and in its reduction to the status of a national church. The Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople also granted autocephaly to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in 2019, giving it legitimacy independent from Moscow. These developments set the stage for a new challenge to Moscow’s dominance of Orthodoxy in Belarus, a much larger church, as many of the Orthodox in Lithuania are Belarusian emigres and the Belarusian opposition backs precisely such a move. – Moscow Church’s Loss in Lithuania Threatens Its Survival in Belarus – Jamestown
Russia
(Alex Horobets – The Jamestown Foundation) In May, the Russian authorities placed Dmitry Semizorov, deputy general director of Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s largest tank manufacturer, and Alexander Gavrilov, general director of the Krasnoyarsk-based Krasmash plant, the sole producer of the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, in pre-trial detention. Criminal prosecutions of senior executives in the defense-industrial complex (DIC) have intensified in recent months, including cases tied to corruption schemes dating back more than a decade, reflecting a shift in priorities under a wartime economy. The arrests of executives at key companies create operational risks for military production, but authorities appear to have deemed this damage acceptable compared to the losses caused by corruption. The current wave of arrests does not yet constitute a systemic anti-corruption campaign. Arrests remain selective in nature, serving both as a tool for exerting pressure on defense-industry management and as a means of shifting responsibility for failed programs onto specific individuals. – Russia’s War Economy Driving Corruption Arrests in Defense Sector – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Kassie Corelli – The Jamestown Foundation) Amid the systemic crisis in Russia, evidence of elite divisions over the war against Ukraine is growing. Some Russian elites reportedly favor an end to the conflict, while hardline “hawks” continue to advocate escalation, retaining influence over Kremlin decision-making. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears increasingly insulated within a pro-war information environment, reinforcing expectations of victory. Support for the war among elites, hawks, and propagandists continues as they can only hold on to power, wealth, and freedom in the case of victory. Despite limited public discontent and stable regime support in Russia, Putin’s continued reliance on hawkish advisers raises the risk of further escalation, including deeper Belarusian involvement or heightened confrontation with the Baltic states. – Elites Could Push Putin to Either End the War or to Escalate It – Jamestown
Sudan
(UN News) A new UN human rights report issued on Tuesday details the brutality and scale of conflict-related sexual violence in Sudan since war erupted in April 2023 and its profound, long-term impacts on victims, families and communities. The UN human rights office, OHCHR, verified 546 incidents across 16 out of Sudan’s 18 states from the beginning of the conflict to mid-April of this year. At least 838 victims were affected and all but 15 were women and girls, but these figures represent only “the tip of the iceberg”. The report finds that sexual violence has spread alongside both the conflict and displacement routes and has been used consistently to terrorise and traumatise civilians. – Report details widespread use of sexual violence in Sudan war | UN News
Syria
(The Soufan Center) While the Islamic State (IS) remains territorially defeated in Iraq and Syria, emerging gaps in the region’s security landscape have incentivized the group to change its modus operandi. When looking quantitatively at IS operations, attack numbers have hit a historic low thus far in 2026, with two spikes in IS activity in February and June against a range of diverse targets. Lower levels of IS operations should not be interpreted as a sign that IS has been neutralized in Iraq and Syria, particularly in the wake of the mass escapes of IS families and detainees from Syrian detention facilities earlier this year, militia strikes near prisons holding IS fighters, and incidents of IS infiltration into Syrian security agencies. The U.S. withdrawal from Syria and impending withdrawal from Iraq by the end of 2026 represent a new chapter for the counter-ISIS campaign in the Middle East, offloading the majority of counterterrorism operations to local actors in the wake of region-wide instability and escalation from the U.S.-Iran war. – Not Resurgence, but Recalibration: ISIS in Syria – The Soufan Center
US (Artificial Intelligence)
(Matthew Ferren – Council on Foreign Relations) On June 11, Anthropic apologized after it emerged that its newest AI model, Fable 5, had been silently limiting responses to users suspected of attempting to replicate its technology. The model had also been criticized for refusing to respond to any cyber-related queries, redirecting users to less capable models instead. Two days later, President Donald Trump’s administration barred foreign nationals from accessing Anthropic’s two newest frontier models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, citing national security concerns. Unable to screen users by nationality, Anthropic announced it had disabled both models worldwide. The episode underscored how much both administration officials and frontier model developers now recognize the serious cybersecurity risks posed by advanced AI. For Anthropic’s founders, AI safety and security have long been central to their mission. For the White House, Mythos’s emergence earlier this year produced a remarkable about-face, forcing the administration to shift from an aggressive deregulatory agenda to one that is more risk-conscious. Although this shared focus on AI and cybersecurity is a positive development, over-indexing on risk and failing to align on a clear way forward could cause the United States to miss out on a generational opportunity to improve national cyber defenses. – The U.S. Is Losing the AI Credibility War—to Itself | Council on Foreign Relations
War on Iran – Asia
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) When mediators announced a memorandum of understanding on June 14 intended to bring the Iran war to a formal close within sixty days, Asian capitals breathed something close to relief. The Strait of Hormuz, which had been largely shut to shipping since late February, seems to be slowly reopening, and oil prices have retreated from their crisis peaks. But relief is not the same as recovery, and the damage the conflict has inflicted on Asian economies—on growth, household budgets, and government finances—is neither minor nor quickly reversible. The numbers are stark. The Asian Development Bank forecasts a drop in GDP growth of 0.7 percentage points in 2026 and inflation rising to 5.2 percent if oil prices hover around $96 per barrel for the year. The World Bank also has downgraded projections for Southeast Asia’s growth in 2026. For countries like the Philippines, which declared a national energy emergency in March after local diesel and petrol prices more than doubled, or Bangladesh, which has purchased liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot cargo at nearly three times normal benchmark prices, the pain has been acute and unevenly distributed. The poorest households—those most dependent on liquefied petroleum gas for cooking and kerosene for light—have been hit hardest. – The Iran War Turned Asia’s Fragile Energy Dependence Into an Emergency | Council on Foreign Relations
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