Global Think Tanks (sources: RUSI; The Soufan Center)
(The Soufan Center/War on Iran) The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran continues to expand in scope and complexity as all sides issue new red lines and Iran demands constraints on Israel on several regional fronts. President Trump is trying to deny his wartime partner, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a veto over U.S. terms for a settlement with Tehran. Iranian leaders no longer view their regional allies as instruments of deterrence and power projection, but as ideological partners that Tehran must protect from Israel and the U.S. Although cautious not to break sharply with Trump, Netanyahu views Hezbollah as an existential threat to northern Israel and will continue to combat the group despite formal ceasefire agreements. – Iran War Re-Ignites and Expands, Linking Multiple Fronts – The Soufan Center
(The Soufan Center/UMSCA, US, Canada, Mexico) The upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), planned for July 1, has emerged as a political and economic test of the trilateral relationship of North America’s largest economies, amidst strained relations between the U.S. and Canada. The review comes amidst the continued expansion of competition with China, persistent supply chain disruptions, and shifting alliances within the geopolitical theater. Canada’s shift reflects a growing consensus amongst Canadian policymakers that the U.S. has become a less predictable and reliable partner, incentivizing the country to carve its own new path with new foreign partners. Canada’s absence in trade talks will likely reinforce its position to continue reducing its reliance — both economically and militarily — on the U.S. and pursue diversification of both commercial and security ties with actors both in the Americas and further abroad, marking a new chapter in Canadian foreign policy. – USMCA Review Tests North American Trade Amid Growing U.S.-Canada Frictions – The Soufan Center
(Ismet Fatih Čančar – RUSI/Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska) When Péter Magyar won Hungary’s national elections on 12 April, Europe breathed a sigh of relief. After 16 years in power, Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz government suffered a decisive defeat. Magyar’s Tisza Party secured 138 of 199 parliamentary seats, delivering a result that resonated far beyond Hungary itself. From Berlin to Kyiv, the outcome was seen as a potential turning point: the end of Europe’s foremost laboratory of illiberalism and, with it, the prospect of renewed EU cohesion and more unified decision-making at a moment of mounting geopolitical pressure on the continent. However, Orbán’s defeat represents more than a setback for Europe’s illiberal right. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Hungarian leader served as one of the most influential external patrons of authoritarian and Kremlin-aligned actors in Republika Srpska (RS), one of the country’s two entities established under the Dayton Agreement. Through political backing, economic ties and diplomatic shielding within the EU, Budapest became an important pillar sustaining the region’s secessionist and destabilising currents. – The End of Orbánism? Bosnia, Magyar and Europe’s Strategic Credibility | Royal United Services Institute
(Joseph Jarnecki – RUSI/Europe, Cloud, Artificial Intelligence) On 3 June, the European Commission presented its European Technological Sovereignty Package, a highly anticipated set of measures billed as a generational effort to address Europe’s reliance on foreign technology. The package answers the 2024 Draghi Report which called for a reduction in foreign dependence and increased competitiveness to achieve European prosperity and security in a digital age. The Commission’s tech sovereignty package consists of four instruments: two pieces of legislation – the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) and the Chips Act 2.0 – and two strategic documents, the Open Source Strategy and Strategic Roadmap for Digitalisation and AI in Energy. Altogether, an ambitious set of proposals. If enacted, the package will reshape how Europe builds, buys and trusts its digital infrastructure. How far it goes will be decided in the negotiations ahead, at the European Parliament and among member states. – Europe Means Business on Cloud and AI Sovereignty | Royal United Services Institute
Global News
(Sebastian Sprenger – Defense News/Germany, Spain) German and Spanish companies involved the now-defunct Future Combat Air System program are appealing to their respective governments to keep funding sixth-generation fighter jet expertise gained under the developmental effort. Separate statements to that effect published Thursday by the lead companies of both nations, Airbus and Indra, come as news broke this week that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron had decided to drop the sixth-generation fighter jet segment of FCAS. – German, Spanish FCAS companies rally to preserve breakthrough fighter tech
(J.D. Simkins – Defense News/US, Australia, AUKUS) The U.S. Navy has established a naval support activity in Western Australia, the service announced, the latest move designed to enhance security cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Stood up on May 30, NSA Stirling — part of the Pillar I segment of the trilateral AUKUS pact — will provide “services and programs for U.S. service members, civilian personnel, contractors and their families” assigned to Submarine Rotational Force–West, according to a service release. – US Navy stands up naval support activity in Western Australia
(Ljudmila Cvetkovic and Jovana Krstic – RFE RL/Serbia, Russia, Europe) Despite warnings from the EU, Serbia’s government has granted citizenship to four times as many Russian nationals as to all other foreign citizens combined this year — including individuals under international sanctions, an RFE/RL investigation has found. Serbia grants citizenship through an expedited “national interest” procedure — a practice that could threaten the country’s visa-free access to the Schengen Area and Belgrade’s EU accession prospects. Among those who have benefited from this fast-track procedure is Valery Kazikayev, who has been under US sanctions since April 2023 over business links to Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov. – Serbia Fast-Tracks Citizenship For Sanctioned Russians, Defying EU Warnings
(RFE RL’s Kosovo Service/Albania, Iran, US) Protests in Albania over a proposed luxury resort linked to US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, have unexpectedly morphed into a very public brawl between Albania and Iran. Thousands of Albanians have taken to the streets in recent days to protest the start of construction for the $1.6 billion resort in a once-protected flamingo wetland made possible after the government fast-tracked building permits and updated environmental laws to allow five-star hotels in protected zones. Amid the unrest — dubbed the Flamingo Revolution for the pink birds that flock to the remote stretch of Balkan coast — Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama fired the first shot, accusing Tehran of being involved in a “hybrid war” of disinformation by amplifying a conspiracy theory: that the resort is actually a cover to resettle Palestinians from Gaza onto Albanian soil. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei fired back on X, telling Rama to “calm down,” accusing him of selling out Albania’s sovereignty — and quoting Albanian protest slogans such as “No to corruption” and “Rama goes” in their original language. – Tehran And Tirana Brawl Amid Flamingo Revolution
(Mike Eckel – RFE RL/US, Russia) A Russian woman who pleaded guilty to lying about her contacts with Russia’s main intelligence agency — and was later accused of sending drunken harassing messages to the FBI — was set to be sentenced in a Manhattan federal court. US prosecutors have asked that Nomma Zarubina be sentenced to at least 18 months in prison when US Judge Laura Swain issues her final decision on June 11. Zarubina’s defense lawyers have requested she receive no more additional time in custody. – Woman Linked To Russian Security Service Faces Sentencing
(Reuters-Al Arabiya/US) The Republican-controlled US House of Representatives on Thursday rejected a short-term extension of foreign surveillance powers sought by President Donald Trump in an effort to bypass a political standoff over his selection of an inexperienced loyalist to serve as the top US spy chief. With surveillance authority due to expire at midnight on Friday, the House voted 218 to 198 to reject a measure that would have extended the spying powers until July 2. Nineteen Republicans joined most Democrats to oppose the measure. – US House rejects short-term FISA extension as expiration looms
(Reuters-Al Arabiya/Lebanon, UN) UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday that all parties must work toward a diplomatic settlement that fully respects the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Lebanon. – UN chief says Lebanon needs ceasefire and respect for sovereignty
(AFP-Al Arabiya/Turkey, Israel) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Benjamin Netanyahu of “following the path of Hitler” on Thursday after the Israeli leader alleged he was an “antisemitic dictator” who had committed a “genocide” against the Kurds. The relationship between Israel and Turkey has nosedived since the Gaza war started in October 2023, with the pair regularly trading allegations of genocide and public insults. – Turkey’s Erdogan, Israel’s Netanyahu trade genocide barbs
(The Associated Press-Al Arabiya/Sudan) Sudanese paramilitary forces carried out drone strikes overnight in central Sudan, killing at least 15 people and wounding dozens, health officials said Thursday, as the use of unmanned aircraft becomes increasingly common in the more than three-year war in the African country. The attacks, which started late Wednesday, targeted various areas of the city of al-Obeid, including near an army position, according to two health officials at al-Obeid Hospital, which received the victims. More than 10 people were also wounded, some critically, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. – Sudanese paramilitary drone strikes kill at least 15 people in central region: Officials
(Al Arabiya/Pentagon, US) The Pentagon evacuated certain floors of the building on Thursday after a “hazardous materials” incident, officials told Al Arabiya English. The Arlington County Fire Department said its Hazardous Materials Team was operating at the Pentagon in support of the Pentagon Force Protection Agency’s (PFPA) Hazmat Team “during a hazardous materials incident.” – Pentagon locked down after ‘hazardous materials’ incident
(AFP-Al Arabiya/US, Iran) US forces struck and disabled another oil tanker attempting to bypass their blockade of Iranian ports this week, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Thursday. A US aircraft fired two Hellfire missiles into the engine room of the Guinea-Bissau flagged vessel “after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from US forces,” CENTCOM said. – US military says it struck tanker violating Iran port blockade
(Al Arabiya/US, Syria) Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa received an invitation to head to the United States later this month, where he met his counterpart Donald Trump last November, a diplomatic source told AFP on Thursday. The invitation comes after Trump had recently hinted at Syria’s willingness to intervene against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Syrian president receives invitation to US mid-June: Diplomatic source
(AFP-Al Arabiya/US, Iran) US President Donald Trump vowed fresh strikes on Iran Thursday and promised to take the country’s key oil infrastructure, in what would be a major escalation in the war with Iran. “The United States will be hitting Iran… VERY HARD TONIGHT,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social network. – Trump vows to take Iran oil terminals, launch new strikes
(Reuters-Al Arabiya/Russia, Ukraine, UK, France, Germany) Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin met the ambassadors of France, Germany and Britain in Moscow on Thursday and told them their countries were pursuing a “destructive policy” toward the Ukraine war. The French ambassador, Nicolas de Riviere, told reporters outside the Foreign Ministry building the trio had had a “good discussion” with Galuzin and would release a statement later. – Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine war with French, German and British ambassadors
(Reuters-Al Arabiya/Russia, Italy, Ukraine, Europe) European allies of Ukraine should appoint a single representative for talks with Russia to end the war, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told lawmakers on Thursday, saying smaller groups of nations cannot represent the entire bloc. On Sunday, the leaders of Britain, France and Germany — heading an informal security alliance called the E3 — met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and said they supported Kyiv’s proposal for talks with Russia to secure a ceasefire. – Italy PM calls for single EU voice in Russia talks, questions smaller formats
(The Associated Press-Al Arabiya/UK) UK Defense Secretary John Healey unexpectedly resigned on Thursday, saying the government isn’t willing to spend enough on the military at a time of “rising threats.”. The resignation is another blow to embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is already facing demands from Labour colleagues to step down. – UK defense secretary quits, says government isn’t willing to spend enough on military
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