Iran Update Special Report, June 9, 2026

(Institute for the Study of War) The Iranian regime is attempting to use calibrated force in an attempt to extract concessions from the United States without triggering a full-scale US response. Iran has likely designed this new approach based on an assessment that the United States does not want to return to war. – Iran is using force against US forces near the Strait of Hormuz, likely in an effort to deter US forces from operating in the Strait of Hormuz for any reason. An Iranian drone downed a US Army AH-64 Apache gunship near the coast of Oman on June 8. This use of force is designed to achieve the Iranian war aim of asserting its control over the strait. – US President Donald Trump emphasized that the United States must respond to the Iranian attack. ISW-CTP is monitoring reports of a “proportional” US response as of 5:50 PM ET on June 9. ISW-CTP will provide more details on the US response in its June 10 morning thread and evening update. – The Houthis continue to threaten to restrict commercial shipping in the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, but they have not yet conducted attacks to realize these threats. – Hezbollah and Iran appear not to have effectively deterred Israel from striking Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. – Iran Update Special Report, June 9, 2026 | ISW