How the Iran conflict is reshaping sanctioned crude oil flows

(Atlantic Council) The continued use of shadow fleet and transshipment networks allow sanctioned countries to bypass energy sanctions, underscoring the need for stronger and more unified enforcement. Intensifying competition among sanctioned oil exporters for a shrinking pool of buyers drove steep discounts in 2025, enabling China to save up to $28.8 million per day on imports at peak discount levels. US sanctions waivers, rising oil prices, and supply shortages following the conflict in Iran have boosted demand for Russian crude. Since the waivers were issued, Russia has supplied approximately 300 million barrels to the international market as of May 11, with India re-emerging as a major importer and Southeast Asia emerging as a new destination for Russian crude. – Energy Sanctions Dashboard – Atlantic Council