Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2026

(Institute for the Study of War) Russian and Ukrainian reporting appears to confirm battlefield reporting that Ukrainian forces have achieved a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield. Ukraine’s drone advantage is likely contributing to the stalling of Russian advances and recent Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian forces’ increasing strikes against Russian air defense systems and drone interception rates have facilitated recent Ukrainian battlefield successes. Unverified reporting suggests that the Kremlin privately acknowledges Ukraine’s upper hand in drone operations on the battlefield and defense industrial base (DIB) production. The Kremlin is deploying Russian military vessels to escort Russian sanctions-evading tankers through the English Channel. Russian forces continue to conduct covert submarine operations near British undersea fiber-optic cables and pipelines in the North Atlantic Ocean. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian-controlled bridge in occupied Kherson Oblast, possibly for the first time in combat history. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction. Russian forces launched 119 drones against Ukraine. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2026 | ISW