Understanding Iran’s Strategy—Then, Now, and Next

(J. Dana Stusterv – Lawfare) The more the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign attempts to change the Iranian regime, the more it looks like it will stay the same. Though strikes have killed the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and many of the senior security officials in the country, including Ali Larijani, who was tasked before the war with shepherding the country through the anticipated crisis, the government of Iran remains intact. The selection of Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as the new supreme leader demonstrates this continuity. President Trump has gone from telling Iranians to “take over your government” to quietly “testing” negotiations with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—the speaker of the parliament and a moderate, but hardly an anti-establishment figure. When this war ends, the regime established in the 1979 Islamic Revolution is likely to remain. So it is more important than ever to attempt to understand its motivations and strategy. Vali Nasr’s “Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History” is a useful guide. – Understanding Iran’s Strategy—Then, Now, and Next | Lawfare