How Good is Our Intelligence on Iran?

(Marc Polymeropoulos and Jeremy Hurewitz – Just Security) If you are an analyst at a U.S. or Israeli intelligence agency summarizing the status of the conflict with Iran, a report would look, on balance, rather grim. First, the Islamic Regime has not fallen, which means the long-term threats it poses to its population and the world remain. More specifically, hard line elements appear to remain in control according to well-sourced Iranian diaspora reporting, and they are still fighting with daily ballistic missile and drone attacks against U.S. interests in region, Israel, and the Gulf states. The Iranian leadership almost certainly feels that it is in a relatively solid position strategically as the energy crisis they have created through attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz is causing global economic disruptions. While the Iranian leadership and IRGC knows that their conventional military has been seriously degraded, they reportedly still retain roughly half of their missile launchers, roughly half of their drones, and, even more importantly, can turn to Russia and China to rebuild these capabilities over time. The resumption and potential acceleration of their nuclear program is still a possibility as their enriched uranium lies underground and is likely retrievable. The U.S. special operations command has reportedly moved requisite forces in to the region for such an operation given the threat. However, U.S. casualties almost certainly would be significant, and it is unclear if President Trump would take such a risky decision given the potentially enormous costs and political blowback that could ensue. – How Good is Our Intelligence on Iran?