War in Iran/Middle East/Gulf and beyond
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) The newest edition of the Economist puts it this way: “The conflict ravaging the Middle East may best be understood as two parallel wars. One is the campaign of American and Israeli air strikes against the Iranian regime; the other is Iran’s war on the global economy.”. If US President Donald Trump fails to address both simultaneously and successfully, he risks turning what has thus far been a tactical military success into a strategic failure with longer-term consequences for international stability. – Trump is fighting two wars with Iran. He needs to win both. – Atlantic Council
(Soufan Center) Yesterday, President Trump told reporters that he had been negotiating with Iranian officials, yet Iranian sources denied that they had any direct talks with the President. The U.S. government’s underlying goals and objectives have remained vague with no clear off-ramp, while the Iranian regime has fought back, remained intact, and has seemingly moved toward negotiations. Until Washington can re-frame the conflict in Iran as a victory for the U.S., not a win for the Regime, it remains to be seen whether the U.S. would seriously engage in formal negotiations. Some speculated that Trump is merely using the idea of talks to buy time before U.S Marines land in the region, which is expected by Friday. – Competing Narratives: Understanding All Sides’ Approach to the War in Iran – The Soufan Center
(Soufan Center) Beyond significantly challenging the U.S. and Israeli military campaign, Iran’s ability to restrict commercial traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz chokepoint sets a new normal for the global energy market and economy. Trump is threatening to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure unless Tehran immediately allows full freedom of navigation through the Strait. U.S. allies have pledged to help protect the Strait, but several countries have instead struck agreements with Iran to allow their energy shipments safe passage. The U.S. military’s options to open the Strait by force are fraught with risk and would not necessarily eliminate Iran’s ability to use unconventional tactics to threaten traffic through the waterway. – One Battle After Another: No Easy Way for the U.S. to Open the Strait of Hormuz – The Soufan Center
(Cassidy Nelson – RUSI) The intensifying military campaign by the US and Israel has rightly focused the world’s attention on nuclear proliferation, regional escalation and the potential for humanitarian catastrophe. But there is another threat – less visible and potentially more dangerous – that demands immediate international attention: what happens to a country’s biological weapons programme when the state behind it is involved in active conflict? For decades, Western intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran has pursued an offensive biological weapons capability. Despite being an early signatory to the Biological Weapons Convention – ratifying it six years before the 1979 revolution – the programme is believed to have accelerated dramatically in the late 1980s, after Iran suffered devastating chemical attacks during the Iran-Iraq War. The lesson Iranian leadership drew then was clear: never again would the country accept an asymmetry in unconventional capabilities. What followed, according to successive public intelligence assessments going back decades, was a sustained effort to develop biological agents under the cover of legitimate civilian research. – The Threat No One is Talking About in Iran | Royal United Services Institute
Diego Garcia
(Mariel Ferragamo, Nathan Schoonover – Atlantic Council) In the central Indian Ocean, 1,000 miles south of the southern tip of India—and around 5,800 miles southeast of the United Kingdom (UK)—lies the Chagos Archipelago, a small group of roughly sixty islands designated as the British Indian Ocean Territory since 1965. U.S. President Donald Trump has marked the cluster of islands as critical to U.S. foreign policy because of a joint U.S.-UK military base on the archipelago’s largest island, Diego Garcia. Since the Cold War era, the base has acted as a staging ground for deployments to the Middle East and East Africa, allowing the United States quicker access to these areas—which has become all the more important as the Trump administration plunges forward with the U.S. war with Iran. On March 20, Iran attempted to strike Diego Garcia with two intermediate ballistic-range missiles—more than 2,300 miles from its coast. While the attack was unsuccessful, it was the first-known targeting of the base and indicated that Iran is not limited to its self-imposed missile-range limit of 1,250 miles. The attempt revealed that Iran can attack further afield capitals across Africa, Asia, and Europe, a possibility that Tehran has previously diminished. (Diego Garcia and central Europe are about the same distance from Iran.) – Trump, Iran, and Diego Garcia: Inside the Fight Over a Remote Military Base | Council on Foreign Relations
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – Jamestown Foundation) The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) published a report on March 12 documenting democratic backsliding in Georgia since spring 2024, including violence against protesters, restrictions on civil society, and violations of freedom of expression. Georgian Dream’s response to the report was largely dismissive, with Speaker of the Georgian Parliament Shalva Papuashvili calling it “defamatory” and Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze calling it “complete nonsense.”. The report may mark a turning point in Western pressure on Georgian Dream, as it provides legal grounds for accountability, with the potential for an OSCE member state to refer a case to the International Criminal Court (ICC). – OSCE Report Highlights Georgia’s Violence and Political Repression – Jamestown
Global Imbalances
(Brad W. Setser – Council on Foreign Relations) The IMF’s standard analysis of global imbalances puts equal emphasis on the United States (too little saving), Europe (too little investment), and East Asia (too much saving). That analysis is now dated. East Asia’s surplus (correctly measured) has soared—and while it will dip with the new oil shock, that dip will be temporary if the oil shock isn’t sustained. Europe’s surplus (correctly measured) has almost disappeared, even before the oil shock. Europe may well need reforms to reduce internal barriers to commerce and increase investment, but the China shock (together with the Russian energy shock) has already wiped out the underlying goods surplus (setting aside US firms avoiding US corporate income tax through their Irish operations). The IMF’s overly balanced analysis ignores an uncomfortable fact that is clear in the numbers: China’s recent export success has come at Europe’s expense. That is clear from the Dutch Centraal Planbureau data on global trade volumes. – Time For the IMF to Stop Blaming the Victim | Council on Foreign Relations
North Korea
(Lami Kim – IISS) The final report of North Korea’s 9th Party Congress outlined ambitious plans to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into both its civilian and military sectors over the next five years. On the civilian side, the report stressed the urgent need to develop AI alongside energy and space technologies, describing them as core technologies underpinning advanced industrial development. For the military, it identified AI-enabled uninhabited attack systems as a key modernisation objective, alongside electronic-warfare and counterspace capabilities, while maintaining North Korea’s traditional emphasis on nuclear weapons. Pyongyang’s emphasis on AI is not new. North Korean media has repeatedly highlighted the potential impact of AI on both economic development and military modernisation, and its efforts to operationalise the technology. The regime has claimed that it has developed AI-equipped autonomous reconnaissance and attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and that its guided multiple rocket launchers incorporate AI-guidance systems. These developments reflect a recognition that its principal adversaries – the United States and South Korea – are increasingly integrating AI into their military operations and that North Korea cannot afford to fall behind in this emerging technological competition. – Assessing North Korea’s AI ambitions
Russia/Ukraine
(Pavel K. Baev – Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin believes negotiating an end to his war against Ukraine directly with the United States will maximize his chances of success. Putin’s understanding that Washington’s attention has shifted to Iran informs his perception that the “situational pause” could be indefinite. Kremlin narratives have long rejected European participation. Increasing diplomatic activism by actors linked to European Union initiatives and outreach by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, is gradually reshaping Russian expectations about negotiation formats that include Europe. Mounting Russian economic problems, battlefield stagnation, and declining public support for the war are compelling Russian elites to consider greater diplomatic engagement with Europe even as Moscow continues to frame European states as adversarial actors. – Moscow Reconsidering Europe’s Role in Ending War Against Ukraine – Jamestown
