War in Iran/Middle East/Gulf and beyond
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) As the war in Iran enters its third week, the most pressing challenge facing the United States is opening the Strait of Hormuz. In an effort to get maritime cargo moving again, President Donald Trump earlier this week called on NATO and other allies, as well as China, to help the United States secure the waterway. The initial response was not positive. Asian and European partners said something to the effect that this wasn’t their war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared, “To this day, there is no convincing plan for how this operation could succeed. Washington has not consulted us and did not say European assistance was necessary.” French President Emmanuel Macron was more blunt: “We are not party to the conflict.” Finnish president Alexander Stubb suggested that Europe offer military support in Iran in exchange for more assistance to Ukraine and ensuring any peace deal favors Kyiv, not Moscow. Stubb’s offer hasn’t gained much traction, at least for now. – Coalitions of the Willing and the Strait of Hormuz | Council on Foreign Relations
China
(Christopher Nye, Charles Sun – The Jamestown Foundation) A new equilibrium is emerging in state–business relations following the cessation of regulatory campaigns against the technology sector in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC). Private sector firms are increasingly pursuing “proactive alignment,” preemptively synchronizing their business models with state-directed strategic objectives before receiving explicit political directives to do so. State control over key resources constitutes the material foundation for proactive alignment. By enforcing commanding leverage over advanced computational infrastructure through mega-projects and directed subsidies, the Party-state renders comprehensive conformity a prerequisite for doing business in the PRC. Legacy platforms have pivoted their commercial core toward state-defined strategic priorities, but an ascendant artificial intelligence (AI) cohort operates “policy-native” architecture, prioritizing state alignment over profit maximization to avoid becoming political liabilities. – PRC Tech Firms Practice Proactive Alignment – Jamestown
China/Taiwan
(Brandon Tran, Gerui Zhang – The Jamestown Foundation) The purge of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission (CMC) likely stemmed from disagreements with Xi Jinping on People’s Liberation Army (PLA) force modernization and development, suggesting that the PLA may not be ready for a Taiwan contingency in 2027. Despite a loss in combat-tested leaders, Xi may still push the PLA to act in the medium term due to his advanced age and his desire to backfill key positions on the CMC, regardless of the PLA’s readiness. PLA gray zone activities around Taiwan will likely continue as they are seen as crucial “dress rehearsals” for a Taiwan contingency, notwithstanding leadership changes at the top. – After the Purge: Reassessing the Risk to Taiwan – Jamestown
(Markus Garlauskas with contributions from Drew Holliday, Adam Kozloski, Nicholas Takeuchi, and Paul Vebber – Atlantic Council) The Aquatic Tiger wargame explored how long-range autonomous underwater vehicles (LRAUVs) could help the US deter or counter Chinese military action against Taiwan. LRAUVs showed promise for pre-conflict surveillance, mine countermeasures, and swarming attacks in chokepoints, but showed vulnerabilities in the shallow, constricted waters of the Taiwan Strait. LRAUVs would be useful contributors—not decisive—if deployed in large numbers, with advance planning, and integrated into broader US and allied military operations. – Aquatic Tiger: How long-range submarine drones could play a role in a Taiwan conflict – Atlantic Council
Sri Lanka
(Phillip Cornell – Atlantic Council) Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical oil and gas artery—have triggered price spikes and shortages in Sri Lanka. The economic and social impacts are immediate—rising inflation, power outages, business closures, and agricultural disruption. Across South and Southeast Asia, countries face fuel shortages, rationing, and reduced industrial activity, while governments scramble to secure supply and curb demand. – Demand destruction has begun: What Sri Lanka reveals about the global energy crisis – Atlantic Council
