Facing Russian Hybrid Threats in Advance of Elections, Armenia Struggles to Maintain Pro-U.S. and EU Path

(Laura Thornton – Just Security) Armenians head to the polls on June 7 to elect all 101 members of its parliament, the National Assembly, at a time of intense regional and geopolitical uncertainty. A country long dependent on Russia for security guarantees and economic stability, the 2018 Velvet Revolution and the 2023 war in which Azerbaijan seized the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh have spun off new foreign policy alignments — and prospects — for the country. The government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has sought to turn around the 2023 loss by redoubling his pursuit of new ties with the European Union and the United States and by redefining Armenia’s relationship with powerful neighbors Azerbaijan and Turkey. He is seeking to finalize a peace agreement with Azerbaijan that the two sides agreed last year at the White House, and is discussing new border and trade deals with Turkey. In the first regular parliamentary election since the 2018 Velvet Revolution, Pashinyan’s ruling Civil Contract party faces a challenge from two oligarch-led opposition blocs that are closely tied to Russia. Many Armenians are undecided and dislike their options, according to polling, and describe the country’s political parties as personality-driven and scant on policy. However, one clear distinction between the political options is on the country’s future foreign alignment. The ruling party is running on “peace,” emphasizing the continuing negotiations with Azerbaijan and closer ties with the EU and the United States. Pashinyan and his supporters accuse the opposition of being puppets of Russia (more on that later). The main opposition blocs criticize the government’s peace agreement, claiming to have an alternative plan (though scant on details) and accuse the government of being under Azerbaijani and Turkish control. The main opposition blocs also do not support EU membership, arguing that the country is not ready. – Russia Aims at Armenia’s Pro-U.S. and EU Path in Election Year