After Chagos Deal, PRC Seeks to Alter Indian Ocean Balance

(Isaac Stone Fish – The Jamestown Foundation) Mauritius supports the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on virtually every geopolitical issue while receiving Chinese diplomatic and economic support for its own priorities, particularly over its claim to sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago. This allows Beijing to secure reliable political backing and a strategically positioned partner in the Indian Ocean at relatively low cost, strengthening its influence in a region where U.S. and Indian interests intersect. Beijing has built a substantial economic and institutional presence in Mauritius. Through a landmark 2019 free trade agreement, the first Beijing signed with an African state, and Chinese state-led investments, it has amassed long-term economic leverage and strategic access abroad. Huawei is the island’s primary partner for surveillance, connectivity, and digital infrastructure. Concentrating these partnerships under one vendor lowers technical barriers to potential data access or network exploitation. A May 2025 treaty that relinquished British sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius means that long-term operational certainty for the United States and United Kingdom, who jointly operate the Diego Garcia military base on the archipelago under a 99-year lease, now depends not only on legal provisions but also on Mauritius’s future strategic alignment. Beijing’s expanding port access across the Indian Ocean—including in Djibouti, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—increases the significance of Mauritius’s strategic alignment. Mauritius currently balances by relying on India for security cooperation. The durability of that balance will likely be challenged if PRC–India disputes escalate. – After Chagos Deal, PRC Seeks to Alter Indian Ocean Balance – Jamestown