The Entrenchment of Iran’s Security State

(Jesse Ramsdell – Just Security) Washington is quickly learning it will take more than a sustained bombing campaign to topple the Iranian regime, if that indeed remains a goal in the Trump administration’s war on the country. The regime is showing remarkable resilience, as seen in the election of the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, but also in defiant statements from Iranian officials indicating their intractability. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that Iran would keep fighting for as long as it takes, a sentiment that was reiterated in Mojtaba’s first official statement. Further, Ali Larijani, the Supreme National Security Council Secretary, directly threatened President Trump saying, “Watch out for yourself – lest you be eliminated” in what is perhaps the most brazen threat issued by an Iranian official since the outbreak of the war. Iran’s regime hardliners and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remain in power despite U.S. and Israeli strikes and Israel’s decapitation strategy to remove key leaders. The newly elected Supreme Leader, who is the son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, only reinforces this control. Whether the new supreme leader survives the war may not matter much for the sustainment of the regime. In fact, Mojtaba’s death may only further entrench the IRGC and hardliner’s control. According to Reuters, U.S. intelligence believes the regime is not at risk of collapse and maintains control over the Iranian people. Three key factors explain why the regime has held on and why it is increasingly likely to survive the war. The IRGC is taking an even greater role in the domestic affairs of the state, ensuring the structure of the regime stays in place. Meanwhile, Iran’s opposition remains fractured without a credible leader capable of challenging hardline officials. And as U.S. commitment to the war begins to waver, the regime’s path to survival may be as simple as waiting out Washington. – The Entrenchment of Iran’s Security State