Defeating Iran’s Strategy: Energy Security and the “Abraham Shield”

(Assaf Orion – The Washington Institute) Two strategies are currently competing in the Iran war. On one hand, the United States and Israel are focused on degrading Iran’s ability to threaten the region while promoting regime change. To this end, they are waging an overwhelming—but time-limited—combined campaign to decapitate the regime’s leadership and destroy its offensive capabilities, including nuclear assets, missiles, drones, naval forces, proxy terrorist elements, and the industries that could enable their reconstitution. In parallel, they seek to degrade the regime’s domestic oppressive apparatus—especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij, and various internal security forces—and encourage internal elements to overthrow the regime. On the other hand, Tehran is focused on surviving and maintaining its domestic security while simultaneously imposing high costs on its enemies, with the goal of ending the war on its terms, deterring future U.S.-Israeli attacks, and deterring neighbors from hosting American military forces. It has advanced this strategy by rapidly replacing officials killed by allied attacks, conducting missile and drone strikes throughout the region, and drawing foreign proxy forces into the fighting (mainly Iraqi militias and Lebanese Hezbollah so far). Most important, it is targeting the allies’ soft underbelly by disrupting the flow of energy from the region. Using a combination of verbal threats against ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, limited strikes on a few vessels, energy, and maritime infrastructure targets, and small-scale mine-laying, Iran has managed to raise energy prices and exert pressure on economies around the world—including in the United States, which is feeling the political effects of this economic pressure in the midst of an election year. How can Washington and Jerusalem defeat this Iranian strategy while advancing their own? The best way to start is by understanding the specific vulnerabilities Tehran is exploiting. – Defeating Iran’s Strategy: Energy Security and the “Abraham Shield” | The Washington Institute