(Julianna Bragg, Rebecca Falconer – Axios)
President Trump is positioning himself as a central architect of Iran’s post-war future, demanding ‘unconditional surrender’ on Friday.
The big picture: Trump is signaling ambitions that extend beyond military action into reshaping Iran’s political and economic order just as he did in Venezuela. But experts warn it’s not that simple.
- When asked for comment on three pledges Trump has made, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in an emailed statement Friday addressed his pledge to address spiking oil prices.
Here are three promises Trump has made on Iran thus far.
Choosing a successor
Trump acknowledged that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is the most likely successor — but Trump told Axios Thursday he opposes that outcome.
Between the lines: Srinjoy Bose, an associate professor of international relations at Australia’s University of New South Wales, tells Axios it “is an extension of his approach to international politics vis-à-vis Venezuela,” Gaza and his Board of Peace.
- It echoes the 1953 U.S.-backed coup that overthrew Iran’s democratically elected leader and installed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as shah until he was deposed in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Bose says.
- Daniel Schneiderman, director of global policy programs at Penn Washington, says, “The size, scope and scale of Iran’s military and also the way the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is endemic in everyday life” makes it very different from Venezuela.
- Tehran had a “long time to prepare” for war, and it’s unlikely there will be a “leadership transition that ultimately satisfies the White House,” says Schneiderman, a former Defense Department official in the Biden administration.
- “Although I’m sure part of the plan here is how do we get to good enough? That’s what they did in Venezuela … so what does that looks like in Iran? The political costs of getting to good enough after what’s been done is serious. Because for the Iranians, survival of the regime in some form is a win.”
Total immunity
Trump urged IRGC members, military and the police on Thursday to “lay down their arms” and assured them they’d be “perfectly safe with total immunity, or you’ll face absolutely guaranteed death.”
Reality check: There’s no guarantee that if Iranians take up arms against the regime, “which is what he is hoping,” they will be protected by Trump or the international community, Bose says.
- Schneiderman calls it “an important signal,” but adds, “there has to be real substance behind it.”
- “I just wonder how much meat there is below the surface,” he says.
Reducing oil prices
The administration has scrambled to keep gas prices down as the war spills over into a crucial shipping lane, with Trump offering “political risk insurance and guarantees” for energy tankers.
State of play: Trump said additional action to “dramatically increase the stability” of the Middle East, oil prices and stock markets is “imminent” without providing specifics.
- Though Trump often touts falling gas prices, volatility and rising energy costs could pose a political risk for Republicans ahead of the midterms.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday announced a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil, which India had stopped importing as part of a tariff deal.
Yes, but: Oil and gasoline prices rose Friday, with gas up nearly 11% since the war started.
- This is one of the “unintended strategic consequences of these decisions that you make to go to war,” Schneiderman says.
- “There are second- and third-order effects that a solid and sound planning process for a decision like the one to go to war with Iran would have accounted for.”
What they’re saying: “Thanks to President Trump’s leadership in his first term and current term, the United States remains the largest crude oil and natural gas producer in the world,” Leavitt said.
- His “entire energy team” has a “game plan” to keep oil prices stable throughout throughout the U.S. operation, per Leavitt’s statement.
- She pointed to Trump offering to insure energy tankers in the Middle East, escorting them through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary and said his administration would “tap into newfound oil markets in Venezuela.”
