Iran and beyond
(Al Arabiya) Saudi Arabia’s defense ministry announced on Thursday that the Kingdom intercepted and destroyed a number of cruise missiles and drones amid ongoing regional tension. – Saudi Arabia intercepts, destroys three cruise missiles, several drones
(Anna Borshchevskaya – The Kyiv Independent) If anyone was worried that Russia was going to intervene on behalf of its ally Iran in the new Middle East conflict, they need not be. Vladimir Putin’s response to the massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran — and even the Israeli strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s longtime Supreme Leader — was at best bland. He called the U.S. and Israeli strikes “cynical” and murderous, but issued neither threats, nor red lines, nor commitments to help Iran. To understand Putin’s restraint, consider his larger strategy. Russian leader sees no benefit to a futile challenge to the U.S. or Israeli militaries. And he has other priorities. This is not to say that there aren’t clear advantages to Putin’s patience. The ongoing crisis presents opportunities we know he will try to exploit. Putin can position himself as a vital part of any negotiations going forward. And then strengthen that perception by helping Tehran suppress protests and potentially raise the costs of U.S. involvement. Even without direct military support, Russia has already played a vital role in helping Iran. Russia has long provided Tehran with military cooperation. Iran increasingly relied on Russia in recent years to launch satellites into orbit, which helps Iran surveil military targets. Russia is also sharing real-time satellite intelligence and signal data with Iran to help track the movements of U.S. warships, according to recent reports. In the past, Iran retaliated against the U.S. with cyberattacks. Russia could help Iran do so again now. Russia has also helped Iran block communications by supplying electronic jamming technology. Reports also suggest Iran is likely using Russian electronic warfare systems. – In the Middle East, chaos is Putin’s new ally
(RFE RL) US and Israeli forces continued to strike against Iran, while the US Senate rejected a bid that would have limited President Donald Trump’s authority to continue military action against the Middle East country without congressional approval. Trump earlier on March 4 said any Iranian officials who seek to assume top positions to replace Iran’s fallen leaders “end up dead” and he vowed the United States and Israel will “continue forward” in the joint military campaign against the country. “We’re in a very strong position now, and their leadership is just rapidly going. Everybody that seems to want to be a leader, they end up dead,” Trump told a meeting with technology sector leaders at the White House on March 4. – Attacks On Iran Continue As US Senate Blocks Bid To Limit Trump’s War Authority
(Ana Faguy – BBC) A bipartisan resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump’s ability to wage war in Iran has failed in the US Senate, as the strikes continue. The war powers measure was rejected in a 53-47 vote largely along party lines. It would have halted US military action in Iran without congressional approval. Democrats argue that Trump has sidelined Congress and offered shifting reasons for the war. Most Republicans blocked the resolution, but some said they could change course if the war expands in the coming weeks. – US Senate vote fails to rein in Trump war powers on Iran
(Sean Mathews and Oscar Rickett – Middle East Eye) Tensions are rising between US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio over the US’s approach to the war on Iran, three former US officials and a senior regional official familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye. Rubio and Hegseth were described as “at each other’s throats” over the question of whether the US should deploy troops to Iran at Israel’s request, the sources told MEE. Hegseth is supportive of the position, while Rubio is deeply wary of entangling the US in a long war, the sources told MEE. The US has mainly confined its operations to air strikes and standoff strikes using cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, but CNN reported this week that the CIA has begun training and arming Kurdish fighters to operate in Iran. One Gulf official told MEE that US officials have discussed sending special operations teams into Iran to target senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials and people familiar with Iran’s nuclear programme. – Tensions soar as Hegseth and Rubio feud over US troops in Iran | Middle East Eye
(Sean Mathews – Middle East Eye) The US will begin using larger reserves of less-sophisticated weapons after assessing that Iranian air defences are degraded, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday. “More bombers, fighters are arriving just today. And now with complete control of the skies, we will be using 500-pound, 1,000-pound, and 2,000-pound GPS and laser-guided precision gravity bombs, which we have a nearly unlimited stockpile,” he said. The move comes after The Washington Post reported on Wednesday how the US is rapidly running through its stock of “precision weapons”. – US shifting from precision munitions to 2,000-pound bombs in Iran war, Hegseth says | Middle East Eye
(Sondos Asem – Middle East Eye) The day after the US and Israel launched their war on Iran, and the subsequent Iranian counterattack against US bases in the Gulf, Prime Minister Keir Starmer declared that the UK government would intervene in the conflict in two ways. First, by intercepting Iranian drones and missiles to protect states not previously involved in the conflict. And second, by allowing the US to use British bases for “specific and limited” defensive action against Iranian missile sites used to attack Gulf partners. In his speech on 1 March outlining the government’s position, Starmer explained that the only way to stop the threat from Iranian missiles “is to destroy the missiles at source, in their storage depots or the launchers which are used to fire the missiles”. He said that the UK would not join the US and Israel in their offensive strikes but would instead focus on “defensive actions”. – Is the UK’s intervention in Iran war legal? | Middle East Eye
(Saeed Al-Batati – Middle East Eye) Yemen’s Houthi movement is likely to intervene sooner or later in support of Tehran, but the timing and scale of any involvement will depend on how the conflict between Iran, the US and Israel unfolds, analysts say. If the Houthis conclude that Iran, their main backer, is losing ground or facing an existential threat, they are likely to escalate militarily, according to observers. “The Houthis are still studying the situation and will make their decision based on the challenges facing Iran,” Fatehi bin Lazreq, editor of the Aden al-Ghad newspaper, told Middle East Eye. “If they determine that the threat to the Iranian regime is existential, they will decide to fully engage in the war.”. In his first speech following US and Israeli air strikes on Iran on Saturday, the movement’s leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, struck an unusually restrained tone, avoiding the fiery rhetoric that typically characterises his addresses. While expressing strong support for Tehran, he stopped short of explicitly pledging military backing. After Iran announced the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Houthi delivered another relatively brief speech, shorter than his usually lengthy appearances, offering condolences to the Iranian people. Again, he refrained from committing to military action. – Why Yemen’s Houthis are hesitating to join Iran war, for now | Middle East Eye
(Soumaya Ghannoushi – Middle East Eye) For more than two decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been circling a single horizon. He has warned about it, lobbied for it, and dramatised it at podiums from Washington to the United Nations. Now it is here. The war he long argued was inevitable has arrived: a direct clash with Iran, carried not by Israel alone, but by the full military weight of the United States. This is neither a limited strike nor a calibrated show of force. It is the most dangerous and reckless confrontation of its kind; a war not born of American necessity, not compelled by imminent threat, not sanctioned by Congress or the United Nations, but driven by an Israeli vision of regional remaking. For years, Netanyahu and his circle have spoken openly of reshaping the Middle East. In their imagination, borders are not fixed. The region is a chessboard to be rearranged according to Israel’s strategic and ideological desires. – How Iran war may accelerate the fall of US empire | Middle East Eye
(Jason Lalljee – Axios) The U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran is likely to impact people around the world as tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran’s southern coast, where traffic has ground to a halt. Why it matters: Trade disruptions along this key waterway on Iran’s southern coast that handles 25% of the world’s maritime oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas shipments will likely produce a domino effect across the global economy. – Iran war: Strait of Hormuz will likely hurt US, global economies
(Jonathan Beale – BBC) US President Donald Trump claims his country has a “virtually unlimited supply” of key weapons. Iran’s defence ministry says it has “the capacity to resist the enemy” for longer than the US had planned. Weapons stocks and supplies alone will not decide the outcome of this conflict – Ukraine has long been outnumbered and outgunned by Russia – but it’s certainly a significant factor. The tempo of operations has been high from the the start. Both sides will already be using up weapons faster than they can be produced. The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) estimates that the US and Israel have already carried out more than 2,000 strikes, each involving multiple munitions. The INSS says Iran has already launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones. Many will have been intercepted. For both sides, this level of combat will become harder to sustain the longer the war drags on. – How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict
(BBC) US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said a US submarine sunk an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean, as the US-Israeli war with Iran continued into a fifth day. Around 180 people were thought to have been on board the Iris Dena, which was near Sri Lankan waters, when it was hit by a torpedo. Israel on Wednesday said it attacked “security headquarters” in the Iranian capital Tehran overnight, Basij paramilitary and missile sites across the city, and it had continued its strikes in Lebanon. Across the Middle East, Iranian strikes hit the US consulate in Dubai and US air base at Al Udaid in Qatar, the biggest American facility in the region. President Donald Trump previously warned the strikes could continue for four or five weeks, adding that the US has “capability to go far longer than that”. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says 1,097 civilians have been reported killed in Iran since 28 February. Six American military personnel have been killed since the conflict began, according to the US Central Command. – In maps: Strikes across Iran and the Middle East
Canada – Australia
(Helen Livingstone – BBC) With the post-war “global architecture breaking down from consecutive crises” Australia and Canada should work together as “strategic cousins”, Mark Carney has told the Australian parliament. The question for middle powers was whether they would write the new rules that determine security and prosperity or “let the hegemons dictate outcomes”, the Canadian prime minister said. Carney said the two countries should cooperate further to boost sovereign capabilities including in the areas of critical minerals, defence and AI. The speech echoed previous statements, including a speech in Davos in January in which he said the “old order is not coming back” and urged middle powers to band together. – Mark Carney: Global order is ‘breaking down’, Canadian PM tells Australian parliament
China
(Osmond Chia – BBC) China has cut its annual economic growth target to a range of 4.5%-5%, the lowest expansion goal since 1991 as it grapples with challenges both at home and abroad. It is the first time the target has been lowered since it was cut to “around 5%” in 2023. A target was not set in 2020 due to the pandemic. The details were released during China’s biggest political gathering, known as the “two sessions”, alongside the release of some details of the 15th Five Year Plan for the world’s second largest economy. Beijing aims to reshape its economy as it faces issues like weak consumption, a shrinking population, an ongoing property crisis, global trade tensions and an energy crunch due to the Iran war. – China sets lowest economic growth target since 1991
Russia – Ukraine
(Abbey Fenbert – The Kyiv Independent) Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear corporation, operates 21 entities that are directly involved in weapons production — but face no EU sanctions, according to a report published March 4 by the Kyiv-based think tank DiXi Group. The organization released the report on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the largest nuclear plant in Europe. Rosatom became the plant’s operator after the occupation, transforming the site from a functioning energy facility to a prison-like fortress on the front lines and high-stakes bargaining chip in ongoing peace talks. Rosatom also oversees an ecosystem of subsidiaries and affiliates that support Russia’s military-industrial complex, including 21 separate entities that are not subject to EU sanctions, DiXi Group reported. These organizations produce drone components and dual-use equipment while developing Russia’s nuclear weapons arsenal. – Russia’s nuclear giant controls massive weapons production ecosystem ignored by sanctions, report finds
US
(Courtenay Brown – Axios) A top trade court ordered the Trump administration on Wednesday to start refunding tariffs to U.S. businesses. Why it matters: The order is the most significant to date in what is expected to be a politically fraught, and possibly lengthy, process of getting hundreds of billions of dollars back to importers. – Trump officials must start tariff refund process, trade court rules
US – Venezuela
(Ione Wells – BBC) Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez and US interior minister Doug Burgum have said the two countries will be working together to develop mining in the country. Burgum, who leads President Donald Trump’s National Energy Dominance Council, met Rodríguez at the presidential palace in Caracas, in the second visit by a US secretary since the US strikes and seizure of Nicolás Maduro in January. Venezuela has already changed its law to allow more foreign investment in its previously nationalised oil sector. Now the government is planning for similar reforms of its mining sector. – Venezuela and US to work together on mining developments, Rodríguez says
(Marc Caputo – Axios) Venezuela’s state-owned mining company on Monday inked a multimillion-dollar deal to sell as many as 1,000 kilograms of gold destined for U.S. markets, two sources familiar with the deal tell Axios. Why it matters: The arrangement shows the tightening commercial bounds between Venezuela and the U.S. after President Trump ousted that nation’s indicted socialist dictator and exerted de facto control over its oil-rich petroleum company. – Trump officials broker huge US-Venezuela gold deal
