Iran and beyond
(Frud Bezhan – RFE RL) The United States is considering arming Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in neighboring Iraq, according to reports, in a move that could open a new front in the war on Iran and risks igniting a civil war in the Middle East country. Several Iranian opposition Kurdish groups are based in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region and have been waging a low-level insurgency against Tehran for years. Some have demanded autonomy within Iran while others are fighting for secession from the Islamic republic. The possibility of the United States supplying weapons to Iranian Kurdish groups and supporting potential cross-border ground attacks in the western part of the country comes as the United States and Israel wage a massive aerial bombardment of Iran. – A New Front In Iran War? US Considers Arming Iranian Kurdish Opposition Groups
(Kian Sharifi – RFE RL) For the first time in 36 years, Iran finds itself having to pick a new supreme leader. It has happened only once before, in 1989, after the death of the founder of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, paved the way for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to take over. While Khomeini died of natural causes, Khamenei was killed on the first day of a joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran on February 28. Now the 88-seat Assembly of Experts must convene in secret to select his successor. Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told RFE/RL that whoever emerges will be chosen on a single criterion: political expediency. The Assembly of Experts is today a “rubber-stamp body” and the process will be driven by circumstance rather than grooming, Vatanka argued. Many names over the years have been thrown around as potential successors to Khamenei, but currently three candidates are widely considered to be frontrunners. – The Administrator, The Wild Card, The Heir: The Clerics Vying For Iran’s Top Job
(Amra Zejneli Loxha – RFE RL) Washington’s objectives in the war with Iran are both military and political, including neutralizing the threat Tehran poses to the United States and its allies and creating conditions for political change inside the country, according to Nathan Sales, a former U.S. ambassador-at-large and coordinator for counterterrorism who is now a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. Sales said a key short-term measure of success would be how quickly Iran’s attacks begin to decline. In his view, a drop in missile and drone strikes would show that the US campaign is weakening Iran’s ability to continue attacking. “I think operations to target the security services are also important because those are the elements of the regime that would try to put down any uprising, any future uprising by the Iranian people to restore democracy and freedom to their country”. Sales also warned that the war could create security threats beyond the Middle East. – Nathan Sales: Success In Iran Will Be Measured By Pace Of Decline In Iranian Attacks
(Zoriana Stepanenko – RFE RL) EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says she doubts Iran’s capacity to sustain its pace of attacks on countries across the Middle East given its decimated military following the 12-day war last year with Israel and the current US-Israeli campaign launched against it over the weekend. “We have to understand that the Iranian capacities are not endless, especially if also the big friends are not supporting them,” she told RFE/RL in an interview conducted in Warsaw on March 4. “Americans have also said that their target is the missile launchers and missile factories, then their capacity to cause harm is also and maybe more limited than they want to show. So this is always also a fight for narratives.”. Expanding on the answer about Tehran’s allies, the former Estonian prime minister was quick to point out that Russia, which has long been seen as a key ally of Tehran, hasn’t rushed to aid the Islamic regime. – Kallas Says Iranian Capacity To Target Gulf States ‘Unsustainable’
(Francis Farrell – The Kyiv Independent) The Trump administration’s move to launch a large-scale strike operation in Iran has seen state-on-state war return to the Middle East with a vengeance. Hours after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes began hitting the country on Feb. 28, Tehran — despite its leadership being decapitated on the first day of the fighting — retaliated with large scale missile and drone attacks across the region, with a focus on U.S. military bases and embassies. On top of its arsenal of ballistic missiles, Iran’s weapon of choice is one that is all too familiar to Ukraine: the Shahed-type drone. First used against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure in late 2022, the Iranian designed long-range suicide drone quickly became one of Moscow’s most well-known weapons of war, terrorizing cities, demolishing infrastructure, and hammering important targets on the front line. While the cost and production demands of ballistic and cruise missiles have placed an upper limit on Moscow’s use of them, the same doesn’t apply for the Shahed-type drones, with some mass overnight attacks often seeing upwards of 500 launched at once. Now, the war of massed, cheap long-range drones has gone global in the Middle East, and early results have shown a lack of readiness for air defenses to handle them. Only Ukraine’s military has anything like the experience of facing this new threat, and amid the explosion of war in and around Iran, Kyiv’s unique abilities gained immediate recognition on the world stage. Facing waves of dozens — sometimes hundreds — of Russian Shahed-type drones on a daily basis, Ukraine has developed, scaled, and deployed cutting-edge drone interceptor technology to protect itself. “We will also bring experts from Ukraine, together with our own experts, to help Gulf partners shoot down Iranian drones attacking them,” said U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on March 2, in words that would have seemed unbelievable not long ago. – Ukraine’s experience priceless as Iran war sees long-range strike drones go global
Artificial Intelligence
(DigWatch) Vietnam’s Law on Artificial Intelligence has entered into force, establishing the first dedicated AI legal framework in Southeast Asia. The law centralises oversight and replaces earlier AI provisions in the 2025 Law on Digital Technology Industry. The framework closely mirrors the AI Act adopted by the European Union. It promotes accountability, transparency, and safety in response to risks such as misinformation, copyright infringement, and deepfakes. – Vietnam AI Law establishes comprehensive risk based governance framework | Digital Watch Observatory
Russia – Ukraine
(Yuliia Taradiuk – The Kyiv Independent) Ukrainian forces struck the Russian port of Novorossiysk, hitting the minesweeper Valentin Pikul and “severely” damaging two anti-submarine ships, the Yeysk and the Kasimov, on March 2, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent. The attack on the Black Sea port in southern Russia, which also killed three Russian sailors and injured 14 others, was carried out by the SBU in coordination with Ukraine’s Defense Forces, the source said. The fire in Novorossiysk’s port lasted all night, according to the source. – 3 Russian ships hit, 3 sailors killed in Ukrainian strike on Black Sea port, SBU source says
US
(Colin Demarest, Ashley Gold, Maria Curi – Axios) Anthropic’s AI tools are now battle-tested, in two radically different military operations — but the Trump administration is still threatening to pull the plug. Why it matters: The international race for AI advantage is not measured in years, but weeks and days. Alienating a leading American AI company and ripping and replacing existing tech could give other countries, especially China, a leg up. Driving the news: AI’s use in Venezuela, leading to the capture of strongman Nicolas Maduro, and in Iran, still ongoing, gives the Defense Department highly sought-after real-world experience. – Anthropic ban may threaten the military’s AI advantage over China
(Asher Price – Axios) Texas state Rep. James Talarico of Austin defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas. Why it matters: Talarico’s victory sets the stage for a battle royal that promises to be among the most expensive contests of the year, as Democrats hope President Trump’s unpopularity translates to red-state victories. – James Talarico wins US Senate Democratic primary in Texas, beating Crockett – Axios Austin
(Amy Harder – Axios) America’s natural gas bounty is acting like a moat, largely shielding the U.S. from price spikes while much of the world reels from escalating unrest in the Middle East. Why it matters: Natural gas hasn’t, historically, drawn the same headlines as the more volatile oil markets. But it’s increasingly central to the economy — including powering the AI boom. – Iran conflict: American gas bounty shielding consumers from war spikes, for now
