Iran and beyond
(Justin Bassi and James Corera – ASPI The Strategist) US-Israeli airstrikes may dominate the footage from Tehran, but a decisive contest is also unfolding in code: a live demonstration of how modern coercion targets a state’s digital nervous system as deliberately as its physical assets. This is not cyber replacing kinetic force. It is cyber fused with kinetic force—an integrated assault on a nation’s technology ecosystems. Far beyond just destroying hardware, the objective is to blind sensors, distort information and, critically, appeal to both civilians and commanders. – Beyond bombs: cyber and information operations targeting Iran’s regime | The Strategist
(Chatham House) The United States and Israel launched multiple air strikes across Iran on Saturday 28 February, striking multiple targets and killing the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. US President Donald Trump announced ‘major combat operations in Iran’ and said later on Saturday that Khamenei had been killed. Iranian state media announced the supreme leader’s death early on Sunday. Trump said: ‘Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime’. He said Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons programme – a claim denied by Tehran. ‘They can never have a nuclear weapon,’ he said. Both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Iranians to pursue regime change. In a message addressed to ‘the great, proud people of Iran,’ Trump said: ‘The hour of your freedom is at hand…when we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.’. Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel, and across the region. – US and Israel attack Iran, killing Khamenei. Tehran launches counterstrikes: Early analysis from Chatham House experts | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Marc Weller – Chatham House) The United States has taken a further, major step in unhinging the global order. The core principle of that order is that no state can go to war in pursuit of its own national policy. Where use of force is claimed as necessary in the global interest, this can only be done through a mandate from the UN Security Council. After last year’s Israeli-US strikes against Iran, President Donald Trump’s threats of force against Greenland, the conflict in Gaza, Israel’s attack on Qatar and other cases, including most notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it seems as if we are now moving to a world where deference to international law is no longer seen as decisive and the use of force is becoming the new normal. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, at the outset of the conflict has put this into even sharper focus. – With Iran attacks, President Trump is making the use of force the new normal – and casting aside international law | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Crisis Group) In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk to discuss the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, the regional fallout, and what could come next. Richard first speaks with Ali about the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and what it means for Tehran’s leadership and decision-making. They assess the damage to Iran’s missile capabilities, the risks posed by its remaining nuclear stockpile, and escalation dynamics as Iran retaliates against Israel and countries in the Gulf. Richard then speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states are responding, their concerns about escalation and the “day after” in Iran, and their anger at Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones. – Special Episode: Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader | International Crisis Group
(Mona Yacoubian – CSIS) Following weeks of mounting tensions, the United States—together with Israel—opted for a massive attack on Iran, including Iranian leadership decapitation strikes, as well as strikes against nuclear, ballistic missile, and other military targets, signaling an ambitious U.S. goal of regime change in Iran. Iran retaliated immediately, unleashing attacks on U.S. and other targets across several countries in the region and raising prospects for a wider regional conflict with global reverberations. – CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
(Landon Derentz – Atlantic Council) Following US-Israel strikes on Iran, crude oil prices are likely to rise, but the increase will still likely be less than the inflation-adjusted average price during the Iraq War. The greater risk is a prolonged disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which could generate significant economic and political pressure if closures persist. – Don’t worry about the Iran conflict’s impact on oil prices—yet – Atlantic Council
(Atlantic Council) What happens in Iran doesn’t stay in Iran. The consequences of the US-Israeli military campaign launched on Saturday, which is aimed at regime change in Iran and immediately killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, will radiate across the region and the world. – Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East – Atlantic Council
(Khalid Azim – Atlantic Council) During periods of heightened uncertainty, the most important function of regulators and policymakers is to ensure that investors have access to liquidity and that markets remain orderly. Fortunately, financial markets are generally adept at pricing risk, including complex forms such as event risk, natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, and sovereign instability. Across traditional asset classes, rates, credit, foreign exchange, commodities, and equities, investors have a wide range of tools to hedge exposure, including credit default swaps, rate locks, options, short selling, insurance wraps, and other instruments. These mechanisms allow markets to incorporate adverse outcomes into pricing, typically through higher discount rates and wider risk premiums. – The risk of unknown unknowns for global markets amid war in Iran – Atlantic Council
(Joseph Rodgers and Bailey Schiff – CSIS) At approximately 7:00 AM local time, the United States and Israel began conducting extensive strikes against a wide range of targets in Iran. The strikes have been dubbed Operation Epic Fury by the United States and Operation Roaring Lion by Israel. The outset of the conflict was communicated unconventionally: President Trump announced the attacks in a TruthSocial post at 2:00 AM EST. There was no address to the media or public briefing to Congress beyond a notification to the Gang of Eight shortly before strikes commenced. The eight-minute-long video concluded with a direct message from President Trump to Iranians, stating “the hour of your freedom is at hand.”. The strikes in Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion differ drastically from Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, which consisted of limited strikes against key nuclear targets. In contrast, the February 28 strikes targeted leadership, military installations, missile production sites, and the remnants of Iran’s nuclear program. The strikes appear to be an initial salvo of a longer conflict aimed at the systematic degradation of the Iranian government. – Operation Epic Fury and the Remnants of Iran’s Nuclear Program
(Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill – RUSI) President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu seem to be calculating that the Islamic Republic is weak enough that an air-only campaign will be enough to eliminate the twin threat of its missile capabilities and latent nuclear programme while breaking its ability to repress its population. Targets struck so far are reported to be mostly a mixture of senior leadership, missile and conventional military sites, with the impact unclear. It is likely that ballistic missile launchers, cruise missile and navy targets will be the priorities, as they limit the Iranian ability to retaliate; Iranian escalation to inflict unacceptable losses may be their only option if they wish to curtail the campaign. The alternative is to hunker down and hope they can exhaust the Israeli and US capacity to inflict damage, though with the forces assembled, they can probably strike hundreds of targets a day – for now. The Iranian response has been more rapid than in 2025, and broader in terms of striking US regional bases, even at the risk of bringing countries like Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE out in support of the US. – US and Israeli Strikes on Iran: Military and Nuclear Proliferation Analyses | Royal United Services Institute
