From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Afghanistan; Armenia (Karabakh Refugees); Artificial Intelligence; Australia; Australia-Japan; Australia-Japan-US; Australia-Philippines; Belarus; China-Venezuela-US; Critical Minerals Crime; Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture; Europe; France; Great Lakes; Haiti; Hong Kong; India; Iran; Islamic State; Israel-West Bank; Japan; Japan-South Korea; Libya; Murdered Journalists; Nuclear Weapons; Political Risk Insurance; Russia; South Korea-AUKUS; Syria-Middle East; US; Warfare
Afghanistan
(Crisis Group) Despite the myriad harsh controls the Taliban have imposed on their lives, a growing number of Afghan women are seeking ways to earn a living. To boost the economy, the authorities should relax rules that hinder women’s entrepreneurship. Donors can also assist these women’s ventures. – A Precarious Lifeline? Women-led Business in Afghanistan | International Crisis Group
(Amnesty International) All forced returns of refugees and asylum seekers to Afghanistan must immediately end, Amnesty International said, as the latest UN figures revealed that Iran and Pakistan alone have unlawfully expelled more than 2.6 million people to the country this year. About 60% of those returned are women and children. Thousands of others have been deported from Turkey and Tajikistan. The figures come as the Taliban intensify their attacks on human rights with devastating effect particularly on women and girls, and the country remains in the grip of a humanitarian crisis, which has been further exacerbated by the recent series of natural disasters. Afghanistan’s deepening humanitarian crisis increases the real risk of serious harm for returnees and underscores states’ binding non-refoulement obligations under customary international law, which prohibits the forcible return of anyone to a place where they face a real risk of grave human rights violations. – Afghanistan: Forced returns to Taliban rule must end as latest figures reveal millions unlawfully deported in 2025 – Amnesty International
Armenia (Karabakh Refugees)
(Crisis Group) In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus, to discuss the increasingly difficult situation facing people displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia after Azerbaijan regained control of the territory in a rapid 2023 offensive. They unpack the refugees’ mounting challenges–from insecure housing after cuts to government assistance to discrimination–and their growing frustration with Armenia’s government. They also examine the role refugees from Karabakh might play in Armenia’s 2026 elections and peace efforts with Azerbaijan, their hopes of return, and what the EU can do to help Yerevan respond. – Karabakh Refugees in Armenia | International Crisis Group
Artificial Intelligence
(ASPI The Strategist) The concept is bleakly called P(doom)—the probability that AI will destroy humanity. Daisy McGregor is not as worried about it as she used to be. Leading UK policy at AI research house Anthropic, she points to belated government efforts to work on AI safety. But Roman Yampolskiy, prominent among AI experts for warning of the danger, reckons P(doom) is close to 100 percent. Speaking alongside McGregor at ASPI’s Sydney Dialogue conference on 4 December, he said, ‘You can’t indefinitely control something way smarter than you.’. ‘It’s kind of like building a … perpetual safety device, guaranteeing that every model, ever made by every company, in every environment, with all the malevolent interactions in [training] data, will never make a big mistake. That’s very unlikely.’ – Debating AI armageddon at The Sydney Dialogue | The Strategist
Australia
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) In the days after Sunday night’s terrorist attack at Bondi Beach, a familiar pattern has emerged. Shock gives way to grief. Grief turns into questions. And questions, inevitably, become accusations. How did this happen? Who failed? Who didn’t do their job? Because this was a terrorist attack, the blowtorch has now been turned on Australia’s police and intelligence agencies. That scrutiny is understandable. Scrutiny is also necessary in a liberal democracy. But it must be informed by some uncomfortable truths about how intelligence, policing and risk actually work. – Bondi terror: don’t scapegoat the people who keep us safe | The Strategist
Australia-Japan
(Rintaro Inoue – ASPI The Strategist) Ground-launched missiles for warding off enemy warships could be the next item on the table for Australia–Japan defence equipment cooperation. The candidate weapon is the Upgraded Type-12 SSM, unofficially called the Type-12 SSM-ER, which Japan plans to introduce before April of 2026. From what little of its specification that has been disclosed, we know that this is an advanced weapon of great range, and it should be an alternative to a US missile that Australia is presumably considering. – Another option for Australian maritime defence: Japan’s advanced anti-ship missile | The Strategist
Australia-Japan-US
(Frank Rose – ASPI The Strategist) For much of the past decade, Australia, Japan, and the United States have quietly built one of the most sophisticated trilateral security relationships in the Indo‑Pacific. Across intelligence-sharing, advanced air and maritime operations, joint exercises, force posture and emerging technologies, the three countries are now more interoperable than at any point in their history. From Canberra to Tokyo to Washington, defence planners increasingly assume that any serious regional contingency would involve all three forces operating together. Yet beneath this deepening military integration lies a growing political unease. While operational cooperation has accelerated, confidence in US political reliability—particularly under the second Trump administration—has eroded in allied capitals. The result is a paradox that now defines trilateral security cooperation: unprecedented military integration without corresponding political reassurance. This tension matters. In an Indo‑Pacific shaped by China’s rapid military modernisation and increasingly coercive behaviour, deterrence depends not only on capabilities and interoperability but also on credible political commitment. For Australia and Japan, the question is no longer whether the US can fight alongside them but whether it will—consistently and predictably—when political or economic trade‑offs are involved. – Security integration without reassurance: Australia, Japan and the US | The Strategist
Australia-Philippines
(James Carouso and Ray Powell – ASPI The Strategist) For years, a group directed by the Chinese Communist Party has been operating quietly in Manila, part of a global network designed to advance Beijing’s interests by advocating the party’s position on Taiwan under the guise of community engagement. The organisation is the Philippine Council for the Promotion of Peaceful Reunification of China (PCPPRC), and its activities have attracted media coverage in the past month, including a report by one of the authors of this article, Ray Powell. – How Australia’s counter-interference experience can help the Philippines | The Strategist
Belarus
(Reporters Without Borders) RSF’s Digital Security Lab (DSL), working with the Eastern European organisation RESIDENT.NGO, has uncovered a previously unknown spyware tool used by the State Security Committee (KGB) of Belarus to target, among others, journalists and media workers. RSF assesses that this exposure is a serious setback for the KGB’s operations, not least because the software appears to have been in use for several years. – Exclusive: RSF uncovers new spyware from Belarus | RSF
China-Venezuela-US
(Dennis Yang-The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing’s “all-weather strategic partnership” with Caracas rests on oil-for-loans arrangements, infrastructure projects, and military equipment sales. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has deployed People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels to the southern Caribbean, diplomatically invoking the 2014 Latin American “zone of peace” framework while avoiding security commitments that could provoke direct confrontation with the United States. The PRC has framed recent U.S. military operations near Venezuela as violations of sovereignty and international law, positioning itself as a defender of Latin American autonomy against external interference. – PRC–Venezuela Relations Endure During U.S. Military Operation – Jamestown
Critical Minerals Crime
(Jennifer Scotland-RUSI) As global demand for critical minerals accelerates, ensuring that these resources are sourced responsibly is essential to reducing opportunities for organised crime to infiltrate international supply chains. The current volatile and weak pricing of critical minerals presents a narrow window of opportunity to introduce the necessary safeguards, before prices rise. Nonetheless, the risks of criminality in critical mineral supply chains remain poorly understood and, in many cases, overlooked. Gold provides an instructive, cautionary example of the dangers of failing to address these risks early. In gold mining hotspots in the Amazon Basin and parts of sub-Saharan Africa, soaring prices have turned illegal gold mining into a major source of revenue for organised crime and conflict actors, harming communities and the environment. – Critical Minerals Crime: Lessons to Learn from Gold Mining | Royal United Services Institute
Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture
(Ed Arnold and Darya Dolzikova – RUSI) The post-1945 Euro-Atlantic security architecture (EASA) – the layered patchwork of organisations, treaties, agreements and norms that have upheld European security for 80 years – is being fundamentally restructured. Many of the shifts are deep rooted, with Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine currently driving this transformation. A confluence of external and internal dynamics now amounts to the most acute challenge to the EASA since its inception and will influence how the future EASA develops. (1) The rules-based international order has been actively dismissed by revisionist powers and weakened through perceived hypocrisy of its Western advocates. (2) US leadership that upholds the EASA is no longer assured as the second President Donald J Trump administration dramatically realigns towards domestic priorities and the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific. (3) The intensification of great power competition is driving states to unshackle the constraints of multilateralism and wield their power to redefine international security. (4) Russia and China are deepening their partnership alongside their cooperation with Iran and the Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea – a grouping labelled ‘CRINK’ – to reshape the global order to their worldview and develop greater security linkages between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific. Indeed, China’s President Xi Jinping views the current conditions in the Euro-Atlantic relationship as an opportunity for a greater leadership role of aligned ‘middle-ground’ powers. (5) The stasis of liberalism and the rise of populism within Europe and the US are creating unprecedented and simultaneous internal political instability, fraying Western unity and multilateral collective action. – The Future of the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture | Royal United Services Institute
Europe
(Neil Melvin-RUSI) Europe is experiencing a ‘minilateral’ revolution as its leaders huddle up with trusted neighbours and partners across the continent to build defence and security relationships. This political shift is driven by the twin challenges of growing threats, notably from Russia, and hostility from the Trump administration, which together have forced Europe’s leaders to look for new ways to assert leadership. On a 18 November 2025, Prime Minister Starmer flew to Berlin for a dinner meeting with his German and French counterparts in the E3 format, a grouping originally established to represent Europe in nuclear negotiations with Iran. Ultimately, there was little media coverage of the meeting other than noting that the leaders discussed the situations in Ukraine, the Middle East and Iran, as well as economic issues. Leaders expressed support for working together on foreign and security policy, and highlighted cooperation with Poland and Italy. The E5 – a group having been set up earlier in 2025 to bring together the continent’s largest defence actors – had met days earlier at the defence minister’s level (plus EU High Representative) to coordinate support for Ukraine. – Europe’s Minilateral Moment | Royal United Services Institute
France
(Reporters Without Borders) In the past two weeks, StreetPress, a French news site dedicated to investigations and urban culture, was targeted by three complaints, bringing the number of ongoing legal proceedings against the independent media outlet to 13. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) condemns these strategic lawsuits against public participation — known as SLAPP suits — and calls on lawmakers to transpose the European Union’s “Anti-SLAPP” Directive) into French law so that these abusive legal proceedings can finally be stopped. – French media outlet StreetPress gagged by 13 lawsuits, urgent need for anti-SLAPP law in France | RSF
Great Lakes
(Crisis Group) Parallel peace talks between the Congolese government and Rwanda and the M23 rebels, respectively, have yielded welcome agreements. But as these negotiations have proceeded, the battles in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have become more intense. Diplomats need to redouble their efforts. – The M23 Offensive: Elusive Peace in the Great Lakes | International Crisis Group
Haiti
(Crisis Group) The Viv Ansanm gang coalition has pushed the violence wracking Haiti to alarming levels. As a new foreign force takes shape, it is vital that plans be in place not just to overpower the criminal groups but also to persuade them to disband. – Undoing Haiti’s Deadly Gang Alliance | International Crisis Group
Hong Kong
(Reporters Without Borders) RSF is outraged that a court in Hong Kong has delivered a guilty verdict in the sham trial of British publisher Jimmy Lai, who has already been arbitrarily detained in appalling conditions for more than 1800 days. We call on democratic leaders worldwide to act immediately to secure the release of the 78-year-old founder of Apple Daily, whose health is failing and whose imprisonment is emblematic of a wider and devastating collapse of press freedom in the territory. – Hong Kong: RSF slams guilty verdict in sham trial of British publisher Jimmy Lai | RSF
India
(Amnesty International) Responding to a video circulating on social media allegedly showing the Chief Minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar pulling down Nusrat Parveen’s hijab during a government function, Aakar Patel, Chair of Board at Amnesty International India, said: “This act was an assault on this woman’s dignity, autonomy, and identity. When a public official forcibly pulls down a woman’s hijab, it sends a message to the general public that this behavior is acceptable. No one has the right to police a woman’s faith or clothing. “Such actions deepen fear, normalize discrimination, and erode the very foundations of equality and freedom of religion. This violation demands unequivocal condemnation and accountability. Urgent steps must be taken to ensure that no woman is subjected to such degrading treatment.” – India: Chief Minister’s removal of woman’s hijab demands “unequivocal condemnation” – Amnesty International
(Reporters Without Borders) Known for its repeated attacks on the independent press, OpIndia plays a central role in the widespread trend of discrediting reliable news media in India. Between 2023 and 2025, more than 300 publications targeting journalists were published on its website, often fuelling large-scale online harassment campaigns. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) demands that the Indian public prosecutor open an investigation into the cyberharassment of journalists linked to these publications. The NGO also calls for better regulation of online information platforms and an end to OpIndia’s advertising funding via Google AdSense. – RSF investigation: OpIndia, the media machine targeting journalists in India with hundreds of disparaging articles | RSF
Iran
(Azriel Bermant – ASPI The Strategist) In the wake of the Israel–Iran war in June, all the signs point to a regime in Tehran that is nearing collapse. Iran is facing unprecedented electricity and water shortages, which are exacerbating domestic unrest. The regime cannot meet the economic needs of its people. Even traditional supporters of the Islamic Republic of Iran, such as the merchant classes, have fallen out with the regime. The government is increasingly hesitant in compelling women to wear the hijab, because it fears a major revolt. – The ayatollahs’ grip is weakening. Who can replace them is less clear | The Strategist
Islamic State
(The Soufan Center) The recent Islamic State attacks in Syria and Australia were less about a resurgence of IS, and more a reflection of a longstanding reality — the group has not been defeated and will remain a major counterterrorism challenge for the foreseeable future. Looking ahead to 2026, the Sahel will remain one of the primary nodes in the broader global jihadist landscape and there are growing concerns from counterterrorism analysts that Islamic State affiliates across the continent could shift some resources toward conducting external operations. Islamic State Somalia has accelerated its recruitment of foreign fighters to the Puntland while also pushing sophisticated multilingual propaganda in an effort to radicalize and incite its followers and supporters. The Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K) is at the forefront of experimenting with artificial intelligence to improve the resonance and reach of its propaganda and media operations. – Nearing the End of 2025, What is the State of the Islamic State? – The Soufan Center
Israel-West Bank
(Crisis Group) Spurred by the Gaza war, Israel ramped up repression of Palestinians and settlement expansion in the West Bank, along with economic strictures. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Max Rodenbeck explains the harm these measures have caused and how outside powers can help stop them. – Why Some Relief for Gaza, but None for the West Bank? | International Crisis Group
Japan
(Naoki Takeda – RUSI) Japanese democracy has long been believed to be largely immune from foreign influence by virtue of cultural and language barriers. However, since 2012, and during the second administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, concerns began to emerge that China was influencing Japanese public opinion through social media. Suspicions are now being raised about Russian influence, notably in connection to the upper house election of 20 July 2025. The Policy Research Council of the Liberal Democratic Party submitted a proposal concerning the reinforcement of public security to the Japanese government on 27 May 2025. It suggested that the Japanese government should consider preparatory discussions for the implementation of an anti-espionage law that would be on a level similar to other countries’ laws. By drawing lessons from the experience of other countries with comparable political systems, the lessons from this paper could contribute to taking this proposal forward in Japan. – Foreign Influence in Japan: Lessons from the UK, US and Australia | Royal United Services Institute
Japan-South Korea
(Soyoung Kim – Lowy The Interpreter) In the midst of an intensifying spat with China over her remarks on Japan’s involvement in a Taiwan contingency, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has now offended another neighbour. On 9 December, during a budget committee meeting, Takaichi said that a group of islets known as Takeshima in Japan and claimed as Dokdo by South Korea (and internationally known as the Liancourt Rocks) is Japan’s national territory. She condemned what she described as Korea’s illegal occupation of the islets. Given the recent warming of Korea–Japan relations, the timing of this remark – undeniably inflammatory – is puzzling. Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung and Takaichi have maintained a notably cordial and cooperative relationship despite initial concerns over their political differences. They held a successful meeting at APEC and exchanged warm greetings at other international conferences. – Japan-Korea relations: Sanae’s puzzling provocation | Lowy Institute
Libya
(Tim Eaton – Chatham House) Policies to address Libya’s interminable political and security crises have too often relied on a flawed system of elite bargains in which power- and wealth-sharing are used to keep the peace among rival factions. The irony is that such policies often aggravate some of the very conflict dynamics they are intended to remedy, for example incentivizing economic predation and rent-seeking via control of state institutions. This paper makes the case for an alternative approach. Efforts to tackle the economic causes of conflict in Libya must be systemically integrated into political negotiations, given equal status to the political ‘track’, and reinforced by active mediation. The paper argues that an enhanced economic track of this nature should focus on five areas: (1) immediate stabilization of the economy, with the UN and other international partners spearheading the development of technical governance; (2) structural economic and political reform, pursued through a consultative process, so that more equitable and stable economic models are developed and entrenched; (3) capacity-building to equip Libyan officials and institutions with the skills and resources to implement reform programming; (4) anti-corruption enforcement; and (5) public diplomacy, so that ordinary people and civil society have a stronger say in Libya’s political and economic future. – Escaping the cycle of conflict in Libya | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Murdered Journalists
(Reporters Without Borders) Journalists do not just die – they are killed. The number of murdered journalists has risen again, due to the criminal practices of military groups — both regular and paramilitary — and organised crime. At least 53 of the 67 media professionals killed over the past year are victims of war or criminal networks. – 2025, a deadly year for journalists: this is where hate and impunity lead | RSF
Nuclear Weapons
(Paul Bracken – RUSI) Words matter. A name shapes what we see and what we do not see. A recent example is the claim that we live in a ‘new nuclear age.’ But it is not clear what is new about this new age. ;Nine countries now have the bomb. Everything points to this number increasing. This is new, I suppose, since the number 9 is larger than 5 or 7. But the claim is that we have moved into a brand-new world and that the US needs to rethink every aspect of nuclear weapons. – The ‘New’ Nuclear Age Is Not New | Royal United Services Institute
Political Risk Insurance
(Matthew Newman-Lowy The Interpreter) “Geopolitical risk” used to be a bespoke reference used by businesses operating in places where coups, uprisings, and currency collapses were possible. Now geopolitics is entangled with every facet of international commerce, including supply chains, commodity flows, export permits, sanctions regimes, and regulatory decisions. As more and more markets become vulnerable to adverse government intervention or political instability, these risks can no longer be overlooked. Political risk insurance (PRI) is designed to sustain international commercial activity in an uncertain geopolitical setting. Currently offered by 61 international insurance carriers, it is tailored to specific country risks and business plans, with cover usually lasting three to five years. Premium costs vary significantly – as one broker said, from “the thousands into the millions of dollars depending what [you] are after”. – A new era for political risk insurance | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Amnesty International) Reacting to the detention of three prominent human rights defenders in Yekaterinburg on charges of “organizing activities of an undesirable organization,” Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Eastern Europe and Central Asia Director, said: “The Russian authorities are blatantly attempting to criminalize human rights work. By conducting intrusive searches and arbitrary arrests, and by criminalizing peaceful cooperation with international partners, the authorities are determined to force human rights defenders into submission. “Russia’s authorities must immediately release Aleksei Sokolov, Larisa Zakharova and Roman Kachanov and drop all charges against them, which stem solely from their human rights work. Instead of prosecuting those who expose the abuses of the justice and penal systems, the authorities should address these violations themselves.” – Russia: Prominent human rights defenders targeted under “undesirable organizations” legislation – Amnesty International
(William Dixon and Maksym Beznosiuk – RUSI) The Kremlin’s strategic wager was clear: that an incoming Trump administration would force a peace deal on Kyiv and Europe’s capitals, locking in Russia’s territorial gains and fracturing Western unity before Moscow’s own clock ran out. And if it didn’t, the US would withdraw support. That strategy has stalled. Instead of softening, Ukrainian and European positions have hardened and held their red-lines. This year’s proposals did not divide; they solidified. Even the release of the Trump National Security Strategy with its polarising rhetoric outlined US commitment to NATO and Ukraine via the Hague 5% spending pledge – ultimately hardening the collective defence investments and resolve of the allies Putin hoped to fracture. Since retreating from Kyiv in April 2022, Russia has now failed in four of its five strategic objectives: political subjugation, economic sustainability, regime stability and international standing. Only in territorial control does it hold a pyrrhic advantage. But a declining power is often more dangerous than a rising one. Facing an economic spiral and depleted conventional forces, Vladimir Putin is entering a window of maximum danger. We must prepare not for a resurgent Russia but for a desperate one: 2026 will be the year of hybrid escalation. Escalation, which the UK’s Foreign Secretary, in December 2025, on the 100th anniversary of Locarno, boldly stated was already ‘flagrantly visible’. – Russia is Losing – Time for Putin’s 2026 Hybrid Escalation | Royal United Services Institute
(Richard Connolly-RUSI) In Russia, the word reiderstvo – corporate raiding – does not mean what it does elsewhere. In the West, it evokes hostile takeovers, proxy battles or boardroom manoeuvres. In Russia, it means something far more coercive: the seizure of businesses and assets through administrative power, legal manipulation or outright force, often with the tacit – or explicit – support of the state. It is a practice that has evolved alongside the Russian market economy itself. From the gangster capitalism of the 1990s to the increasingly centralised state capitalism that has grown stronger under Vladimir Putin’s rule, reiderstvo has remained one of the most reliable instruments of political control. – Raiding in Russia’s Wartime Economy | Royal United Services Institute
(Hybrid Centre of Excellence-RUSI) Russia’s employment of non-state actors (NSA) is a staple of its approach to hybrid threat operations. This handbook provides an overarching assessment of Russia’s approach to working with and through various NSAs across different operational domains, mapping both the empirical depth and breadth of the phenomenon. It establishes a much-needed baseline for understanding the logic behind Russia’s use of NSAs and lays the groundwork for determining appropriate measures and countermeasures at a time when operations below and above the threshold of war are on the rise. – Handbook on the Role of Non-State Actors in Russian Hybrid Threats | Royal United Services Institute
South Korea – AUKUS
(Jihoon Yu – ASPI The Strategist) Seoul should treat AUKUS less as a model to copy and more as a cautionary guide as it shapes the terms of Washington’s support for the South Korea’s own nuclear-powered submarine program. South Korea’s deal with the United States offers a prestige capability, but it also opens many of the same challenges Australia has confronted: long-term costs and contentious non-proliferation politics. The core question for Seoul is not whether it can get nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), but on what terms and to what strategic effect. – What AUKUS teaches Seoul about nuclear-powered submarines | The Strategist
Syria-Middle East
(Frederick Kempe-Atlantic Council) It has been one year since Bashar al-Assad’s fall, and Syrians are celebrating the end to his and his father’s brutal dictatorships, which had spanned more than half a century. On December 8, crowds filled Umayyad Square to cheer the anniversary and listen to Assad’s improbable successor, Ahmed al-Sharaa, a forty-three-year-old former al-Qaeda fighter and rebel commander. In Washington, the House of Representatives marked the moment by voting through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which includes the repeal of sanctions on Syria under the 2019 Caesar Act. President Donald Trump signed the bill into law on Thursday, potentially unlocking billions of dollars of investments—much of it from Saudi Arabia—that could contribute significantly to Syria’s economic revival. That follows al-Sharaa’s historic visit to the White House in November as the first Syrian leader ever in the Oval Office, where Trump promised support. But this past Saturday, a member of Syrian security forces—an individual set to be fired for suspected links to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS)—killed two US soldiers and a US civilian interpreter in an ambush. It was an unsettling reminder that dangers for al-Sharaa and his international supporters lurk underneath all of Syria’s progress. – Dispatch from Riyadh: Why Syria is central to the Middle East’s future – Atlantic Council
US
(Andrew Friedman-Center for Strategic & Internationasl Studies) The U.S. government is the single largest purchaser of goods in the world. In fiscal year 2024, the U.S. government obligated $755 billion, with approximately $259 billion spent on products, including many items that require multitiered and geographically diverse supply chains. This large purchasing power creates significant opportunities to foster positive change in supply chains and makes government procurement an important, and underutilized, inroad for the protection of human rights. This protection of human rights in supply chains is vital to both U.S. economic and national security interests. Without these protections, U.S. companies are forced to compete on price against companies using supply chains with forced labor or other labor rights violations, and malign actors who are implicated in a wide range of international crimes and foment instability can be empowered by human trafficking and forced labor. This report explores potential means for utilizing this procurement capacity and creating greater space for human rights protections within federal government procurement. The report takes an additive view, examining ways in which incentives can be created for bidders to protect human rights in their supply chains, creating opportunities for the private sector to move toward cleaner and more transparent supply chains while maintaining and deepening its procurement relationships with the federal government. It also examines ways in which the federal government can work with the private sector to develop supply chains free of violations. – Improving Transparency and Human Rights in Procurement: An Incentive-Based Approach
(Michael Froman-Council on Foreign Relations) As 2025 winds down, it’s a good time to look back, step back, and try to see what bigger themes and lessons might be drawn from the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term. When Trump was reelected president last year, many Americans believed, for good reason, that he would chart an isolationist course for the country. But one of the biggest foreign policy surprises of 2025 might well be that, one year into this term, Trump has not only eschewed isolationism but established a new brand of American internationalism with Trumpian characteristics. – A Look Back at 2025: The Year in Foreign Policy | Council on Foreign Relations
(Vanda Felbab-Brown-Brookings) On December 15, the Trump administration designated illicit fentanyl and its “core precursor chemicals … such as Piperidone or other Piperidone-based substances,” as a weapon of mass destruction (WMD). Some families of fentanyl victims may consider the designation a welcome Christmas gift; others may see it as merely tough posturing. The designation does, in fact, significantly intensify the criminalization of fentanyl trafficking, dealing, and even, potentially, use. It reinforces the Trump administration’s overall conceptualization of drug policy as centering on maximum-strength militarized supply-side measures while reducing access to treatment. The implications range from domestic law enforcement to foreign policy. There is little clarity so far as to how the Trump administration intends to use the WMD designation. But it sets up a basis for more military counternarcotics actions abroad and intensified criminalization of drug dealing and use at home. – Will designating fentanyl as a WMD misfire? | Brookings
Warfare
(Mirko Niederkofler – RUSI) Ukraine’s drone success holds a deeper lesson for NATO: technological sovereignty at the component level is essential to future battlefield dominance. – Drones Win Battles, Components Win Wars | Royal United Services Institute
