Attack on US Forces in Syria: ISIS likely seeks to conduct insider or “green-on-blue” attacks targeting US forces in Syria as part of an effort to reduce US forces’ trust in Syrian partner forces and disrupt the United States’ ability to effectively work with Syrian partners to defeat ISIS. A suspected ISIS-aligned Syrian security forces member killed two US servicemembers, a US civilian interpreter, and a Syrian internal security officer in Palmyra, Homs Province, in an insider attack on December 13. ISIS’s effort to sow divisions between the United States and Syria appears to be unsuccessful at this time because senior US officials have indicated that the recent attack “reinforces” the US policy of supporting Syrian partners to defeat ISIS.
Threat of Baloch Militant Groups to Iranian Regime Security: The newly established Mobarizoun Popular Front, which is a coalition of Baloch organizations that seeks to facilitate “deep political change” in Iran, outlined its objectives in a charter on December 10. The coalition stated in its charter that it seeks to increase coordination and cooperation with all anti-regime parties and groups across Iran. This call suggests that the Mobarizoun Popular Front may view itself as a vanguard for a popular uprising against the Iranian regime.
PRC Military Support for Iran: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to support Iran’s efforts to reconstitute its missile program following the Israel–Iran War. Unspecified US officials told the Wall Street Journal on December 12 that US special operations forces seized military and dual use components from a vessel that was heading from the PRC to Iran in November 2025. A second unspecified US official stated that US intelligence assessed that the cargo was destined for Iranian companies that procure components for Iran’s missile program.
STC Takeover in Southern Yemen: The United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) and Saudi Arabia remain at odds over the STC’s recent seizure of key areas in eastern Yemen. The STC continues to take efforts to legitimize its authority over these areas and frame its recent military action as necessary to fight the Houthis, while Saudi-backed leaders and non-UAE-backed actors continue to claim that they are the rightful leaders of the Republic of Yemen Government.
Iran Update, December 15, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)
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