LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(Nicol Turner Lee and Natasha White – Brookings) OpenAI’s new text-to-video generative AI application, Sora, heightens the risks that generative AI poses to the creative industry. The film industry, in particular, has already been eliminating jobs in tandem with its adoption of AI technology, and Sora’s release could jumpstart this trend. Sora is also resurfacing ongoing questions about how the training of generative AI technology on publicly available media interacts with copyright protections.
How OpenAI’s Sora hurts the creative industries | Brookings
(Niusha Shafiabady – ASPI The Strategist) Weapons have had some capacity for decision-making since World War II, but now artificial intelligence is taking the capability to vastly greater levels and, before long, prevalence.
Australia – AUKUS
(George Henneke – ASPI The Strategist) Opinions vary on the AUKUS partnership’s likely long-term effects on Australia’s military capacity. To some, it is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to foster international collaboration, spur private investment and build a more robust domestic defence industry. To others, it is an invitation to open more Australian tenders to prime contractors from the US and Britain, thereby drowning Australia’s small businesses under a tsunami of foreign competition.
China – Taiwan
(David Cheng-Wei Wu – Lowy The Interpreter) Tarik Solmaz’s recent article in The Interpreter, Three factors hardening China’s stance on Taiwan, provided an incisive snapshot of three of the factors aggravating Beijing’s aggressive grey zone actions against Taiwan in recent times.
The most important factor hardening China’s stance on Taiwan | Lowy Institute
Global Economy
(Ben S. Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard – Brookings) We recently proposed a simple model of the inflation process, estimated it on post-1990 U.S. data, and used the results to identify the shocks and transmission mechanisms that have determined U.S. inflation since 2019 (Bernanke and Blanchard 2023, hereafter BB). Ten central banks expressed interest in using our model to study the recent inflation in their own economies, and we agreed to do a joint project. This paper summarizes and discusses in broad terms the results of the project, leaving details to papers and reports produced by staff at the cooperating central banks. The 10 are Belgium, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, U.K. and the European Central bank.
An analysis of postpandemic inflation in 11 economies | Brookings
Middle East
(Crisis Group) From the onset of the Gaza war, Cairo has worried about the risks it creates for Egypt, from refugee flight to economic shocks. Foreign partners should keep working for a ceasefire – the best way to prevent spillover – while pushing Egyptian officials toward reform at home.
Egypt’s Gaza Dilemmas | Crisis Group
Myanmar
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) Myanmar’s civil war between resistance groups and the ruling military junta has reached a decisive phase.
Will 2024 Be the Junta’s End in Myanmar? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
North Korea
(Crisis Group) Russia used its Security Council veto to terminate a UN panel monitoring sanctions on North Korea, complicating efforts to contain Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Christopher Green, Richard Gowan and Maya Ungar delve into the consequences.
Plugging a New Gap in Monitoring Sanctions on North Korea | Crisis Group
Red Sea – USA
(Jean-Loup Samaan – Atlantic Council) Six months after the Joe Biden administration launched Operation Prosperity Guardian to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the biggest issue facing the White House is not the Houthi threat but the US failure to rally partners and allies behind its leadership. Fortunately, since the Houthis waged their attacks on ships crossing the Red Sea, US forces have succeeded in intercepting projectiles fired from Yemen. Physical damage has been limited and, contrary to initial fears, the economic impact has remained under control. Still, the international response to the Houthi threat is no success story. The Biden administration struggled to garner diplomatic support and military contributions.
The Red Sea attacks highlight the erosion of US leadership in the region – Atlantic Council
Russia
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) On May 12, Moscow replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Russian economist and former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. Belousov’s appointment is likely geared at optimizing military spending and improving the war economy, as the Kremlin struggles with unpredictable arms costs. The new defense minister will be responsible for solving logistical, recruitment, and financial issues, as well as navigating the complicated relationship between the Russian military, security agencies, and the Kremlin, which Shoigu failed to do.
Belousov Appointed as Russian Minister of Defense – Jamestown
Russia – China
(Atlantic Council) Keep your “friends” close. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in Beijing to celebrate a “new era” of cooperation in an increasingly “multipolar world.” Putin’s visit comes as Russian forces are ravaging Kharkiv, and just after the Russian president reshuffled his military leadership ahead of an expected summer offensive in Ukraine. Putin is relying on his “dear friend” in China to continue supporting his country’s wartime economy, including through oil purchases. At the same time, Xi is looking to lock in a junior partner for China as its economy faces de-risking by Europe and new tariffs from the United States.
Russia – South Caucasus
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) A month ago, Moscow feared it was losing its influence across the South Caucasus, most dramatically by pulling its “peacekeepers” early from Azerbaijan and some border guards from Armenia. Russia never lost the leverage that history, geography, and policy gave it and has not recovered what it gave up, but any losses have paradoxically helped it make important gains elsewhere. The Kremlin has managed to convince Azerbaijan that Russia will remain the paramount power in the region through exploiting massive protests in both Armenia and Georgia.
Moscow Starting to Regain Positions in South Caucasus – Jamestown
Russian War in Ukraine
(Maria Avdeeva – Atlantic Council) Residents of Kharkiv have been monitoring reports with increasing urgency for the past five days as a new Russian offensive edges closer to the city. The stresses of war are nothing new to the Kharkiv population, which has been under daily bombardment since the start of the current year. Nevertheless, the opening of a new front less than half an hour’s drive from the city’s northern suburbs has raised the stakes dramatically.
Anger and defiance in Kharkiv as advancing Russian troops draw closer – Atlantic Council
Slovakia
(Atlantic Council) On Wednesday, a gunman shot Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico five times during a public appearance, leaving Fico hospitalized in “very serious” but stable condition. The evidence so far shows that the shooting was politically motivated, according to Slovakia’s interior minister. The populist, Euroskeptic Fico is serving as prime minister for the third time, having returned to the post in October 2023, and Slovakia recently elected a like-minded president to serve alongside him.
Ukraine – NATO
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are entering into bilateral security agreements with Ukraine outside the alliance’s and the North Atlantic Treaty’s framework. This procedure seems to de-couple allied assistance to Ukraine from the country’s NATO accession process and to delay that process, potentially developing into a substitute for Ukrainian membership. Bilateral agreements with Ukraine will need to be integrated into a NATO strategy to defeat Russia in Ukraine and contain Russia in Europe, as well as connect them to Kyiv’s accession process.
Bilateral Security Agreements as Part of Ukraine’s NATO Accession (Part One) – Jamestown
USA
(Jason E. Shelton – Brookings) In recent decades, we have witnessed major structural transformations and cultural developments that have profoundly impacted the Black Church, and these changes have strongly influenced political attitudes and political affiliations among African Americans. Today’s Black Church is primarily comprised of four traditions: Baptists, Methodists, Holiness/Pentecostals, and non-denominational Protestants. Some quick religious history and demographic information sets the tone for understanding changing politics among African Americans; the former traditions were established more than a century ago, while non-denominationals (i.e., nondenoms) were nearly nonexistent but have multiplied their flock several times over since the late 1980s.
The Black Church and the 2024 presidential election | Brookings
USA – China
(Anshu Siripurapu and Noah Berman – Council on Foreign Relations) U.S.-China trade exploded in the two decades after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This trade has benefited U.S. and Chinese consumers and companies, but officials in Washington are increasingly concerned about the risks posed by Beijing’s state-led development. President Trump imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese goods. President Biden has maintained them and introduced several new trade restrictions.
The Contentious U.S.-China Trade Relationship | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA – Pacific Islands
(Alan Tidwell – ASPI The Strategist) After more than four years of negotiation, economic-assistance funding has been approved under the Compacts of Association, the agreements that govern US relations with Marshall Islands, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia. But will US policymakers, diplomats and legislators stay focused on engaging with those and other Pacific island countries? Or will attention fade?
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
